Low pressure to develop in SW Carib...

[hurricanetrack]

This is an excerpt from a recent Offshore Waters Forecast from TPC:

SYNOPSIS HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF AREA THROUGH THU. BROAD LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI THEN GRADUALLY LIFT NNE TO NEAR E CUBA THROUGH MON.

You can plainly see this low pressure on the 18Z GFS at the surface and 850mb. It sctoots off over the Greater Antilles and in to the Atlantic. Water temps are plenty warm down there- so we'll see....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Itcz is alot more Active over the Eastern Pacific today. With areas of convection below 10 north. A tropical wave by surface maps is located around 95 west/10 north. The Eastern pacific appears to be favable near this area. But very unfavable to the

Current overall surface map As of 10pm pst.
This shows that the high pressure over the southeastern United states with a pressure of 1017 millibars. While a area of lower pressure is over the southwestern Caribbean.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif

A area of low pressure forecasted to develop over the southwestern Caribbean.

24 hours...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

24 hours clearly shows that a area of slightly low pressure has started to develop.

48 hour surface map...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

At 48 hours a area of low pressure has developed. It shows that the pressure to the north has increased to around 1020 millibars. Which helps to pile the air/Heat up into a smaller area. Which flows across the Itcz around 10 north.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

At 72 hours the ridge has grown even more strong. But a trough is moving into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The area of low pressure moves to the northeast across the tropical trough.


The area of pressure forms over the next 12 to 18 hours.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=018hr


At 36 hours the location of low pressure is 16 north/78 west. Also notice the high pressure over the southeastern Canada. That high pressure also drops into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=036hr


At 48 hours the high pressure is very strong. Also the Itcz is being pulled into a smaller area. Kind of like when wind moves through a small area. It picks up or gets stronger. That is one of the ways why this theory works. At this time low pressure around 77.5 west/16 north.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=048hr

Also the Gfs shows a strong high pressure to the north.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=012hr

24 hours
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=024hr

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=036hr


Both models kind of agree...

Look at wind shear levels at 12 hours through 24 hours. It appears that it is not favable.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=012hr


At 36 hours still not favable
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=036hr

But remember that if the area of low pressure, is moving along with the wind shear. It will be favable enough for development. Look at north Atlantic systems.


Also look at the 200 millibar level not favable through the next 24 to 36 hours.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=024hr

Zonal shear is not favable.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=024hr

So the area of convection over the southwestern Caribbean, is the area to watch. But development looks to be quite unfavable, unless it moves with the winds. Just to point out how unfavable it is look at the latest wind shear map. It shows that the area has 30 to 45 knot wind shear. But the area of strongest shear has pushed northeast of yesterdays area. Where 80 to 90 knot winds. To the southwest of the area is 10 to 20 mph. If that where to move into the caribbean things would become some what favable. Also remember models are not always(Shear models)Are not anywhere near good enough as of this time. So its a wait in sese.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Development at this time looks to be low.

[george_r_1961]

You are probably right. But of course we will watch anyway

[James]

Yes, it could be interesting.

[Rainband]

let the games begin

[LaBreeze]

At least it's something to watch.

[chadtm80]

[kevin]

Haiti needs trees....

Why do we let them still burn wood when we have coal? On arbor day we should send sapplings to Haiti.

[cycloneye]

A good flareup in the caribbean sea near Jamaica but it is all related to the upper trough and the subtropical jet stream but for now nothing that may turn tropical.Where you have to really look is way down to the SW Caribbean near Costa Rica and Nicaragua where there is already a broad low pressure to see what it does but I dont expect much unless the upper conditions are much better.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNBL.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNPC.html


Pressure down a little in Nicaragua.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MPBO.html

And in Panama.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SKBQ.html

The lowest pressure is in NW Colombia.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SKBQ.html