Adrian is rapidly intensifying...

[Anonymous]

As you can see, Adrian is rapidly intensifying. The CDO is expanding, and deep cold cloudtops are forming over the center. Not to mention, the shear is low, divergence is high, and waters are hot. I am worried that this storm may be a potent hurricane by tomorrow night.

[kevin]

We'll see in the morning I guess. I don't see any evidence of rapid intensification.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What doe's it need to do for you to see that it is becoming better oreganized fast? A eye?

[Anonymous]

Don't be surprised to see a Category 3-4 Hurricane Adrian before landfall.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Its really hard to tell right now, but I see where Floydbuster is coming from. Any system can have cold cloud tops, it just depends on how its organized.

I, personally, am still not ready to call that a CDO. By tomorrow afternoon, though, it very well could be, as well as at max, a 65 MPH storm.

[kevin]

Matt, I don't see any evidence of rapid intensification. What I would need to see is pressure drops of 1 mb / hour to be impressed and a couple per hour to consider it rapid intensification. I would need to see a center with complete reds and a center with dark grey. I would need to see better banding. I'm not good at spotting outflow boundaries but the convection looks ragged. It looks like a low end tropical storm to me.

You're entitled to your own opinion. I tend to be conservative when it comes to these things because there are at least 10 people on this board who want to call it a hurricane already, and 2 people who think it is going to hit their city in the states.

[depotoo]

kevin - did you listen to talkin tropics tonight? some good analysis there and seems this could become something from what i was hearing.

[soonertwister]

It's clear from the IR loop that this thing is winding up in an unexpected manner. The CDO is already there, there is no longer any doubt that closed circulation is not only there, it's vigorous.

I've learned to be cautious about the GFDL, but this time it might be more right than wrong. We are clearly looking at a possible hurricane, and it might be well before landfall.

Frankly, I'm shocked at the pace of organizational development of Adrian. It's supposed to be way too early to see this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I do notice some dry air entraining from the north, but it doesn't look like a pervasive phenomenon at this time.

[kevin]

No I didn't listen to talkin tropics. I could be wrong, all I did was look at a loop. What I said was I didn't see any evidence. Cold clouds have fooled me before.

[MWatkins]

It's clear from the IR loop that this thing is winding up in an unexpected manner. The CDO is already there, there is no longer any doubt that closed circulation is not only there, it's vigorous.

I've learned to be cautious about the GFDL, but this time it might be more right than wrong. We are clearly looking at a possible hurricane, and it might be well before landfall.

Frankly, I'm shocked at the pace of organizational development of Adrian. It's supposed to be way too early to see this.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I do notice some dry air entraining from the north, but it doesn't look like a pervasive phenomenon at this time.

Hey Sooner...been a while but not long enough. Didn't we just go through this?

Hard to tell in IR4 if that's a CDO or a cell rotating around a broader center...but the TRMM pass from tonight showed some pretty good inflow bands to the north and south...so that means something is doing some work at the surface.

Water temps are 30C there...and the heat content of the water there is good...that band in the southern semi-circle is impressive...and the moisture envelope is more than adequate for now.

It really comes down to timing and how much development can occur before upper winds become unfavorable.

I bet we see a good Cat 1 out of this...I havent bitten on the rapid intensification idea yet...it's so hard for systems to get a well organized inner core without having a couple of bouts with a cold cover temporally interrupting the process. But then again I didn't think we'd see a TS until tomorrow morning either so what the heck do I know?

MW

[vbhoutex]

Good concise analysis Kevin. Rapid intensification parameters include pressure falls such as you noted, not just it looks good on the ir sattelite loop. If those proponents of the rapid intensification can meet the parameters for rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone then I will agree. At this time I must agree with Kevin. It could easily be a strong TS or Cat1 hurricane by landfall, but at this time I am not seeing rapid intensification.

[Derek Ortt]

late night visible imagery showed a significant improvement in the core. Plus, there was an increase in inflow, meaning more convection, which we are starting to see

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats what I think Derek. But I guest we will just have to see when the eye could pop out.

[soonertwister]

[Hey Sooner...been a while but not long enough. Didn't we just go through this?

Me and my staff thank you for your unconditional support. (Miriam, what's wrong the fax machine this time!...)

Yours truly

[feederband]

Just imagine if you lived close to that coast line you probably don't know it's out there Or if you do you don't relize what this thing could become. Its not like everyone there has The Weather Channel or be on S2K.

[soonertwister]

A BIG CONCERN WITH ADRIAN IS ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THAT REGION.

It was the precip from Mitch that killed thousands in CA. This storm doesn't have the time to create that kind of calamity, but as they say, already there has been heavy rain.

[James]

Well, some greys have appeared in that central convection now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hurricane Mitch, Killed 11 thousand people. Max winds 155 knots/180 mph with 905 millibar pressure. This storm made Ivan looks like tropial storm.


This looks like it is still oreganizing. Iris of 2001 had 125 knot winds 950 millibars in looked about like this but with a small eye.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sat_i ... 100812.gif

[Brett Adair]

I say high category 1 or low cat 2 at landfall looking at the symmetry of the system now. Stacked cyclone is definately trying to do a little bombogenesis this evening with the rapidly intensifying inflow at the SFC. Adrian is a very potent early season storm already IMO.