Interesting Quikscat for 91L tonight.....

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... TCF_NAME=1

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like we got are selfs a LLC by the looks of it. Maybe open on the southern side. More or less. But it is on the Southwestern Side of that ball of convection. Last night I side that the shear would increase for a time 12 to 24 hours off. Then Decrease afterwards for a short time. We will have to see if this makes it through.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The shear maps shows that the wind shear over the system has decreased. In a Upper high has formed off to the west of it. With a area of 5 to 10 knot shear. But to the north 90 knot shear. If that came south Bye bye LLC or what ever.

Looking at the Quickscats shows that it looks more like a trof but remember it did that with hurricane Charley. Alot more later!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at satellites shows that any center would be around 15 north just south of Jamica. This system really doe's not impress me that much.'

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfs shows that that upper level high builds in over the western Caribbean. Over the next 24 to 48 hours. But it also takes what ever this is off to the east or northeast.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[MWatkins]

Matt...

That graphic you posted shows a pretty good fetch of westerlies near and north of 15N...which is the forecast postiton of whatever is there in 2 days time.

Unless this system can stay south of 15 and west of 80 it's gonna get hammered by upper winds.

MW