Eastward Vs. Westward Moving Storms and Intensification

[gatorcane]

This snippent from the NHC forecast discussion brings up an interesting point. Eastward moving storms intensify less than westward moving storms in the northern hemisphere. Why is that exactly? If this depression were moving west, would it be stronger than it is?

Nonetheless, check out the last sentence

Snippet from NHC 2pm Forecast Discussion

BUT THIS ISDUE TO THE UNUSUAL EASTWARD MOTION WHICH GENERALLY DOES NOT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION. IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 115 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL... AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Remember Lenny of 1999 that is all that needs to be said.

[gatorcane]

true good point

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Actually I think that was referring to the Unusual part...in that, there is not enough data for the models to generate a significant cyclone.

[feederband]

If the GFDL has it at 115kts in 48 hrs where would it be in 48 hrs.

[soonertwister]

If the GFDL has it at 115kts in 48 hrs where would it be in 48 hrs.

I think the most recent GFDL has it at 103 knots just prior to landfall. That is well short of the 129 knots of the previous run, but GFDL has no good reputation for intensity prediction on developing storms.

We will see what happens soon enough. Will the people of CA be prepared in time? I think that's the most important question right now.

[kevin]

Hard to prepare for floods in that part of the world, I guess. Lets hope things don't get bad...