Low

[feederband]

What about that low thats spinning by the Texas/Mexico border fixing to get into gulf. Will that tap into that carib. moisture and be a rain maker over Florida down the road...???

[TampaFl]

Looks like it could be a wet weekend into the first part of next week.

FXUS62 KMLB 161933
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...
AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE 15Z CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS SOME DRYING IN
THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND.
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. A COLLISION OF THE EAST AND WEST SEABREEZES
SHOULD OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (AROUND 6 PM) OVER THE INTERIOR WEST
OF ORLANDO PRODUCING A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM STRETCHING FROM MARION COUNTY DOWN THROUGH LAKE AND
POLK COUNTIES IN SIMILAR LOCATIONS AS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY BOTH THE NAM12 AND THE GFS WHICH KEEP THE HIGHEST QPF VALUES WEST
OF CWA. GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ARE UNLIKELY TO MAKE IT BACK TO THE COAST.

TUE-WED...
WX PATTERN IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAG INTO THE PANHANDLE/NRN PENINSULA. A RATHER TIGHT ISENTROPIC
GRADIENT HAS PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
MEANWHILE...A CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST/OH RIVER VALLEY
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TOWARD THE MID ATLC/NEW ENGLAND REGION WHERE IT
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE N.

THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASINGLY SERLY FLOW OVER THE FL PENINSULA
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PULL HIGH AMOUNTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE CURRENTLY
RESIDING OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SERLY WINDS WILL ALINE THEMSELVES TO RIDE OVER THE
ISENTROPIC BOUNDARY AND INCREASE THE LOW/MID LVL LIFT. THE FINAL
KICKER WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE SRN BRANCH OF THE H30-H20
JET...CURRENTLY OVER THE SRN PENINSULA. CURRENTLY THE NRN JET
BRANCH OVER THE PLAINS IS DIGGING TO THE SE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE SRN BRANCH ON TUE...STRENGTHENING IT TO OVER 90KTS
BY GFS ESTIMATION. WHILE ITS POSITION WILL NOT BE OPTIMAL FOR THE
BEST UPR LVL DIVERGENCE...AS TEMPS AND MOISTURE INCREASE ANY DEGREE
OF UPPER LVL EVACUATION WOULD TEND TO INCREASE INSTABILITY.

TOWARD THIS END...WILL OPT FOR THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WRT POPS.
NUMBERS WILL BE LOWER ON TUE THAN ON WED AS THE H100-H70 FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK AT 5-10KTS...REQUIRING SOME TIME TO PULL THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE INTO THE STATE.

THU-MON...
LOOKING AHEAD...A RATHER ANOMOLOUS WX PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN THE
WORKS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A VERY DEEP CUTOFF H50 LOW
PRESENTLY CENTERED BETWEEN THE GREAT LAKES AND HUDSON BAY WILL DRIFT
VERY SLOWLY E TOWARD NEW ENGLAND/NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH 00Z SAT.
MEANWHILE...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG H25 JET (HIGHEST WINDS +160KTS)
SPANNING THE NRN PAC OCEAN WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD AND
WILL SUPPLY A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF ENERGY TO THE PAC NW REGION.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS JET WILL INDUCE A NEW H50 LOW OVER
THE PLAINS AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

THE LAST COUPLD OF GFS RUNS HAVE INDICATED THIS NEW LOW WILL MERGE
WITH THE H85-H50 CIRCULATION PATTERN OF THE NEW ENGLAND LOW...
EVENTUALLY CREATING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE ERN NORTH AMERICAN
CONTINENT. THIS COULD GENERATE RATHER WET WX PATTERN OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT DUE TO BEING ON THE ASCENDING SIDE OF A STRONG MID/UPR
LVL TROF...NOT IN THE TRADITIONAL FL WET SEASON SENSE THAT IS
NORMALLY DOMINATED BY THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

FURTHERMORE...LATEST MEASUREMENTS SHOW THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION (NAO) PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TO THE NEGATIVE AND IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN SO OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS. A NEGATIVE NAO
FAVORS LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLC...SO THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS
QUITE POSSIBLE. EXTENDED POPS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED...BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF FOR THEM TO DO SO. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIP
IN THE FCST THRU THE WEEKEND. &&

.MARINE...
NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. E/SE SFC/LOW
LVL WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMIANING NORTH OF THE
REGION. PGRAD MAY TIGHTEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 15KT WINDS BY LATE FRI
AS A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...BUT SCA CONDITIONS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...ISOLD IFR TSTORMS UNTIL 00Z
MAINLY WEST OF KMCO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 66 84 69 82 / 10 20 30 50
MCO 67 88 68 86 / 20 30 30 50
MLB 68 83 69 83 / 10 20 40 50
VRB 69 82 70 83 / 10 20 40 50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY/MOSES
LONG TERM....BRAGAW




[TampaFl]

And from NWS Tampa (TBW)

FXUS62 KTBW 161730
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2005

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WED)...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...SLOWLY...AS UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED
IN SUBTROPICAL JET MOVES SLOWLY EAST...FROM TEXAS THIS EVENING TO
THE CENTRAL GULF BY WEDNESDAY OPENING UP A BIT AS IT DOES SO.

PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...AS IS TYPICAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORM
"PRESEASON"...WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON AFTN SEA BREEZES AND POTENTIAL
FOR EVENING BACKTRACKING BASED ON PREVAILING DEEPER FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT BEST COVERAGE (SCATTERED) OVER EAST PORTION OF
INTERIOR ZONES...SLIPPING TO ISOLATED COVERAGE WESTWARD TO THE
INLAND COASTAL ZONES...AND NO RAIN NEAR THE BEACHES AND COASTAL
URBAN CENTERS THIS EVENING. FOR TUES...AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASES SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT BUILDING OF RIDGE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO REACH THE COAST
BEGINNING DURING THE MID AFTERNOON OVER SW FLORIDA AND INCHING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY...AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING (PRECIP WATER VALUES ABOVE
1.5) AND LOW LEVEL E FLOW SHOULD HELP A GENERAL PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE COAST BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. FOR NOW WILL NUDGE CHANCES
UP...BUT REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED RANGE WHICH IS 10-20 PERCENT BELOW
GUIDANCE AND SPLITS GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY. PREFER TO SEE EVENT
GET STARTED BEFORE JUMPING IN TOO FAST.

LONG TERM (WED NIGHT-SUN)...00/06Z MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR
FEATURES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ANOTHER LOW DIVING SOUTH OVER THE NRN GREAT PLAINS...AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NE GULF. AT THE SFC...RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER N
FL. S/W MOVING OVER AREA THU WILL ENERGIZE MORE TSTMS DURING THE
AFTN...SO WILL BUMP INLAND AREAS UP TO SCT RANGE.

AFTER THU...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS DEEPENS A SFC
LOW AHEAD OF THE SECOND LOW ABOVE. BY LATE FRI...THE UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND SFC FEATURES BECOME SOMEWHAT
UNREALISTIC WITH MULTIPLE LOWS OVER THE SE U.S. INCLUDING A TROPICAL
LOW OVER THE FL STRAITS. THE DGEX MAINTAINS THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...BUT ALSO DEVELOPS TROPICAL LOW OVER THE FL STRAITS THAT MOVES
VERY LITTLE SAT THRU MON. ECMWF AND NOGAPS LOOK MORE REALISTIC FOR
THE TIME OF YEAR WITH THE SFC HIGH BASICALLY MAINTAINING ITS POSITION
OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE MODELS AND CLIMO FOR
THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE. UPPER LOW FOR THESE MODELS ENDS UP OVER THE
GOMEX SUN AND MON...WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOME DEEP MOISTURE. AS THIS
IS OUT IN DAY 6 AND 7...WILL NOT PULL THE TRIGGER ON GOING WITH
HIGHER THAN 20 POPS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY LEAN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TUE-WED THEN PERHAPS EDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRI. ALL BETS ARE OFF FOR THE WEEKEND AS GFS CONTINUES TO BE
SHIFTY WITH ACTIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN. 12Z RUN NOW SHOWS A
CUTTING OFF 500 MB LOW TO OUR WEST FOR THE WEEKEND...WHILE 06Z
RUN SHOWED MORE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
STAY TUNED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD
HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK THROUGH THE PERIOD. VALUES COULD SNEAK
UNDER 40 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR ZONES TUESDAY...BUT NOT FOR VERY LONG.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 86 70 87 / 00 20 20 30
FMY 69 88 69 89 / 20 30 30 40
GIF 67 89 67 89 / 30 30 30 40
SRQ 67 85 67 85 / 00 00 20 30
BKV 62 88 62 88 / 20 20 20 40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BSG
LONG TERM....RJS