cyclonaut wrote:Like the Bermuda High this dry May stuff is getting beaten like a rented mule.Of course its ok to research & experiment but please DO NOT base what might or might not happen later this season around what happens in May in South Fla.
In May of 1948 6.65 inches of rain was measured @ MIA (MIami International Airport) & later that year 2 CAT 3s hit South Fla & the Keys.Both hurricanes originated in the Carribean & no Bermuda High was needed as they came up from the South & SW.
In May of 1949 5.26 inches of rain was measured @ MIA & later that year a CAT 4 struck the Palm Beach area from the east.Apparently a ridge helped the hurricane move in a general W/NW direction until landfall in Palm Beach.Can you believe it!!! A Bermuda High was in place after a relatively wet May.
In May of 1950 3.27 inches of rain was measured @ MIA,certainly thats not that much but its far from a record dry May.Later that year Hurricane Easy hits Tampa & King hits Miami & again the Bermuda High has nothing to do with both storms.Again this shows that it can rain in May & that you don't need a Bermuda High to get a hurricane in Fla.
In May of 1960 3.47 inches of rain was measured @ MIA..again not that much thats about where we are @ now.Later that year Hurricane Donna came a calling & we all know what a legendary hurricane she was.
In May of 1964 a appreciable 4.64 inches of rain measured @ MIA & 2 hurricanes hit South Fla,Cleo & Isbell.Cleo hitched a ride on the Bermuda High for some of his journey & Isbell came up from the Caribbean.This is a great year that the Dry May & Bermuda High Fan Club can use to learn from.Hurricane Dora hit North Fla that year as well.3 hurricanes hitting Florida after a wet May in Miami who would have thunk it!
1.It was a fairly wet May & there was a Bermuda High present to move a storm in the general direction of South Fla.
2.The Bermuda High was about to cause Cleo to move South Fla & a trough came in a lifted Cleo north into South Fla which proves that timing between highs & troughs is the key.
3.Hurricane Isbell hit SW Fla once again proving that you don't need a Bermuda High to get hit by a hurricane in Florida.
In May of 1966 5.53 inches of rain was measured @ MIA & later that year Alma gives South Fla quite a scare as she passes just west of the Keys & SW Fla as a CAT 3 before hitting the panhandle.Alma dumped 7.70 inches of rain @ MIA so we did feel some good effects from her & later that season Inez buffeted the Keys.
So right there you have proof of year after year after year where "Dry Mays" & "Bermuda Highs" don't really mean much as there is little correlation between one or the other.We saw hurricanes hitting South Fla or Florida in general after normal to above normal rainfall in May & with or without Bermuda Highs.
The speculation is that there is more ridging off the EC when there is a dry May in Florida.Well I saw ridging & plenty of storms hitting South Fla even after May had appreciable rainfall.
& once again the Bermuda High is not the only method of transport for hurricanes as we saw plenty of them come up from the Caribbean.
Lets let the pieces fall into place this season & lets see what happens.I think more people are being mis-informed than informed with all this Dry May & Bermuda High speculation.
More #'s to think about..1962 was a very dry May with only 0.92 inches of rain @ MIA & there were only 5 NS & none came close to South Fla.
1967 was another fairly dry May & once again no storms touched South Fla or Florida as a whole for that matter.
There were many dry Mays in the 70s & 80s that produced NO hurricanes for South Fla..
So lets give the Bermuda High & Dry May theory a rest for a while..As this post shows there really is little to go on & to base your entire perception on a what appears to be a urban legend is not very smart & is only mis-informing the average Joe who might be new to this forum.
While I do appreaciate the hard work you've put in. CLearly there is evidence of increased risk of Hurricane hits for very dry seasons as compared to very wet seasons. So, keep an eye on the rainfall folks. Dry as a bone here in Tampa so far and predicted to stay that way for another week at least. Don't believe - have a read.
By Maya Bell
Miami Bureau
Posted April 27 2005
MIAMI -- Just about everybody knows that April showers bring May flowers, but weather forecaster Jim Lushine has discovered something just as commendable about rainy Mays: They might ward off hurricanes.
During 33 years of predicting South Florida's weather, Lushine, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Miami, has found a link between May rainfall and the chances of hurricanes striking South Florida.
When May rainfall exceeds the regional average of 5 inches, the risk decreases. But when rainfall is less than normal, the likelihood of a strike increases. "It's kind of the lynchpin on whether it will be an active season for us," Lushine said.
His outlook for this May: perhaps normal, which Lushine said could mean some close calls for South Florida.
Lushine is quick to note that there are no guarantees. But bolstering his theory, last May turned out to be a very dry month, with just 2 inches of rain.
And lest anyone need any reminders, an unprecedented four hurricanes struck Florida last year. Two storms, Frances and Jeanne, made landfall in southeast Florida, near the St. Lucie and Martin county line.
In contrast, May 2003 dumped a whooping 14 inches of rain on the area and, if Lushine's theory holds water, shielded the region from what was an even more active hurricane season than last year's, which produced 15 named storms.
Of the 16 named storms in 2003, only Tropical Storm Henri bothered Florida, and just barely. By the time it crossed Central Florida, Henri was just a pesky tropical depression.
"These are two extremes, with 2003 being great for us and 2004 being terrible for us," Lushine said. "What usually happens is something in between those kinds of patterns, and that's the kind of pattern we're in right now. It looks like this May could be a `tweener year."
That could mean the six-month 2005 hurricane season, which begins June 1, may be reminiscent of the 1999 season, when a parade of storms marched toward Florida but veered north before striking. The most memorable example was Floyd, a behemoth that taunted Florida's east coast before slamming the Carolinas.
Like all hurricanes, Floyd's path was controlled by the transient low and high pressure systems in the atmosphere, the same lows and highs that influence South Florida's rainfall.
When they're near, low-pressure systems generally protect Florida during hurricane season. Spinning counterclockwise, the same direction as a hurricane, they push storms away. Lighter in weight, they also allow air to rise, producing more rain -- hence, the correlation Lushine found between rainy Mays and fewer hurricanes.
Conversely, high-pressure systems blow clockwise, blocking hurricanes from changing course. Heavier in weight, they also cause air to sink, producing less rain.
So, what makes May so special in determining hurricane activity?
May, Lushine said, usually marks the transition between South Florida's two seasons, wet and dry, and the pressure patterns present during the month often persist.
"May controls our rainy season, and something that is strong enough to cause the rainy season to come earlier or later is strong enough to last the whole season," he said.
Lushine first noticed the link between dry Mays and increased hurricane probabilities in South Florida in 1992, the same year Hurricane Andrew, a top-of-the-chart Category 5, leveled much of south Miami-Dade County.
That May proved to be the second driest on record, producing only 0.9 inches of rain. The driest May, with 0.6 inches of rain, Lushine found, came in 1965, the year Hurricane Betsy, a major Category 3 storm, swamped the upper Keys.
Lushine said he didn't think much of the coincidence until Andrew struck. Then he started reviewing May data, finding the third driest May in 1935, when the Labor Day hurricane, the strongest on record to hit the United States, slammed into the Keys.
Plotting 75 years worth of May rainfall data, Lushine found the probability of a hurricane striking South Florida almost tripled after a very dry May. Conversely, the chances of a hurricane striking South Florida after a wet May were three times less. Others are skeptical, but after 42 years with the weather service, Lushine, 60, has enough faith in his May theory that he plans to pin his retirement on next month's rainfall. "If it's wet, I'll stick around to the end of September," he said. "If it's dry, I'm going to wave bye-bye and head to Alaska."
