Latest POAMA model= less chance of El Nino

[hurricanetrack]

Check this out- the Australian POAMA model continues to reduce its percentage chances of an El Nino during the Atlantic hurricane season:

ENSO probabilities from POAMA forecasts 11/ 4/2005 - 10/ 5/2005:
Outlook for: Jun
2005 Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005
Mean temperature 0.36 0.75 1.02 1.07 1.08 0.99 0.85
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Model neutral frequency 83.3% 55.7% 38.2% 39.4% 33.0% 42.8% 47.7%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 16.7% 44.3% 61.8% 60.6% 67.0% 57.2% 52.3%
NB: "warm" is defined as an exceedance of +0.8°C, while "cool" is defined as falling below –0.8°C.

I highlighted the numbers that stick out. Basically, when we reach Aug/Sept/Oct- the chances of an El Nino are now DOWN to ~63 percent. After that time, the chances are reduced even further.

So....

I guess Dr. Gray and NOAA will have quite a forecast for us here in the coming weeks. With almost all likelihood of an El Nino out of the way, it looks like the '05 hurricane season has been cleared for take off. Now- the question will be, where will it land?

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

Debate about having el nino or not during the 2005 season is over.

[canegrl04]

Get ready for hurricane season 2005

[Javlin]

Yea Luis but there is one out there somewhere holding out against the odds.

[cycloneye]

Yea Luis but there is one out there somewhere holding out against the odds.

What do you mean casper?

[cycloneye]

Jun
2005 Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005
Mean temperature 0.24 0.60 0.86 0.91 0.93 0.84 0.72
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Model neutral frequency 90.2% 69.0% 51.3% 46.1% 41.1% 53.1% 58.1%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 9.8% 31.0% 48.7% 53.9% 58.9% 46.9% 41.9%


The latest update from this model shows that the % to have el nino continues to decrease now from the 60% range to the 53.9,August,58.9 In September and goes down in october to 46.9.Interesting that this Australian model which has been very bullish towards el nino developing in 2005 is backing down.

[hurricanetrack]

YAAY!

[MGC]

I predicted way back in January that there would be no El Nino. Yee of little faith.........MGC

[LAwxrgal]

How exactly does El Nino affect hurricane development?

[cycloneye]

How exactly does El Nino affect hurricane development?

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html

At link there is a whole explanation about what el nino is and how it affects the climate around the world and how it affects the hurricane seasons.

[LAwxrgal]

How exactly does El Nino affect hurricane development?

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html

At link there is a whole explanation about what el nino is and how it affects the climate around the world and how it affects the hurricane seasons.

Thanks. So...in other words, the warmer the water in the Atlantic basin, the greater the probability for an active season?

[cycloneye]

How exactly does El Nino affect hurricane development?

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html

At link there is a whole explanation about what el nino is and how it affects the climate around the world and how it affects the hurricane seasons.

Thanks. So...in other words, the warmer the water in the Atlantic basin, the greater the probability for an active season?

Yes those warm waters are the fuel to the development of systems.

[Ixolib]

...With almost all likelihood of an El Nino out of the way, it looks like the '05 hurricane season has been cleared for take off. Now- the question will be, where will it land?

Well, no matter where it (they) lands, there are no doubts that you'll be right in the thick of things... Looking forward to that!!

[cycloneye]

Jun
2005 Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005
Mean temperature 0.20 0.54 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.79 0.67
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Model neutral frequency 91.8% 72.4% 54.6% 49.4% 44.4% 56.4% 61.4%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 8.2% 27.6% 45.4% 50.6% 55.6% 43.6% 38.6%


Hey Mark they keep backing down the % of warm enso. Look at may 16 update at the warm frequency line.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for: Jun
2005 Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature 0.16 0.49 0.76 0.82 0.82 0.74 0.63 0.39
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Model neutral frequency 95.1% 75.7% 58.0% 52.8% 47.7% 59.8% 64.7% 90.7%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 4.9% 24.3% 42.0% 47.2% 52.3% 40.2% 35.3% 9.3%


Dang !! the aussies keep sending the % of having el nino down.Look at the last line Model Warm Frequency and compare it with the data at posts above. They now have neutral conditions increasing for the rest of 2005.

[cycloneye]

Outlook for: Jun
2005 Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature -0.01 0.26 0.52 0.57 0.57 0.50 0.37 0.26
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.6%
Model neutral frequency 99.6% 91.4% 74.0% 66.1% 61.1% 73.1% 78.4% 90.4%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.4% 8.6% 26.0% 33.9% 38.9% 26.9% 21.4% 7.1%


Now the latest update from this Australians model continues to back down on el nino.Look at the last line the Model Warm Frequency.Those % were in the 60's (Check the top post from Hurricanetrack,Mark) but now are in the 30's.And la nina gets a minmal % but is the first time this model gives la nina a %.

[TropicalWXMA]

Hmmm.......... I can't wait whne things start to get heated up!!!!!

[StormChasr]

Hmmm.......... I can't wait whne things start to get heated up!!!!!

Good, that means you are moving to South Florida? lololol

[cycloneye]

Jun
2005 Jul
2005 Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006
Mean temperature -0.08 0.17 0.45 0.52 0.51 0.47 0.35 0.25
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 2.3% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.3%
Model neutral frequency 97.2% 89.7% 77.3% 69.4% 64.4% 76.4% 79.3% 91.2%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.4% 7.2% 22.7% 30.6% 35.6% 23.6% 20.5% 6.4%


The model warm frequency % for el nino continues to go down now the highest 35.6% down from 38.9% two days ago.