Invest 91L

[cycloneye]

Less shear is shown at this grafic in the Caribbean but is much stronger to the north of the greater antilles.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A very powrful upper level high is trying to build over this. On the visible satelllites shows that we now have a trackable LLC. 5 to 20 knot shear over it now.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfdl doe's not move this or very little to the north then west.


NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 78.6 60./ 4.1
6 14.4 78.6 358./ 9.5
12 14.1 78.5 156./ 3.6
18 14.1 78.5 315./ .4
24 13.9 78.9 240./ 4.1
30 14.1 79.0 319./ 2.0
36 13.9 79.0 174./ 1.9

STORM DISSIPATED AT 36 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cyclonaut]

Its only mid-May...still got a long way to go..I guarantee we we'll see many canes in the not to distant future.

Personally I was never to enthusiastic about this Caribbean system amounting to much..I am a storm veteran baby!!I've tracked hundreds of these things & been in a couple hurricanes & tropical storms..It takes more than a disorganized sheared blob with NO chance to get me fired up.

[Hurricanehink]

Poof!

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD LOW PRES...1007 MB...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 14N79W ALONG A SFC TROF WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE PANAMA CANAL ZONE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
SHOW THE LOW TO BE QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH TWO SEPARATE
CIRCULATIONS NEAR 13N79W AND 16N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 12N79W AND IS ACTUALLY PUTTING DETRIMENTAL
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE N HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND PUSHING MOST OF
THE CONVECTION TO THE E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 69W-76W...REMAINING GENERALLY OVER
OPEN WATER. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS PLENTY OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
AND EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 79W...INCLUDING OVER
HISPANIOLA. THE BROAD LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A DUO OF DEVELOPING SYSTEMS OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CNTRL
AMERICA BY MID-WEEK AS THEY TRACK GENERALLY TO THE E.


8:05 PM EDT Discussion from TPC.Nothing that will develop only plenty of rain for the greater antilles.At the end of discussion Berg mentions whatt some models have as a scenario the crossover.

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD SURFACE LOW...1007 MB...REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S
OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS
E CUBA AND S INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW CONTINUES TO BE
DIFFICULT TO OBSERVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO DENSE
CLOUDINESS. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 12N68W AND IS PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AND PUSHING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE E. AREA OF
DENSE CLOUDS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COVERS THE AREA THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 76W. FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 68W-77W. SW CARIBBEAN HAS PLENTY OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF THE LOW
WITH THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS.

8:05 AM EDT discussion of caribbean by TPC.

Dead for tropical development but a good soaker for PR and Hispanola.

[msbee]

is that coming our way, do you think? or will it go more Northeast and pass North of us?
Barbara

[cycloneye]

is that coming our way, do you think? or will it go more Northeast and pass North of us?
Barbara

You will get your rain there too but depending on where the low tracks it is more or less.The weak low should track north of St Marteen.

[msbee]

thanks Luis

[cycloneye]

No low anymore.Only rain,rain,rain.