Arlene won't happen yet! Crossover Adrian has no chance!

[krysof]

first of all, if Adrian manages to actually survive the trip across central america, it will become crushed by the increasing windshear in the caribbean, so I guess the atlantic has to wait, but it won't be long now.

[gatorcane]

perhaps you are right about that, hence the reason for the NHC keeping it a depression in the Caribbean....it really doesn't have to go all that far to get to the Caribbean...it's actually hitting one of the narrowest points

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it has a fair chance of making it.

[Derek Ortt]

if it survives, it almost certainly will regain TS status

1. It will come out of gradient balance and due to PV conservation, the winds will increase

2. The QG parameters will likely favor intensification

[soonertwister]

I take all tropical storms seriously, regardless of the calendar date. Others would be wise to do the same.

I'm not nearly as worried about what Adrian does after crossing the CA landmass; I'm much more concerned right now about whether or not people are even aware that he's coming. Communications are not the greatest in that part of the continent, and time is going to be very short for those who need to get to safety.

[gatorcane]

true, Derek, about your comment, the NHC does not think that this thing will strengthen when it enters the Caribbean:

This is a little above the SHIPS model forecast...but less than
indicated by the GFDL. Should the tropical cyclone survive its
trek over the rugged terrain of Central America...it will encounter
an increasingly hostile upper-level wind regime. SHIPS...using the
GFS model forecast winds...shows 30-40 kt of vertical shear by days
4-5. Therefore the official forecast does not call for
re-strengthening.

[Ground_Zero_92]

if it survives, it almost certainly will regain TS status

1. It will come out of gradient balance and due to PV conservation, the winds will increase

2. The QG parameters will likely favor intensification

[img]

English Please Derek [/img]

[Brent]

if it survives, it almost certainly will regain TS status

1. It will come out of gradient balance and due to PV conservation, the winds will increase

2. The QG parameters will likely favor intensification

[img]

English Please Derek [/img]

Basically he said if it survives the mountains of Central America, it'll survive and restrengthen.

[Derek Ortt]

from reading the NHC forecast, it appears as if they are assuming a barotropic-type system, which this will not be.

PV is potential vorticity and gradient balance is just the 3 way balance of the inertial force, coriolis, and the pressure gradient

[Javlin]

As long as the system stays below 20'N shear is light.The SST's are warm also in that region.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[KatDaddy]

Derek I hope you will be at the TPC in the future. Actually I can see you being the Director of the TPC many years down the road. You have the drive that will take you far. Your input is very much appreciated.

[Derek Ortt]

I really dont have the desire to work there, at least not yet. My heart lies in the research sector, though I will still try and make nwhhc a profitable company.

Wont entirely rule out working at NHC in the distant future. Never know what the future holds

[mobilebay]

Better get ready to see ORTT at the bottom of the NHC discussions. You do good work Derek.

[george_r_1961]

I agree that Adrian has a decent chance if it survives the trip across central America. It could threaten Cuba and the Bahamas as a moderate TS with portions of S Florida possibly feeling some fringe effects.

[Brett Adair]

Surprisingly I agree with Mr. Ortt on this issue. The mountains will likely tear this thing a good hole, but the Caribbean SST's are phenominal and the QG parameters are definately going to favor intensification in a low sheared environment. If it makes it through CA without stalling (and there is nothing to block it from coming into the ATL Basin)....we will have Arlene.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The stronger it gets before going over those mountains. In faster it go's will tell if it makes it. If this thing becomes a hurricane in moves 20 mph over those mountains it will make it.

[Brett Adair]

The stronger it gets before going over those mountains. In faster it go's will tell if it makes it. If this thing becomes a hurricane in moves 20 mph over those mountains it will make it.

The terrain acts as some sort of barrier against the force of the storm therefore ripping it to shreds. But...I do agree if we can get the forward motion AOA 18+KTs, the storm will roll on into the ATL.

[ColdFront77]

I agree that Adrian has a decent chance if it survives the trip across central America. It could threaten Cuba and the Bahamas as a moderate TS with portions of S Florida possibly feeling some fringe effects.

Local meteorologists here in the Orlando area are saying depending on the track of Adrian, central Florida may get in on some of the weather from the system. That would even mean indirectly associated.

[Tertius]

I agree that Adrian has a decent chance if it survives the trip across central America. It could threaten Cuba and the Bahamas as a moderate TS with portions of S Florida possibly feeling some fringe effects.

Local meteorologists here in the Orlando area are saying depending on the track of Adrian, central Florida may get in on some of the weather from the system. That would even mean indirectly associated.

CENTRAL Florida? That is quite a bit at odds with what South Florida forecasters seem to be saying, which is that whatever remains of it will certainly head ENE below the Florida peninsula altogether.

Of course, if I'd listened to them last year I would have been standing in line at Home Depot 24 hours before landfall feeling desperate instead of being prepared as I was.

[vacanechaser]

first of all, if Adrian manages to actually survive the trip across central america, it will become crushed by the increasing windshear in the caribbean, so I guess the atlantic has to wait, but it won't be long now.

It really is not shear when the system is traveling with the flow. Now if it were already in the Caribbean and moving west against the "shear" I would say yes, no chance. But it could also have much stronger upper level winds and the surface system could be moving slower.. Then it would create its own shear. Saw that a few years ago with the waves coming off Africa and the upper level sysem was out running the lower level center.. We will see what happens..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team