Is Adrian trying to see? (Edited)

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:32 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Above link is a Visble Image Loop.

It looks better organized this morning with a few curved bands.IMO some Tropical Storm Watches would be good to be issued soon to make the people at portions of CentralAmerica aware that something is off the coast that may cause flooding rains but not very strong winds.Looks like TD#1-E will be classified very soon.

Disclaimer=This is Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) opinion only about having watches issued and not an official word.Any official information you can go to the National Hurricane Center.

#2 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:48 am

It does appear as though it's on it's way. Just ordered a battery powered coffee maker and fan -- :eek:

KatDaddy · #3 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue May 17, 2005 8:50 am

Its looking much better than yesterday. I would not be surprised to see this become the first EPAC TD of the season.

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:01 am

I agree but it may be short lived depending on the terrain where it makes "landfall".

Javlin · #5 Postby **Javlin** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:08 am

The EPAC ststem is making the supposed track of the models at 4kts.The big question is how intense the system will be and where it crosses.Shear seems to be low except to the N it begins to p/u.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/EPA ... atest.html

KatDaddy · #6 Postby **KatDaddy** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:17 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 051706.gif

#7 Postby **dhweather** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:24 am

Thanks for the images Luis - indeed that area is getting better organized.

#8 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:51 am

Most definitely it is getting better organized this morning. As stated, a full day of tropical sun can do nothing but enhance the chances of TD #1-E forming today. However, once ashore I wouldn't place any bets on the "crossover" being anything but a broad low once it makes the Carribean, if it does.

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:53 am

Time will tell. I guess it depends on if it becomes organized and how much. :wink:

#10 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 9:53 am

vbhoutex wrote:Most definitely it is getting better organized this morning. As stated, a full day of tropical sun can do nothing but enhance the chances of TD #1-E forming today. However, once ashore I wouldn't place any bets on the "crossover" being anything but a broad low once it makes the Carribean, if it does.

Yes David about crossing into the Caribbean IMO this will only be a remmanant low as Central American mountains will destroy it.

James · #11 Postby **James** » Tue May 17, 2005 10:17 am

Interesting to note that if this system does become a tropical depression today, it will be the earliest start to the E. Pacific season since 1996, when Tropical Storm #1 formed on May 13th.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 12:16 pm

James wrote:Interesting to note that if this system does become a tropical depression today, it will be the earliest start to the E. Pacific season since 1996, when Tropical Storm #1 formed on May 13th.

Interesting stat there.

Weatherboy1 · #13 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Tue May 17, 2005 12:26 pm

to give us something to watch! I doubt it will get very strong and it'll probably just fizzle out over Central America. But hey, I'll take it -- especially in May.

Usually there's nothing interesting until August.

#14 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue May 17, 2005 12:33 pm

Wow, very nice right now! I would bet TD at 5.

#15 Postby **tailgater** » Tue May 17, 2005 2:36 pm

It reminds me of a far Galaxy. But I'm alreadyspending too much time in front of this Comp. screen. :lol:

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 17, 2005 5:41 pm

Looking at the loop and floater pics TD 1-E is on the virge to become Tropical Storm Adrian if it is not already a storm.The bands are better defined as well the center.And the outflow is excellent with little upper shear.

Disclaimer=This is only a brief discussion from Luis Martinez (Cycloneye) not an official statement.For official information go to the National Hurricane Center site.

#17 Postby **TampaFl** » Tue May 17, 2005 5:54 pm

Dixiebreeze, where did you find the battery operated coffee maker and fan. A definate "must have" for my emergency supply kit.

Robert 8-)

#18 Postby **JPmia** » Tue May 17, 2005 6:11 pm

Ditto that TampaFL...Dixie tell us on the Hurricane Preparedness forum! I've got to have that!! Just think Starbucks coffee and 140mph winds...hmm.

#19 Postby **TampaFl** » Tue May 17, 2005 6:43 pm

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 18, 2005 6:42 am

Bumping for all to look at those floater pics.Impressive it looks this morning.Outflow is very good and deep convection is over the center.It is on the intensification phase as I type this.It will be a close call aboty being a hurricane before landfall but regardless torrential rains will arrive at CentralAmerica causing massive flooding and mydslides.I pray for those people who live at Guatemala and El Salvador.

Is Adrian trying to see? (Edited)

Is Adrian trying to see? (Edited)

Nothing like an early storm ...

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