Invest 91L

[senorpepr]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

More to come...

[cycloneye]

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

The backup site has pic.

[Scorpion]

Yes! First invest of the year!

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a low is forming just east of Nicaragua. Definite cc spinning taking place with all the convection to the east of the ill-defined center. If this moves off to the ene as the models indicate it would lessen the impact of the shear a bit, but it would struggle greatly to form in my opinion at this point.

[senorpepr]

Invest (91L) (13/18Z)
12.5N 79.5W (220mi ENE of Colon, Panama)
25 mph

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it may have a chance if the shear dies down.

[Wpwxguy]

Okay, everybody put an extra cushion on your chair. You might need it. It does look very interesting down there, as it moves northeast it may actually have a chance to develop. However short lived it may be, its still exciting.

[senorpepr]

Shear would have to die down quite a bit...
...plus it's forecast to move toward the northeast, toward higher shear...

[James]

I wonder if a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement will be issued?

[senorpepr]

I wonder if a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement will be issued?

I would doubt that for the time being. The chance of development will be very difficult and increasingly moreso as it travels northeast. However, I could see an STDS issued as it approaches the Greater Antilles simply due to the rainfall potential.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear down 10 knots. Slowly it is building a slight better Enviroment but still unfavable. I hope it can pull it off.

[kevin]

Yes thats what I'm thinking. Regardless of development they are going to issue a STDS if it makes Haiti's mountains continue their movement towards the sea.

Storm2k should gather money for trees to Haiti. Of course the Haitians will burn them for charcoal. Therefore a member will have to guard them for thirty years of so. We could vote on who gets to go.

[wxman57]

Yep, shear is high now, but at least the GFS Indicates decreasing shear in 48-72 hours after the low crosses the DR. Lots of rain for the DR through PR Sunday/Monday. I think it may have a 40-50% chance of becoming a TD or Arlene beyond 48-72 hours, even with the shear. Shear would prevent it from becoming a strong storm, however. But it's heading NE and out to sea after moving past the DR.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with you wxman57. If this gets a LLC in the shear doe's decrease like what you pointed out. Then this very likely could become something. But if the shear doe's not decrease then not much of a chance.

[feederband]

yeah!!! Blob1

[MSRobi911]

I can't resist, I just can't..............................................








FISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





Mary
:roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao:

[MWatkins]

I can't even go away for a confrence...look what happens when I'm away!

Just looked at the 85H and 37H SSMI imagery from down there...perhaps some curvature...at least at 10am this morning...in the mid levels.

85H: http://152.80.49.216/tc_thumbs/20050513 ... VEST.x.jpg

37H: http://152.80.49.216/tc_thumbs/20050513 ... ST.91L.jpg

Quikscat from early this morning (5AM) shows unidirectional flow near the surface (rain contaminated though) with some 50 knot wind barbs thrown in:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... 1_91as.png

Looks like the GFS is seeing the disturbance in the lower levels and as mentioned before takes it toward Haiti in the next few days as it gets drawn up by west to east flow in the caribbean and lots of troughiness in the Atlantic.

Also...look at that big ol' 500mb trough sweepin' off the EC in 48 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048s.gif

SST's...also mentioned above...are adequate...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

But as Mr. Pepr notes lots of shear around...of course with all of that upper shear significant tropical development seems unlikely...but betcha we could see some minimal development in the next 48 hours or so.

MW

[Stormtrack03]

I can't resist, I just can't..............................................








FISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!





Mary
:roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao:

lmao yea definitely fish huh lol.

[cycloneye]

Looks like a Mid Level circulation and convection is displaced to the east of the circulation because of the shear.

[cyclonaut]

Whether it gets better organized or not its definatley not a "fish"..People in the Greater Antilles are most likely going to deal with a heavy rain event..A similar event last May killed thousands in Hispaniola.I would hardly declare that one a "fish".