First invest for EPAC

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cycloneye
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First invest for EPAC

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 16, 2005 10:38 am

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

The Atlantic had 91L which turned out to be nothing tropical .Let's see what this disturbance does in the EPAC.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 17, 2005 2:07 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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#2 Postby Aquawind » Mon May 16, 2005 10:42 am

That didn't take long.. lol.. Looks like it will take awhile to organize as well.. 8-)

Paul
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 16, 2005 10:44 am


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050516 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050516 1200 050517 0000 050517 1200 050518 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.4N 97.0W 9.9N 96.5W 10.5N 95.8W 11.5N 95.2W
BAMM 9.4N 97.0W 9.8N 96.7W 10.2N 96.3W 10.8N 95.9W
LBAR 9.4N 97.0W 10.0N 96.2W 11.0N 95.5W 12.6N 95.2W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050518 1200 050519 1200 050520 1200 050521 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.6N 95.0W 15.6N 94.6W 19.2N 93.2W 23.6N 89.5W
BAMM 11.4N 95.4W 12.9N 94.6W 14.6N 92.2W 18.3N 87.7W
LBAR 14.2N 95.1W 17.9N 94.5W 20.5N 91.9W 23.7N 83.9W
SHIP 36KTS 43KTS 44KTS 38KTS
DSHP 36KTS 43KTS 38KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.4N LONCUR = 97.0W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 97.5W DIRM12 = 71DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.1N LONM24 = 98.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Ummm this looks like the crossover according to the model guidance.
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#4 Postby Javlin » Mon May 16, 2005 10:51 am

I think it will be the system Luis

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#5 Postby Rainband » Mon May 16, 2005 10:53 am

Interesting :eek:
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#6 Postby KatDaddy » Mon May 16, 2005 10:59 am

The cross-over Invest......hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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#7 Postby KatDaddy » Mon May 16, 2005 11:03 am

From the TPC EPAC Tropical Weather Discussion

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS PERSISTED
IN THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. A CYCLONIC SWIRL DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING NEAR 9N97W AND WAS ANALYZED AS 1007 MB. A FEW TOWERING
CUMULUS CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ALONG A BAND OVER THE SE
QUADRANT. EXPECT THIS CIRCULATION TO MOVE LITTLE THE NEXT 24
HOURS THEN BEGIN TO MOVE N IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
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#8 Postby P.K. » Mon May 16, 2005 11:05 am

Interesting:

945

WTNT80 EGRR 160540

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.05.2005


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 9.2N 95.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 17.05.2005 9.2N 95.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.05.2005 9.6N 95.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 18.05.2005 10.5N 94.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.05.2005 11.7N 93.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.05.2005 12.9N 92.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 19.05.2005 13.3N 90.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 20.05.2005 13.9N 88.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.05.2005 16.8N 85.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 21.05.2005 17.7N 84.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.05.2005 18.5N 82.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.05.2005 19.0N 81.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 160540
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chadtm80

#9 Postby chadtm80 » Mon May 16, 2005 11:17 am

Image
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#10 Postby KatDaddy » Mon May 16, 2005 11:19 am

You can notice the rotation on the VIS loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#11 Postby Derecho » Mon May 16, 2005 11:36 am

Basically in the exact place with the exact motion as depicted by several models for 24+ hours previously....

Something to be remembered when all the tired old anti-model rants get posted this year.

Of course, it's far from guaranteed to make it across; Central America is mountainous and much depends on the speed and precise track, how wide the area crossed is.

Even if it doesn't cross, it will be unusual in that the Pacific coast of Guatemala or El Salvador almost NEVER have a landfalling storm.
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#12 Postby James » Mon May 16, 2005 12:01 pm

So do you guys suspect that this system may make it to Tropical Depression One-E a little while down the line?
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#13 Postby James » Mon May 16, 2005 12:52 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161625
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM PDT MON MAY 16 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGE CLOUD BAND IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART

$$
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#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 16, 2005 1:14 pm





GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.05.2005



TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 8.7N 97.4W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 16.05.2005 8.7N 97.4W WEAK

00UTC 17.05.2005 9.5N 96.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.05.2005 10.0N 95.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 18.05.2005 10.7N 94.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 18.05.2005 10.9N 94.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 19.05.2005 12.1N 94.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 19.05.2005 12.3N 94.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.05.2005 12.7N 93.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 20.05.2005 12.9N 91.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.05.2005 14.3N 90.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 21.05.2005 13.5N 88.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 22.05.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


Another run of the UKMET but crossover is not a sure bet because centralamerica is like a big hurdle.
Last edited by cycloneye on Mon May 16, 2005 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby Derecho » Mon May 16, 2005 1:17 pm

UKMET has slow movement now and it really sort of gets wiped out over Central America.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 16, 2005 1:54 pm

Image
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#17 Postby P.K. » Mon May 16, 2005 2:05 pm

12pm GMT ECMWF:

Image
Image
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#18 Postby Derecho » Mon May 16, 2005 2:09 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:What exactly does cross-over mean? lol, sorry i'm still kinda new, does that mean go from East Pacific to the Caribbean or Gulf?

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Sophomore Naples High School


Well, any EPAC to Atlantic or Atlantic to EPAC is a cross-over; Atlantic to EPAC is fairly common, EPAC to Atlantic is rare and more interesting.

Storms are renamed when they cross, btw.
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#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 16, 2005 2:09 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:What exactly does cross-over mean? lol, sorry i'm still kinda new, does that mean go from East Pacific to the Caribbean or Gulf?

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Sophomore Naples High School


That is exactly correct.A system crossing from the Eastern Pacific crossing CentralAmerica into the Caribbean or the Bay of Campeche.Dont be afraid to ask any question here because we will help you.
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#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 16, 2005 2:18 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (EP902005) ON 20050516 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050516 1800 050517 0600 050517 1800 050518 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.6N 96.5W 9.8N 96.0W 10.3N 95.6W 10.9N 95.4W
BAMM 9.6N 96.5W 9.5N 96.3W 9.7N 96.1W 10.1N 95.9W
LBAR 9.6N 96.5W 10.2N 95.4W 11.3N 94.6W 12.9N 94.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050518 1800 050519 1800 050520 1800 050521 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 95.5W 14.2N 95.5W 16.9N 93.3W 22.1N 88.1W
BAMM 10.8N 95.8W 12.3N 94.7W 14.9N 90.6W 19.4N 85.5W
LBAR 14.6N 94.1W 17.9N 92.9W 19.9N 89.1W 23.9N 81.2W
SHIP 36KTS 41KTS 40KTS 35KTS
DSHP 36KTS 30KTS 30KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 96.5W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 97.2W DIRM12 = 74DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 9.1N LONM24 = 97.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

The above is the 1800 UTC run of the tropical model guidance.
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