Gary Gray from millennimumweather.com issues 2005 forecast

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cycloneye
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Gary Gray from millennimumweather.com issues 2005 forecast

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 10, 2005 6:26 pm

http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/season.html

The most interesting part IMO of his outlook is about his landfall probabilities.I noticed that he has not mentioned Dr Grays April forecast of 13/7/3 instead he is commenting about the December outlook for the 2005 season which was 11 named storms,6 hurricanes and 3 major ones.And Gary Gray has 11/6/3 as his numbers for this outlook. Any comments about his outlook are welcomed.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 10, 2005 7:03 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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cajungal
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#2 Postby cajungal » Tue May 10, 2005 6:45 pm

:eek: So, it looks like Louisiana/MS/S Florida are at high risk this year.
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#3 Postby jdray » Tue May 10, 2005 8:06 pm

I like the way they breakdown the risk assesments. Easy to understand.
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#4 Postby Steve » Tue May 10, 2005 8:21 pm

I hate trying to navigate that site. I don't really much care for his work since the verification always outranks the success and predictions. He did get one thing right though, 2002's forecast was awful. So I give him credit for mentioning that. I don't mean to be overly negative but I hate the Trantech model as well. Heh.

But as he sees it, the Carolinas, Texas, LA/MS/AL and FL are all at reasonable risk this year. Who would have thought as much? :)

Thanks for the link.
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#5 Postby cajungal » Tue May 10, 2005 8:45 pm

:eek: That seems like that he puts everyone at high risk this year. OMG! That means start boarding your windows now! :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#6 Postby wolfray » Tue May 10, 2005 9:11 pm

He says Caroliinas are high risk. My belief is the central N Carolina coast is highest risk. The Morehead City/ Atlantic Beach area are over due....
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#7 Postby LaBreeze » Tue May 10, 2005 10:24 pm

Interesting to see how this pans out..
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#8 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed May 11, 2005 12:17 am

Hmm he says s fla and the bahamas could be in the high risk, kind of scary :eek:
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#9 Postby george_r_1961 » Wed May 11, 2005 2:29 am

Well I took my first serious shot at long range forecasting last month and Dr Gray and I both agreed on an increased threat to the Carolinas and New England as well as the Canadian Maritimes He didnt mention Long Island but I think thats a given here. Im not sure I agree with an increased risk to Bermuda though assuming the Bermuda High is still forecast to be stronger than normal.
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