Invest 91L

[wxman57]

It definitely won't affect the U.S., but we saw with Jeanne last year that heavy rain in Haiti/DR can cause tremendous loss of life. VERY weak TS Jeanne killed over 3000 people in Haiti. Rain from this system could be even heavier. So, I don't know that the term "fish" would apply.

Chances of it developing an LLC look very high, maybe 80-90% or higher. Weak tropical storms can form in relatively high wind shear zones. Question is, will it form an LLC with convection displaced NE of the center and never be named? Pretty good chance of that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say if the shear can get less. In a nice LLC can set up we will have a tropical cyclone pretty fast. But don't look for the nhc to upgrade intill it has a eye forming.


I'm not saying we will because of the shear.

[feederband]

It definitely won't affect the U.S., but we saw with Jeanne last year that heavy rain in Haiti/DR can cause tremendous loss of life. VERY weak TS Jeanne killed over 3000 people in Haiti. Rain from this system could be even heavier. So, I don't know that the term "fish" would apply.

Chances of it developing an LLC look very high, maybe 80-90% or higher. Weak tropical storms can form in relatively high wind shear zones. Question is, will it form an LLC with convection displaced NE of the center and never be named? Pretty good chance of that.

And rememeber jeanne was supposed to be a fish after haiti/dr and look where it went.

[Rainband]

It definitely won't affect the U.S., but we saw with Jeanne last year that heavy rain in Haiti/DR can cause tremendous loss of life. VERY weak TS Jeanne killed over 3000 people in Haiti. Rain from this system could be even heavier. So, I don't know that the term "fish" would apply.

Chances of it developing an LLC look very high, maybe 80-90% or higher. Weak tropical storms can form in relatively high wind shear zones. Question is, will it form an LLC with convection displaced NE of the center and never be named? Pretty good chance of that.

And rememeber jeanne was supposed to be a fish after haiti/dr and look where it went.

bite your tongue

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Jeane was a Kyle like storm.

[KatDaddy]

First Invest

Hear we go. Getting closer to that time of year.

Way too much shear for any developement but may have a chance in the E PAC.

[Rainband]

First Invest

Hear we go. Getting closer to that time of year.

Way too much shear for any developement but may have a chance in the E PAC.

it will move ene or ne not west

[Aquawind]

Pretty wild.. No wonder when I sat down next to Mr Stewart last Wednesday we spent 30 plus minutes checking it out via the web in the Internet Cafe at the Florida Hurricane Conference.. Clearly a very wet event ahead. GFS still has a pretty healthy low moving off to the ~NE... Busy season ahead according to everyone I spoke with at the conference..

Paul

[Brent]

Hurricane Season is officially underway!!!

[jeff]

Low, mid, and upper air analysis of the SW Caribbean Sea suggest that a surface low has not formed. Cyclonic curvature is noted at the 200-150mb (maybe a weak trough with some hint of weak downstream ridging) level over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea with strong downstream upper air divergence E of dying convective blowup. A review of late day visible images supports the thinking of no surface low. IR images this evening do indicate some turning which appears to be based in the mid levels and may be the remains of a MVC from earlier convection.

Upper level shear profiles have weakened on the order of 10-20kts over the past 24 hours in the small area of the SW Caribbean Sea off the C American coast. Upper level winds are running around 10-15kts across this area. However 500 to 300mb winds are slightly stronger on the average of 20-25kts, but have also shown a weakening tendency. With that said, it should clearly be noted that mid and upper level shear greatly increases roughly 100-150 miles N of the system along the southern edge of the sub-tropical jet.

Forecast models suggest a surface low will develop in this region and track NNE to NE toward the islands of E Cuba and Hispanola. The GFS is fond of a 1004mb low along the south coast of E Cuba in the coming days. There is a slight chance of sub-tropical or even tropical cyclone development in this region, however the shear will be a beast to overcome and I would side with sub-tropical or more likely nothing.

Regardless of development, very heavy to life threatening rainfall can be expected of parts of Cuba, Hispanola, and Puetro Rico over the next 2-4 days as the entire mess moves NE. PWS on the order of 1.8-2.1 inches along with favored low level upslope wind flow will result in extreme rainfall amounts. Some areas could easily pick up 15-20 inches over the next 2-3 days resulting in debris and mud flows.

[Rainband]

Thanks Jeff for that detailed explanation Bad News for those area's under the gun. Stay safe everyone in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Low, mid, and upper air analysis of the SW Caribbean Sea suggest that a surface low has not formed. Cyclonic curvature is noted at the 200-150mb (maybe a weak trough with some hint of weak downstream ridging) level over the extreme SW Caribbean Sea with strong downstream upper air divergence E of dying convective blowup. A review of late day visible images supports the thinking of no surface low. IR images this evening do indicate some turning which appears to be based in the mid levels and may be the remains of a MVC from earlier convection.

Upper level shear profiles have weakened on the order of 10-20kts over the past 24 hours in the small area of the SW Caribbean Sea off the C American coast. Upper level winds are running around 10-15kts across this area. However 500 to 300mb winds are slightly stronger on the average of 20-25kts, but have also shown a weakening tendency. With that said, it should clearly be noted that mid and upper level shear greatly increases roughly 100-150 miles N of the system along the southern edge of the sub-tropical jet.

Forecast models suggest a surface low will develop in this region and track NNE to NE toward the islands of E Cuba and Hispanola. The GFS is fond of a 1004mb low along the south coast of E Cuba in the coming days. There is a slight chance of sub-tropical or even tropical cyclone development in this region, however the shear will be a beast to overcome and I would side with sub-tropical or more likely nothing.

Regardless of development, very heavy to life threatening rainfall can be expected of parts of Cuba, Hispanola, and Puetro Rico over the next 2-4 days as the entire mess moves NE. PWS on the order of 1.8-2.1 inches along with favored low level upslope wind flow will result in extreme rainfall amounts. Some areas could easily pick up 15-20 inches over the next 2-3 days resulting in debris and mud flows.

I am in one of the greater antilles islands Puerto Rico.We haved already recieved a good deal of rain (Over 9.00 inches in parts of the island) thanks to the frontal trough,surface trough,tropical wave and subtropical jet stream and if that comes our way it would be a massive flooding event as the grounds are oversaturated after 6 days raining.And the orografic factor makes things worse. Great explanation of the situation Jeff.

[senorpepr]

But don't look for the nhc to upgrade intill it has a eye forming.

Easy there...

They'll upgrade it when it deserves to be upgraded.

[P.K.]

From the 7:51am GMT TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA....
WET WEATHER ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF CUBA THRU THE NE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ALONG 80W
SPARKING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM
IS POSITIONS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W THRU
HISPANIOLA WITH OCCASIONALLY PIECES OF UPPER ENERGY AND DIURNAL
HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 16N E OF 75W.
HEAVY RAINS ARE NOW FALLING THRU THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
NE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 16.5N E OF 64.5W NEAR AN AREA OF
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ALONG ABOUT 81W S
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
SCATTERED TSTMS COULD REDEVELOP E OF NICARAGUA SIMILAR TO LAST
NITE THOUGH DEVELOPMENT MIGHT BE A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD. WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ALREADY S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-78W. EXPECT
MORE ENHANCED RAINS ACROSS JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS PROLONGED EVENT HAS A HIGH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER
HISPANIOLA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM S OF JAMAICA OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH SLY
WINDS BRINGING UP EVEN MORE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY
EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN.

[senorpepr]

Give a gold star to that forecaster for using the word, 'exacerbating.'

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN SEA....
WET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES E OF CUBA THRU
THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CUBA
TO E PANAMA SPARKING ROUND AFTER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY
RAINS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
PUERTO RICO AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH NEARS WITH STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE SUBTROPICAL
JETSTREAM LINGERS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N76W THRU
HISPANIOLA. EARLIER HEAVY RAINS FROM THE US VIRGIN ISLANDS THRU
THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE WEAKENED BUT LIGHTER SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
REDEVELOPING S OF HISPANIOLA TO 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W. ANOTHER
AREA OF FOCUS IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH REMAINS ALONG ABOUT 81W S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS W OF
UPPER TROUGH. TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH'S ALIGNMENT WITH THE LOWER TROUGH... AS THE
LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE-LADEN WESTERN PORTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MID-LEVEL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS
NOTED NEAR 13N78W MOVING NE... HELPING TO FIRE A FEW TSTMS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN NRN S
AMERICA INTO THE ABC ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM S OF JAMAICA OVER THE WEEKEND...
WITH SLY WINDS BRINGING UP EVEN MORE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
EXACERBATING THE FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN.

$$
BLAKE




The above is part of the discussion at 8:05 AM EDT from TPC with Blake as the forecaster and he is one of the best doing this.In other words what he says is that it is a mess down there but the main threat will be the copius amounts of rain that the greater antilles will get from this.

[chadtm80]

We will continue to monitor and keep you updated via our homepage as well.. http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[sunny]

We will continue to monitor and keep you updated via our homepage as well.. http://www.storm2k.org/wx

I'm counting on that, too!!

[hcane]

I think it important to note that this is an area considered to be an "investigation" only by the NRL, not by the NHC. There is no flight planned as of yet.

[x-y-no]

Well, I lose my bet ... I said this wouldn't get an invest.

Jan