UKMET has an EPAC to Carib Crosser....

[Derecho]

At 12Z on the 15th; Follow the vort; goes from the EPAC across Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras to the Carib...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

For amusement purposes only; If this actually happens, then I'm President of Accuweather.

[kevin]

Interesting stuff, how often do these type of events happen in the real world, and during what time in the season? It seems counter intuitive since almost everything in the EPAC goes out to sea and when storms do hit Mexico they seem to mostly be glancing blows.

[MGC]

The GFS spins up a low in EPAC and moves it into C America. I also doubt it happens. An EPAC system crossing over has happened before but it is a rather rare occurance...MGC

[kevin]

Yes I checked the GFS also. It brings the low slower to central america and then seems to pull energy from it into the Caribbean but I'm not sure.

[Derecho]

Interesting stuff, how often do these type of events happen in the real world, and during what time in the season?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E13.html

"Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).

A Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became an Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and made landfall in TX."

Additionally, the Allison of massive Houston Flooding fame of 2001 was determined by NHC in their final report to have originated from an Eastern Pacific disturbance, though it had no advisories for it when it was in the EPAC.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001allison.html

"Satellite images and synoptic data indicate that Allison originated from a tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 21 May. The wave tracked westward at about 15 kt across the tropical Atlantic with little associated convection before moving inland over the northern part of South America on 26 May. It emerged over the southwestern Caribbean Sea on 29 May. The wave moved westward into the eastern North Pacific Ocean on 1 June, then slowed down over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. On 2 June, the wave produced a low-level cyclonic circulation centered about 200 n mi south-southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico.

On 3 June, low- to mid-level southwesterly flow in the southeast quadrant of the Mexican thermal low moved the broad cyclonic circulation inland over extreme southeastern Mexico and western Guatemala. The low-level circulation weakened and became ill-defined after moving inland, whereas the strong mid-level circulation remained intact and tracked northeastward over the southern Yucatan Peninsula early on the 4th. By 0000 UTC 5 June, the mid-level circulation had moved northwestward into the Bay of Campeche of the Gulf of Mexico."


It's incredibly rare to have a crosser, but it will happen again, eventually.

One of my little hobby horses, I always sort of check for and root for them; in the last 5 years there have been a few EPAC storms that have had model runs where they crossed, but they did not succeed in doing so in reality.[/i]

[kevin]

Cheering on the underdogs eh?

[jeff]

I may be mistaken, but I believe Jerry (1989) crossed over into the Gulf and went on the strike TX.

I did not know Allison 1 was a cross over storm.

[Derecho]

Yeah, GFS reasonably clearly has the same thing, has it crossing; then moving to the Florida Straits.

I'd bet money that a certain famous internet meteorologist confuses this crosser with the current INVEST system as he's often wont to not carefully look at models to follow vort centers.

[Huckster]

There are some other possible candidates, but these are the only storms for which I could find the first coordinate position as being in the Pacific.

[Aquawind]

This is crazy talk..lol..j/k Great thread..

Paul

[Javlin]

That ids pretty wild all the models are tring to pickup on something there except the CMC(72hrs out only).

[Derecho]

I'd guess it would be almost impossible to have one in July or August or early September, and that they're much more likely in May/June or October/November, due to the kind of synoptic setup you'd need to drag a storm NE out of the EPAC.

[HURAKAN]

Just great to start the season, just great! Well, who said that basins couldn't share cyclones! This may even help with international relationships. Everyone should learn to share!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is very interesting. The new 12z models also show it.

[jabber]

Everybody need to take a deep breath. Its May....

[GulfBreezer]

Everybody need to take a deep breath. Its May....

LOL.....wasn't it last year we started in APRIL??

[Anonymous]

That was 2003 with Ana in April.

Look at this crosser:


That was a Category 4 for the North Texas coast

[Stephanie]

Everybody need to take a deep breath. Its May....

LOL.....wasn't it last year we started in APRIL??

Yes we did!

[Anonymous]

Everybody need to take a deep breath. Its May....

LOL.....wasn't it last year we started in APRIL??

Yes we did!

Last year we began in August....in 2003 we began in April.

[HurricaneBill]

Just great to start the season, just great! Well, who said that basins couldn't share cyclones! This may even help with international relationships. Everyone should learn to share!

Australia and the South Indian Ocean share storms all the time!