Finnally better weather in Puerto Rico (Edited)

#61 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 14, 2005 7:34 pm

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
400 PM AST SAT MAY 14 2005

SKIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO RANGED FROM VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE SOUTH HALF OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA...THE EXCEPTION OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON OCCURRED ACROSS VEGA BAJA...VEGA ALTA AND DORADO
WHERE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN TWO TO FOUR INCHES. THE WIND
WAS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...A VERY ENERGETIC AND UNSTABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER
ATMOSPHERE....WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT.

LOCAL SOILS REMAIN VERY WET OR SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...AND
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT.

A SUBTLE DECREASE IN MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA YESTERDAY PULLS FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR WEST AND NORTH ON
MONDAY...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL TRANSPORT
MORE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL REGION...MAINTAINING A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

Not a good outlook for the next several days here because of the grounds oversaturated.

#62 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat May 14, 2005 7:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

Here it comes.

#63 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat May 14, 2005 8:37 pm

any possibility that this low pressure system can hold on enough to make it into the Atlantic where there is less shear? What do the long range models take this thing 3+ days out. Will it begin moving back west with the presence of high pressure to the north or will it continue moving north and east out to sea?

#64 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat May 14, 2005 9:03 pm

all I have to say is that this feature in the Caribbean is very impressive. I don't remember many Mays with so much convection in the Caribbean...I think it can be attributed to 1) higher than normal SSTs and 2) lower than normal pressures across the Caribbean. If it weren't for the 50-80K shear from the west, we would have had Arlene already....despite this shear though, there's alot of convection....

#65 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun May 15, 2005 6:27 am

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 150841
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
430 AM AST SUN MAY 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL FACTORS COMING TOGETHER TO MAINTAIN A VERY WET
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEY ARE...THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTH OF
THE LOCAL REGION...A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
VERY GOOD VALUES OF THETA-E AND OMEGA...AND STRONG...MAINLY WEST
WINDS AT UPPER LEVELS. ALSO...THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY HUMID
ATMOSPHERE AT LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS...WITH PRECIP WATER OF 2.21
INCHES. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY
FROM LUQUILLO TO FAJARDO AND PARTS OF VIEQUES...WHERE DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES. A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS WILL BE AGAIN NUMEROUS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND RAIN COVERAGE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 DEGRESS LOWER THAN NORMAL.

THE WEATHER FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY. ACCORDING TO MODEL GUIDANCE...THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA MONDAY AND THEN INTO
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. SOME GOOD NEWS IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY...A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY INVADE THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN HAZARD FOR MARINERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND LOCALLY INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LOCAL SOILS REMAIN VERY WET OR SATURATED FROM RECENT
RAINS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MORE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LOCAL REGION...
MAINTAINING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

More of the same for Puerto Rico as more rain is forecast as that low moves our way from the SW.

#66 Postby **msbee** » Sun May 15, 2005 7:26 am

good morning Luis
thanks for the updates.
rain here today too. very light though . We did just had a brief thunderstorm.
very little wind still. It looks like it will take a while for this low to
get out of our area.

#67 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 16, 2005 6:07 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST MON MAY 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE PICTURES AND DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS CAME
ONSHORE ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE GENERALLY LIGHT.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
HISPANIOLA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THEN INTENSIFY AND MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
ARE EXPECTED TO PULL ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...
MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. IN THE MEAN TIME...A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 66 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND
PASS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL ALSO ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALL THE DYNAMICS
WILL BE IN PLACE TO HAVE ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES.

I am tired to see gray skies and rain for the past 7 days.I want to see the sun. :sun:

Let's see if after midweek it comes out.

#68 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 16, 2005 2:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
cycloneye wrote:

Here it comes.

This is what Puerto Rico is getting from what was 91L.Rain and more rain enhanced by the mountains.I will keep the members informed about anything bad that may occur although I dont expect anything tragic

#69 Postby **msbee** » Mon May 16, 2005 2:47 pm

We're getting it now too

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml
we are the little round island to the east of St. Thomas
It has just begun to rain very heavily here.
thunderstorms too.
Looks like there is more on the way.
I'm tired of this too!

#70 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 16, 2005 3:09 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST MON MAY 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
AFFECTED MAINLY THE SOUTHERN COASTS AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWER PRODUCED RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 3
INCHES IN SOME ISOLATED AREAS.

THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. ALL THIS WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED TO THE COMBINATION OF A OLD
BOUNDARY AND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 68W. THE
UPPER AND MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE UNSTABLE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LA HISPANIOLA BUT NO ALL MODELS HAVE THE SAME
TIMING. THE GFS MODEL IS DEVELOPING THE LOW LATER TONIGHT AND
MOVING IT OVER THE MONA CHANNEL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST
IS BASED ON THIS MODEL IF THE LOW DEVELOPS LATER...SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT US LATER AND THE ACTIVE
WEATHER WILL LINGER OVER OUR LOCAL REGION LONGER.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...AND THEN
INTENSIFY AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68 WEST IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TONIGHT. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA.

#71 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 16, 2005 3:57 pm

The above are the rainfall totals from May 5 until today.It shows how much rain has fallen in Puerto Rico because of various factors,Upper trough,Surface trough,2 tropical waves and a broad low pressure all the rain starting on may 5.At left of the grafic it shows the colors and the totals of the colors.

#72 Postby **msbee** » Mon May 16, 2005 4:10 pm

that's a neat graphic Luis
very impressive.
quite a bit of rain for you all.
and more to come too.
I hope there is not a problem with flooding.
that little thundersotrm we had a little while ago dumped
1 inch of rain on us in about 30 minutes.
with just that 1 inch of rain our roads were all flooded.

It's a good thing it is not raining constantly here..at least not yet!

Rainband · #73 Postby **Rainband** » Mon May 16, 2005 4:35 pm

Stay safe you guys and gals

Ola · #74 Postby **Ola** » Mon May 16, 2005 4:46 pm

Hey Luis, get ready for some very wet weather. Look at the GFS in 24 hours from now

I hope the word is spread tonight in the news. Floods kill people here every year.

#75 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 16, 2005 4:50 pm

Ola wrote:Hey Luis, get ready for some very wet weather. Look at the GFS in 24 hours from now

I hope the word is spread tonight in the news. Floods kill people here every year.

I haved seen the news at all the channels and they are leading the newscast with the weather.I hope too that nothing tragic occurs.

Rainband · #76 Postby **Rainband** » Mon May 16, 2005 4:53 pm

Keep us posted. STAY SAFE!!

#77 Postby **msbee** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:06 pm

thanks Rainband
I think we all will all be fine.
maybe a little bit wet! :lol:

I didn't know I had so many leaks in my house :lol:

I know flooding is a concern in PR and I hope that is not too bad for them.

Rainband · #78 Postby **Rainband** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:11 pm

Well I guess 91L is a good leak checking system :eek:

#79 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:11 pm

Rainband wrote:Keep us posted. STAY SAFE!!

I am very concerned about massive flooding as from may 5 it has been raining and the grounds are oversaturated.I will keep you and all informed.

cyclonaut · #80 Postby **cyclonaut** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:35 pm

Yes stay safe those discussions,maps & radars are disturbing.

Finnally better weather in Puerto Rico (Edited)

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