Tropical Storm Adrian is born
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cycloneye
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Tropical Storm Adrian is born
Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 2
Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on May 17, 2005
...Depression strengthens into first tropical storm of the east
Pacific season...could cause torrential rains over Central
America...
Interests along the Pacific coast from southeastern Mexico to El
Salvador should closely monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
Satellite images indicate that Tropical Depression One-E has
strengthened into a tropical storm.
At 8 PM PDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.3 north...longitude 94.7 west or about
440 miles... 710 km...southwest of Guatemala and El Salvador.
Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph... 7 km/hr...and a
gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24
hours. On this track...outer rainbands may begin to affect the
coastal areas of Guatemala and El Salvador on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
... 75 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
This system has the potential to produce torrential rainfall over
portions of Central America during the next few days.
Repeating the 8 PM PDT position...10.3 N... 94.7 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
2 am PDT.
Forecaster Pasch
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 17, 2005 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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feederband
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cycloneye
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cyclonaut
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cycloneye
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Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 2
Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on May 17, 2005
satellite images show increased curvature in the convective bands
and Dvorak intensity estimates are now 35 kt...35 kt...and 30 kt
from TAFB... AFWA...and SAB respectively. Thus the cyclone is
being upgraded to a tropical storm. There is well-defined
upper-tropospheric outflow over the system and vertical shear
should not become prohibitively strong over the next 36 hours or
so. Strengthening is forecast a la the previous advisory package.
This is a little above the SHIPS model forecast...but less than
indicated by the GFDL. Should the tropical cyclone survive its
trek over the rugged terrain of Central America...it will encounter
an increasingly hostile upper-level wind regime. SHIPS...using the
GFS model forecast winds...shows 30-40 kt of vertical shear by days
4-5. Therefore the official forecast does not call for
re-strengthening.
Initial motion is 055/04. The main steering mechanism is a
mid-tropospheric trough that is predicted by the large-scale models
to be north and northeast of Adrian during the forecast period.
Southwesterly flow associated with this trough is likely to carry
the cyclone northeastward with a gradual acceleration. The
official forecast is very similar to its predecessor and close to
the latest GFDL track.
A big concern with Adrian is its potential to produce extremely
heavy precipitation over parts of Central America over the next few
days. Moisture ahead of the storm is already producing some
locally heavy rain over portions of that region.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0300z 10.3n 94.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 18/1200z 10.7n 93.9w 40 kt
24hr VT 19/0000z 11.4n 92.7w 45 kt
36hr VT 19/1200z 12.3n 91.4w 50 kt
48hr VT 20/0000z 13.5n 89.5w 60 kt...near coast
72hr VT 21/0000z 17.0n 85.5w 30 kt
96hr VT 22/0000z 20.5n 80.5w 30 kt
120hr VT 23/0000z 25.0n 74.0w 30 kt
They mantain a 30kt depression in the Caribbean.
Statement as of 8:00 PM PDT on May 17, 2005
satellite images show increased curvature in the convective bands
and Dvorak intensity estimates are now 35 kt...35 kt...and 30 kt
from TAFB... AFWA...and SAB respectively. Thus the cyclone is
being upgraded to a tropical storm. There is well-defined
upper-tropospheric outflow over the system and vertical shear
should not become prohibitively strong over the next 36 hours or
so. Strengthening is forecast a la the previous advisory package.
This is a little above the SHIPS model forecast...but less than
indicated by the GFDL. Should the tropical cyclone survive its
trek over the rugged terrain of Central America...it will encounter
an increasingly hostile upper-level wind regime. SHIPS...using the
GFS model forecast winds...shows 30-40 kt of vertical shear by days
4-5. Therefore the official forecast does not call for
re-strengthening.
Initial motion is 055/04. The main steering mechanism is a
mid-tropospheric trough that is predicted by the large-scale models
to be north and northeast of Adrian during the forecast period.
Southwesterly flow associated with this trough is likely to carry
the cyclone northeastward with a gradual acceleration. The
official forecast is very similar to its predecessor and close to
the latest GFDL track.
A big concern with Adrian is its potential to produce extremely
heavy precipitation over parts of Central America over the next few
days. Moisture ahead of the storm is already producing some
locally heavy rain over portions of that region.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 18/0300z 10.3n 94.7w 35 kt
12hr VT 18/1200z 10.7n 93.9w 40 kt
24hr VT 19/0000z 11.4n 92.7w 45 kt
36hr VT 19/1200z 12.3n 91.4w 50 kt
48hr VT 20/0000z 13.5n 89.5w 60 kt...near coast
72hr VT 21/0000z 17.0n 85.5w 30 kt
96hr VT 22/0000z 20.5n 80.5w 30 kt
120hr VT 23/0000z 25.0n 74.0w 30 kt
They mantain a 30kt depression in the Caribbean.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue May 17, 2005 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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