TD #01E - First Public Advisory...and Discussion

[James]

Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on May 17, 2005



...Early season depression develops southwest of Guatemala and El
Salvador...could cause torrential rains over Central America...
Interests along the Pacific coast from southeastern Mexico to El
Salvador should closely monitor the progress of this system over
the next few days.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression One-E was
located near latitude 9.9 north...longitude 95.0 west or about
470 miles... 760 km...west-southwest of Guatemala and El Salvador.

The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph
... 7 km/hr...and this unusual motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. On this track...outer rainbands may begin to
affect the coastal areas of Guatemala and El Salvador on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and this system could become a tropical storm by Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

The depression is expected to move slowly northeastward...which is
not typical...over the next few days. On the forecast track...this
system has the potential to produce torrential rainfall over
portions of Central America during the next few days.

Repeating the 2 PM PDT position... 9.9 N... 95.0 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center
at 8 PM PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Stewart


$$

[yoda]

I was just about to post it...

A nice start to the Tropical Season! And we're off!

[HURAKAN]

WE MAY EVEN HAVE OUR OWN TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT HAND! IT LOOKS IT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EVEN IF ITS STRUCTURE IS DISTORTED.
SWEET!

[chadtm80]

Will the Weather Channel have updates on this storm now?

Kevin Cho

Storm2k Will

[cycloneye]

Will the Weather Channel have updates on this storm now?

Kevin Cho

Yes at :50 past every hour.

[Anonymous]

Forecast to hit at 70 mph...and these systems tend to go faster.

[dhweather]

And the GFDL says its a 126kt hurricane at landfall.

[Rainband]

Will the Weather Channel have updates on this storm now?

Kevin Cho

Storm2k Will

Thats Why We are "The Legal addiction" You Da man Chad. Going to be a Busy year for you!!

[James]

Adrian might have himself a temper.

[Rainband]

And the GFDL says its a 126kt hurricane at landfall.

They need to adjust that sucker

[dhweather]

Yeah Chad, I hope the server can take another abusive Hurricane season!

[Anonymous]

Will the Weather Channel have updates on this storm now?

Kevin Cho

Yes at :50 past every hour.

Except during storm stories

[Hyperstorm]

Hmmm.....Forecaster Knabb? I guess that's our new forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. I wonder what are his credentials...

[yoda]

And the GFDL says its a 126kt hurricane at landfall.

They need to adjust that sucker

Hmm... a Cat 4? No thanks... not right now...

[x-y-no]

Will the Weather Channel have updates on this storm now?

Kevin Cho

No, they're planning round-the-clock re-runs of "Storm Stories" for the duration of the tropical season.

[James]

[yoda]

Hmmm.....Forecaster Knabb? I guess that's our new forecaster at the National Hurricane Center. I wonder what are his credentials...

I just thought that... checking it up... don't see anything about him on their site...

[James]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 172002
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012005
2100Z TUE MAY 17 2005

INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO EL
SALVADOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 95.0W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 95.0W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 95.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 10.2N 94.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 10.7N 93.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 92.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 12.7N 91.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 87.0W...NORTH OF HONDURAS
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 20.0N 82.0W...NEAR CAYMAN ISLANDS
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB/STEWART


$$

[James]

The discussion will certainly be an interesting read.

[yoda]

50 and 60 kts? Wow...