Finnally better weather in Puerto Rico (Edited)

[cycloneye]

Here it comes.

This is what Puerto Rico is getting from what was 91L.Rain and more rain enhanced by the mountains.I will keep the members informed about anything bad that may occur although I dont expect anything tragic

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
815 PM AST MON MAY 16 2005

.UPDATE...I AM GOING TO RE-MENTION WHAT OTHERS HAVE ALREADY
SAID...SINCE AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME.
ON THE SHORT TIME...THE RAIN ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE
WHOLE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NOW. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A WIDE AREA
OF RAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE ONE OF MORE
CONCERN TO US IS THE RAIN TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR TWO REASONS...
BECAUSE IS HEAVIER AND BECAUSE IS THE ONE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...ADDING SOME
INSTABILITY TO AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALSO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI THIS EVENING MOVING TOWARD THE
NE...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS DEPICTED. THE WAVE AND THE
LOW ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND CREATE A
CONTINUATION OF AN EVEN WETTER PATTERN THAN THE ACTUAL ONE. I
MEAN...THERE IS A HIGH POSSIBILITY THAT LATER TONIGHT...OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS BECOME MORE REALISTIC AS LOW SW OF PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN NOTED
AND THE RAIN IS INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. SINCE THIS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND THE RISK OF
LANDSLIDES OVER STEEP TERRAIN IS HIGH...AND THE CHANCES FOR FLASH
FLOODING ARE ALSO HIGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE URBAN AREAS. THIS
INCLUDES VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.


Not a good outlook tonight.

[Rainband]

Try and stay safe!!

[caribepr]

We be wet. Cycloneye! No danger here on Culebra yet, just muddy, slippery walking, and grumbling touristos. Nothing like the big island with overflowing river banks, mudslides, etc. Take care, mi amigo. I'm not going to Fajardo til this is over. The ferry ride would I don't even want to imagine! (my avocado trees have grown about half a foot in five days though!)

[Rainband]

Stay safe caribepr

[cycloneye]

We be wet. Cycloneye! No danger here on Culebra yet, just muddy, slippery walking, and grumbling touristos. Nothing like the big island with overflowing river banks, mudslides, etc. Take care, mi amigo. I'm not going to Fajardo til this is over. The ferry ride would I don't even want to imagine! (my avocado trees have grown about half a foot in five days though!)

Yeah not a good ride these days of storminness as thunderstorms can cause gusts enbedded of 30-35 kts so it is a rocky ride on that ferry.I am safe and dry where I am in Santurce.Right now at 9:48 PM EDT it is the calm before another round of heavy rains.

[cycloneye]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1035 PM AST MON MAY 16 2005

...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...

CONSIDERABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS HAS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO
TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET JUST TO OUR NORTH...SHORT WAVES
MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL REGION IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE PROXIMITY OF A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...HAS PROVIDED ALL THE
INGREDIENTS TO MAINTAIN A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT
IN SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST BETWEEN EASTERN
HISPANOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE WHERE IT WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY AS
IT MOVES OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY
EXPLOSIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WILL THEREFORE ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTH
AMERICA INTO THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND VERY
GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL THUS AID IN GENERATING
OCCASIONAL CLUSTERS OF INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS...WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO TONIGHT AND LATER AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THIS TYPE OF INTENSE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN AS 4 TO 8 INCHES...
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RECENT RAINS HAVE WETTED THE LOCAL SOILS...AND ARE KEEPING SOME
RIVERS AND STREAM LEVELS AT ELEVATED LEVELS. RIVER AND STREAMS WILL
THUS QUICKLY REACT TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL THEREFORE REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IS ALSO HIGH IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN DUE TO THE HIGHLY SATURATED SOILS.

LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THIS
DEVELOPING AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING WEATHER EVENT.


A damp morning here with moderate showers in San Juan.Let's see if all this mess moves out in the next couple of days to see the sun finnally.I will have rainfall totals later today but I can tell you that preliminary data shows amounts between 3-6 inches since 6:00 PM EDT.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

[cycloneye]

E GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN...AND W ATLANTIC...
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND
CAICOS SW TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED OVER HAITI NEAR 18N74W THEN
TRAILING S TO A SECOND 1007 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
13N79W TO 12N83W. THE N LOW IS NOW DRIFTING E OVER HISPANIOLA
WHILE THE S LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST. ALTHOUGH NEITHER
LOW HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THE N LOW IS NOW GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS ALL OF HAITI AND THE
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING AREA. A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W
ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N59W W TO
31N74W. THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED
NEAR 13N67W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA S OF 27N
FROM 43W-95W BECOMING NARROWER N OF 26N FROM 63W-90W. THIS IS
ADVECTING DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF
UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE DYNAMICS ARE
INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE SUPPLY
TO PRODUCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN
ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. IN ADDITION...STRONG
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER COLOMBIA AND E PANAMA MOVING INTO
THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 71W-78W.

The wet pattern will be with us for a couple of days as weak lows meaender around.

[cycloneye]

TJSJ 171110
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST TUE MAY 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD SURFACE LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
MONA PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THEN
INTENSIFY AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INFLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE HAS CONTINUED TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LATE ON MONDAY AND OVERNIGHT...THIS
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF MID LEVEL VORTICES...ONE OF THEM
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME AND PROBABLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED...AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS HAS
ALREADY RESULTED IN SOME FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTH...INTERIOR AND EAST PUERTO RICO. WE HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL OF THE FA THROUGH 1130 AM THIS MORNING AND STILL HAVE
NUMEROUS WARNINGS IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN FALLING INTERMITTENTLY AND THEN FOLLOWED BY 6 TO 12
HOUR PERIODS OF MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT TIMES.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT GROUND AND RIVER CONDITIONS AND ALL OF THE
FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS COMBINING...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF A HIGH FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDE POTENTIAL...WITH
EACH BURST OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY RESULTING IN
MORE PROBLEMS THAN THE ONE BEFORE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

[msbee]

OMG, when is this all going to stop?
first we have drought conditions for months.
now we can't see the sun for days!
This is not a god time to have a solar hot water heater as I do
Here, so far, we actually have not had much more rain and I know PR is getting the worst of it.
I hope there is not much flooding there.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 171925
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
335PM AST TUE MAY 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...AFTER A QUIET MORNING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THEN THEY
SPREAD OUT TO THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
USVI ALSO WERE AFFECTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL THESE SHOWERS HAVE CONTRIBUTE ON THE
SATURATIONS OF SOILS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.

TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH LATE EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERIES ARE SHOWING A GAP MOVING
OVER OUR LOCAL AREA THEREFORE WE SHOULD GET A RAIN BREAK THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY IN THE MORNING WE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
EXPERIENCE SHOWERS AFFECTING FIRST THE SOUTH HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND
AS THE DAY PROGRESS THEY WILL START TO AFFECT THE INTERIOR AN D
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PR.

EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN FALLING INTERMITTENTLY AND THEN FOLLOWED BY 6 TO 12
HOUR PERIODS OF MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AT TIMES.
GIVEN ANTECEDENT GROUND AND RIVER CONDITIONS AND ALL OF THE
FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS COMBINING...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF A HIGH FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES POTENTIAL...WITH
EACH BURST OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY RESULTING IN
MORE PROBLEMS THAN THE ONE BEFORE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MONA
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT...AND THEN
INTENSIFY AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.



It's not over yet.I will have rainfall totals later today or tonight as they are impressive.

[abajan]

Good grief!

Have you guys seen the latest IR satellite pix of the Puerto Rico area? Considering the rains they have already had, flash flooding is very likely in at least some areas.

Stay safe and keep us posted on the situation, cycloneye.

[cycloneye]

Here it comes.

This is what Puerto Rico is getting from what was 91L.Rain and more rain enhanced by the mountains.I will keep the members informed about anything bad that may occur although I dont expect anything tragic

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST WED MAY 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES THIS MORNING AT THE SURFACE FROM THE
EPAC NNE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB AND THE GREATER ANTILLES AND INTO
THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC...WITH WINDS THEN VEERING
QUICKLY ABOVE THIS TO LIGHT WESTERLIES AT MID LEVELS THEN WNW ABOVE
AT UPPER LEVELS...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIB. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND A WEAK PERTURBATION AT MID
LEVEL DRIFTING EAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING HAS IGNITED A
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS PERSISTING DUE TO GOOD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT...WITH SCATTERED TOPS ABOVE 40K FT...AND A FEW TOPS TO -80C.
GFS IS FORECASTING THIS MCS TO DRIFT ENE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED S TO SE INFLOW OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SW AND W P.R. THIS
MORNING AND SHIFT NE DURING THE DAY...AND COULD YIELD RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 4-5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
GFS HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW N OF
HISPANIOLA AND MOVING IT E TO ENE ACROSS THE OUTER ATLC WATERS...AND
FOCUSING A LLVL JET AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS P.R. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW HAS YET TO DEVELOP...WHILE MID LEVEL
IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE REGION. I AM THUS HESITANT
TO JUMP ALL OVER ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEVELOPMENT...AND HAVE
BACKED OFF THE STRONG SURFACE WINDS. GFS HAS OTHERWISE DONE QUITE
WELL WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BUT HAS OVERDONE
CYCLOGENISIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT ATLC. SOME TYPE OF
TROFFING OR WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO SHIFT ENE ACROSS OUR OFF
SHORE ATLC WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT WILL WAIT FOR MORE
DEFINITIVE SIGNALS. IN THE LONGER RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON LEAVING A LLVL MONSOONAL TYPE TROUGH WEST TO
EAST ALONG 20-21 FOR THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN AN
ANOMALOUS S TO SW LLVL WIND FLOW LOCALLY...AND GOOD LLVL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE REGION. T.S. ADRIAN IN THE EPAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
PLAYER IN THIS EVOLUTION...CROSSING NE INTO THE CARIB AND THEN INTO
THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND WILL INFLUENCE THE REGIONAL
STEERING FLOW. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIB REGION IS MORE
REMINISCENT OF OCTOBER THAN MAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCAL SOILS REMAIN AT OR NEAR SATURATION...AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH...
AND WILL THUS MAINTAIN HIGH FLASH FLOOD AND LANDSLIDE POTENTIAL
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAINFALL CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THAT IS CONTINGENT ON A LOW NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA MOVING EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH CLEARING
BEHIND. IF THERE IS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD LLVL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO OUR WEST...THEN RAIN CHANCES MAY REMAIN HIGH FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED HIGHEST ACROSS THE
WEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS N
CENTRAL AND NE SECTIONS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.




My only expression is

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap Luis!

[tailgater]

Well Louis and Msbee I hope you have your Ark built, just when the NWS forecaster is ready to give up on the GFS proposed development I think it's finally gonna happen(just SW of you) and move in the direction to dump alot more rain and some wind where you definitely don't need it. Can you get any kind rain totals for us. We look forward to more of your updates. Best of luck.

[cycloneye]

:eek: Holy Crap Luis!

Yes this is getting serious now.Later today I will post rainfall totals since the event began from may 5.

[caribepr]

One scary looking radar this morning indeed. The water had just finished sinking below the ground yesterday afternoon...having just cleared some land before this all started, for building a gazebo I had made dirt dikes and they did exactly as I hoped, diverting the main water flow down to the bay through the mangroves at the edge of my property. Hopefully they will last this next deluge. I just wanted a little rain to tamp down the raw ground...oops!

[cycloneye]

Here it comes.

This is what Puerto Rico is getting from what was 91L.Rain and more rain enhanced by the mountains.I will keep the members informed about anything bad that may occur although I dont expect anything tragic