All Posters MUST read before posting in this forum

[chadtm80]

Storm2k.org has implemented a new policy for the 2005 season and all seasons to follow.. If you post a forecast in this forum it MUST be preceded by the following..

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If a forecast is made without using the disclaimer we will add it for you and send a reminder PM.. If it is "forgotten" repeatedly your posts will be removed, and your membership with storm2k may be removed as well.. This is for the safety of everyone. Please abide by it

Here is to a safe 2005 Tropical Season!!

Thanks,
Storm2k Management

All readers of the storm2k Forum please read the "disclaimer" above as it applies for everything found here within

[StormChasr]

That is excellent--Chad. Makes lots of sense, as some less experienced people might think it is an official NHC announcement. Great idea!! Thanks.

[Stephanie]

Everyone should copy and paste that disclaimer somewhere and save it for the time they decide they want to share their opinion.

[dixiebreeze]

Chad, I'm a little uncertain what constitutes a "forecast." Does this mean any and all speculation or ???? Thanks!

[mf_dolphin]

Dixie this is designed for people who issues forecasts or discussions that might be misconstrued to be official. Several people copy or at least use similar formats to official products and we want to make sure that there is no confusion when lives may be at stake later in the year.

[LaPlaceFF]

But of course,.......liability issue.

[BayouVenteux]

Everyone should copy and paste that disclaimer somewhere and save it for the time they decide they want to share their opinion.

I think we will need some clarification going forward. For example, if I were to simply post:

Looks to me like "Hurricane X" could be headed toward the Big Bend area of Florida if this trough starts to have an effect.

Would I still need a disclaimer? My guess is no.

Now, no doubt if I were to post one of these sorts of things (which we are all too familiar with)...

HURRICANE X FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
MBHC MAKE BELIEVE HURRICANE CENTER NEW ORLEANS LA1500Z TUE SEP 16 2005

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM APPALACHICOLA BAY TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CEDAR KEY,FL TO HOMOSASSA SPRINGS,FL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SOUTH OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECASTER BAYOUVENTEUX

...THAT darn well better have a prominent disclaimer.

In my opinion, with the exception of the few approved mets (who will be posting their views on specific storms mainly on the new dedicated forum anyway), the lay people ought be discouraged from posting in manner of the whole fantasy "hurricane center bulletin" schtick, period. That would save a lot of unnecessary confusion by people unfamiliar with the S2k boards who visit for the first time during the heat of a landfall threat.

[x-y-no]

I think we will need some clarification going forward. For example, if I were to simply post:

Looks to me like "Hurricane X" could be headed toward the Big Bend area of Florida if this trough starts to have an effect.

Would I still need a disclaimer?

I'll defer to the owners and mods, of course, but I'd say that clearly does not need a disclaimer.

...

In my opinion, with the exception of the few approved mets (who will be posting their views on specific storms on the new forum anyway), the lay people ought be discouraged from posting in manner of the whole fantasy "hurricane center bulletin" schtick, period. That would save a lot of unnecessary confusion by people unfamiliar with the S2k boards who visit for the first time during the heat of a landfall threat.

I agree. However, there is a lot of territory inbetween these two extremes. I, for one, intend to at least take a stab at doing track and intensity forecasts out to three days or so, assuming I don't find the task too arduous. Now I'm not about to try and make them look all official, as in your example above, but by neccesity they'll contain formatted data and discussion which could concievably be mistaken for official. That's the kind of thing I see the above disclaimer being designed for.

Jan

[BayouVenteux]

Good point Jan. The somewhat annoying bulletin format aside, there's enough technical terminology and real data mixed in with opinions on the boards that the neophyte member or new visitor could misconstrue as something close to official during the height of a landfall threat.

[dixiebreeze]

Dixie this is designed for people who issues forecasts or discussions that might be misconstrued to be official. Several people copy or at least use similar formats to official products and we want to make sure that there is no confusion when lives may be at stake later in the year.

OK Dolphin. just trying to get things clarified. It seemed a bit nebulous. I guess to be safe, it will be good to post the disclaimed when there is any doubt. Thank you.

[Stephanie]

I'm sure that there will be some discussions later on as to what people may or may not think would be construed as a forecast. Good points were brought up by all, but I guess the best thing to do is to err on the side of caution.

[vbhoutex]

It is indeed a liability issue. It is also designed specifically for those that may come her and see something such as the MBHC forecast above.

The staff will be stringently enforcing this. It is not meant at all to discourage anyone posting a "forecast". I might suggest that those that want to post "forecasts" do two things. 1st, you must use the disclaimer-2nd-Why not begin by saying "My analysis of Hurricane X..." or something similar. The furtherest thing from our minds is discouraging those who are here to learn and enjoy the weather. Good "forecasting" or analysis requires that one take some time and look at all the tools available to them to make determinations as to what and why a system will do what it does. That is encouraged and in fact you will find the more seasoned "analysts" including the professional mets on this site will be more than happy to discuss and teach. What we will not do is argue with others, not because we are better, but because that accomplishes nothing except hard feelings. And most of all when and if you disagree with someones analysis, do it respectfully.

[kevin]

this is good stuff. Thanks chad/dolphin!

[cyclonaut]

If someone types a forecast like the one above trying to make it look official one has to wonder about that persons motives..

[cycloneye]

I am posting a disclaimer even if it is not a long discussion.