TD1-E is born

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (EP012005) ON 20050517 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050517 1800 050518 0600 050518 1800 050519 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 95.2W 10.3N 94.6W 11.2N 94.1W 12.3N 93.6W
BAMM 9.8N 95.2W 10.3N 94.4W 10.9N 93.5W 11.8N 92.5W
LBAR 9.8N 95.2W 10.5N 94.4W 11.7N 94.0W 13.1N 93.9W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050519 1800 050520 1800 050521 1800 050522 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.8N 92.8W 17.6N 89.8W 22.8N 84.9W 26.2N 77.7W
BAMM 13.2N 91.3W 16.7N 87.6W 20.8N 83.0W 23.5N 78.7W
LBAR 14.5N 93.8W 17.1N 92.7W 19.1N 88.5W 22.5N 81.0W
SHIP 55KTS 57KTS 52KTS 39KTS
DSHP 55KTS 35KTS 33KTS 23KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 95.2W DIRCUR = 75DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 95.8W DIRM12 = 82DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 96.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


The model guidance has it as Tropical Depression.First advisory at 5 PM EDT.

[GulfBreezer]

All I can really say is WOW!! Here we go folks...............hang on tight, it may be a rough ride!!

[krysof]

Now this is excitement, do you know its speed, wind speed, movement?

[Aquawind]

Ahhhh... I feel better now.. Healthy presentation on visable at the moment..

Paul

[krysof]

It would have better if it was in the atlantic, more excitement but this is perfectly fine with me, I didn't expect this yet.

[cycloneye]

Now this is excitement, do you know its speed, wind speed, movement?

Wind Speed=35 mph
Movement ENE at 3 mph

[feederband]

Now will it cross over and as what ....

[krysof]

maybe a tropical storm and as it crosses over, it will become a remnat into the atlantic

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL Catches up to the models and has now NONAME.

[dhweather]

Hey, we can call it Ivan! lol

[GalvestonDuck]

So, can anyone who has an eye for these things tell us what factors are hovering around on the Atlantic side that will effect its path? IOW, might it turn GOM-ward bound (dang it! now I'm gonna be singing that Simon & Garfunkle song...and I only have myself to blame) and bring us rain or will it continue eastward or do we have any clue?

[x-y-no]

Both SHIP and DSHP are now taking it to 55 knots at landfall - that's a big increase over the previous run.

Jan

[cycloneye]

So, can anyone who has an eye for these things tell us what factors are hovering around on the Atlantic side that will effect its path? IOW, might it turn GOM-ward bound (dang it! now I'm gonna be singing that Simon & Garfunkle song...and I only have myself to blame) and bring us rain or will it continue eastward or do we have any clue?

CentralAmerican Mountains will tear apart the system once it gets there.

[HURAKAN]

LET'S GET THE PARTY STARTED!

[dhweather]

Right now, there's a stationary front over the extreme northern GOM.

But that's going to dissapate in the next 24 hours, and the southerly flow will resume.

There's inadequate ridging to push this into the GOM. If it crosses over,
it'll go carribean, then fish

[GalvestonDuck]

So, can anyone who has an eye for these things tell us what factors are hovering around on the Atlantic side that will effect its path? IOW, might it turn GOM-ward bound (dang it! now I'm gonna be singing that Simon & Garfunkle song...and I only have myself to blame) and bring us rain or will it continue eastward or do we have any clue?

CentralAmerican Mountains will tear apart the system once it gets there.

Makes sense. I don't know why I wasn't paying attention to topography first. Thanks, Luis!

[feederband]

So, can anyone who has an eye for these things tell us what factors are hovering around on the Atlantic side that will effect its path? IOW, might it turn GOM-ward bound (dang it! now I'm gonna be singing that Simon & Garfunkle song...and I only have myself to blame) and bring us rain or will it continue eastward or do we have any clue?

CentralAmerican Mountains will tear apart the system once it gets there.

Is that whole area Mountains or are there any large area that it could go though that would leave it more intact?

[dhweather]

So, can anyone who has an eye for these things tell us what factors are hovering around on the Atlantic side that will effect its path? IOW, might it turn GOM-ward bound (dang it! now I'm gonna be singing that Simon & Garfunkle song...and I only have myself to blame) and bring us rain or will it continue eastward or do we have any clue?

CentralAmerican Mountains will tear apart the system once it gets there.

Luis is right - like any other tropical system, mountains will tear
the core up pretty bad.

[Rainband]

Time will tell. It depends on where it crosses and the speed.

[x-y-no]

Right now, there's a stationary front over the extreme northern GOM.

But that's going to dissapate in the next 24 hours, and the southerly flow will resume.

There's inadequate ridging to push this into the GOM. If it crosses over,
it'll go carribean, then fish

Yes, any remnant which makes it into the Caribbean will continue to the NE. The GFS takes it into the western Carib. into an area of significant shear, and sends the weakening remnant across central Cuba.

I'm kind of inclined to expect a somewhat more easterly path, but I want to think about it for a while before committing myself.

Jan