First invest for EPAC

James · #21 Postby **James** » Mon May 16, 2005 2:57 pm

The system looks to be consolidating a tad.

x-y-no · #22 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 16, 2005 3:01 pm

Just took a few minutes to look at the last few runs of the GFS too see what the trend is ...

GFS has been more and more bullish on developing this system over the last four runs. The runs are pretty consistent in terms of the overall picture - the latest (12Z) run has a strong TD/minimal TS going ashore.

The 18Z run should be complete through the pertinent timeframe in two hours or so. I'll post about it then.

Jan

Derecho · #23 Postby **Derecho** » Mon May 16, 2005 3:49 pm

SSD assigned "too weak" for a T-number at 1800Z but it looks improved since then; two clear bands.

James · #24 Postby **James** » Mon May 16, 2005 3:54 pm

Looks on the way to becoming a tropical depression.

x-y-no · #25 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 16, 2005 4:47 pm

First day of the year I'm sitting watching the GFS run roll out ... :-)

So far, the 18Z run is out to 30 hours - the overall picture very much like the 12Z, but the development is a little weaker so far.

Jan

x-y-no · #26 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:01 pm

GFS 18Z now out to 60 hours ... looking very close to the 12Z run (at 66 hours) now ...

x-y-no · #27 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:10 pm

Approaching Guatemala coast as a 1000mb low, not so good upper level support - looks like it would start deteriorating even if it weren't going ashore.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp0_072.shtml

x-y-no · #28 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:41 pm

Well, it doesn't look likely to cross over in any coherent form, of course ... but ... looking out to Friday night/Saturday morning, things don't look halfway bad for something in the central Carribean:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp0_102.shtml

The GFS isn't really sniffing it out, and looks disorganized at the mid-level, but there's a weak upper level high and a weak surface low with some convection. It'll be interesting to see if tomorrow's runs make any more of this.

Jan

Derecho · #29 Postby **Derecho** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:44 pm

The thing in the Central Carib also comes from the EPAC..further east. It's a tropical wave that's just south of Costa Rica/Panama right now, actually has a bit of cyclonic turning of its own.

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 16, 2005 5:50 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162245
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM PDT MON MAY 16 2005

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGE CLOUD BAND IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA
AND EL SALVADOR. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

The evenings tropical weather outlook for the Eastern Pacific.

#31 Postby **wx247** » Mon May 16, 2005 6:04 pm

Well would you look at that! We have a baby in the EPAC. Looks like we may see something here soon.

#32 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 16, 2005 6:16 pm

wx247 wrote:Well would you look at that! We have a baby in the EPAC. Looks like we may see something here soon.

And it may pay us a visit in the Atlantic Ocean!

#33 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 16, 2005 9:22 pm

Kevin_Cho wrote:Wait so after it goes into the Caribbean Sea, any ideas where it may go? Also what happened to that invest in the Caribbean? Did it just dissapate?

Kevin Cho

GOOD POINT!

#34 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon May 16, 2005 10:23 pm

Code: Select all

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST     (EP902005) ON 20050517  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          050517  0000   050517  1200   050518  0000   050518  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     9.7N  96.4W   10.3N  95.9W   10.8N  95.9W   11.4N  96.2W
  BAMM     9.7N  96.4W   10.0N  96.3W   10.3N  96.2W   10.7N  96.1W
  LBAR     9.7N  96.4W   10.5N  95.7W   11.7N  95.2W   13.2N  94.9W
  SHIP        20KTS          23KTS          28KTS          34KTS
  DSHP        20KTS          23KTS          28KTS          34KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          050519  0000   050520  0000   050521  0000   050522  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.2N  96.5W   14.0N  96.3W   16.4N  94.3W   20.9N  91.9W
  BAMM    11.2N  95.9W   12.5N  94.1W   15.4N  89.5W   19.8N  86.0W
  LBAR    15.1N  94.8W   18.7N  93.5W   20.5N  89.6W   24.4N  81.7W
  SHIP        42KTS          48KTS          47KTS          41KTS
  DSHP        42KTS          31KTS          30KTS          25KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =   9.7N LONCUR =  96.4W DIRCUR =  45DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
  LATM12 =   9.4N LONM12 =  96.9W DIRM12 =  71DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
  LATM24 =   9.2N LONM24 =  97.5W
  WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
  CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

I should have a models map of this run in an hour or so... (When I get home

)

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #35 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon May 16, 2005 11:23 pm

I rememeber a system that looks just like this one a few years ago. It bombed into a cat5 in made landfall late October of that year.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #36 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon May 16, 2005 11:27 pm

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_p ... /track.gif

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #37 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon May 16, 2005 11:30 pm

To prove my case!!!
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sat_i ... 102200.gif

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #38 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon May 16, 2005 11:55 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I rememeber a system that looks just like this one a few years ago. It bombed into a cat5 in made landfall late October of that year.

The atmospheric conditions between 90E and Hurricane Kenna were completely different.

Actually, a good chunk of systems look similar when they are not even a depression...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #39 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon May 16, 2005 11:58 pm

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #40 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue May 17, 2005 12:32 am

Kevin_Cho wrote:OMG...look where Lbar takes it...FLORIDA!!! lol...close to where I live to, I live on the SW area of FL. Naples, FL...not to far away...lol....jeeze, if this actually happens lol, people can saw Florida got hit before the season even started lol..is Lbar one of the less accurate models? Where do you THINK it will actually go?

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Sophomore: Naples High School

First, the accuracy of the models after initializing on a weak system (not even a depression) is not so good. Also, realize that by the time the system crosses the mountains, this system will hardly be organized. Additionally, once it does cross the mountains, the models would have to reinitialize on whatever remnant low exists. One more thing, the subtropical jet across the Gulf of Mexico continues to pose a shear threat. Bottom line, if this system does become a tropical cyclone (although chances of anything more than a tropical depression or weak tropical storm are low), by the time it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, the threat of the US mainland would be nothing more than a threat of rainshowers to spoil a picnic.

However, remain vigilant as the system evolves...

First invest for EPAC

Who is online