Advisory #4=50 mph,Hurricane watch may be issued

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 4


Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on May 18, 2005


...Rare tropical storm continues moving northeastward toward
El Salvador and Guatemala...

a tropical storm watch is in effect for the entire coast of El
Salvador...and the Pacific coast of Guatemala. A Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of El
Salvador and Guatemala later today.

Interests in Central America should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 8 am PDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 11.1 north...longitude 93.5 west or about
295 miles... 475 km...southwest of the Guatemala-El Salvador
border.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. This
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 hours. On this track...outer rainbands containing
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall may begin to affect the
coastal areas of Guatemala and El Salvador later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
... 75 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. This system also has the potential to
produce torrential rainfall over other portions of Central America
during the next few days.

Repeating the 8 am PDT position...11.1 N... 93.5 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am PDT followed by the next complete
advisory at 2 PM PDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 4


Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on May 18, 2005



central deep convection has become a little ragged this morning as
dry air noted in water vapor imagery has been drawn into the west
side of the cyclone. In addition...an 18/0920z trmm overpass
indicated the mid-level circulation was displaced about 45-60 nmi
southeast of the alleged low-level circulation center. There is
also considerable scatter in the various satellite fix positions...
so the initial position is based largely on continuity with the
previous motion and forecast track...and low-level cloud lines seen
in 37ghz trmm microwave data and the first few visible satellite
images. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on
a blend of satellite intensity estimates of 55 kt...45 kt...and 35
kt from TAFB...AFWA...and SAB...respectively.
The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 055/07. It is possible
that a new center could form farther east under the aforementioned
mid-level circulation center. However...convection surrounding that
feature has decreased...so I do not want to make any significant
changes to the overall track motion at this time. The global and
GFDL models remain in strong agreement that a pronounced mid- to
upper-level trough will gradually develop during the next few days
across the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico...where a ridge is usually
located this time of the year. Increasing southwest to westerly
steering flow ahead of the trough should help to drive Adrian
across Central America on day 2 and possibly into the northwest
Caribbean Sea by day 3. Whether or not Adrian makes it across
Central America intact as a tropical cyclone will depend in part on
just how strong the cyclone is when it makes landfall. The official
forecast track is similar to the previous three forecasts and is a
little to the right of the model consensus.

Dry air entrainment has temporarily disrupted the central deep
convective pattern. However...banding features remain quite
pronounced and the upper-level outflow pattern is excellent. At
least slow intensification is in order given the very warm
sea-surface temperatures beneath and ahead of the cyclone and all
of the models are forercasting a very favorable outflow pattern...
especially to the north. The SHIPS intensity model brings Adrian up
to about 55 kt in 24 hours and then levels it off until landfall.
The GFDL is not as robust as it was yesterday...but it still makes
Adrian a 95-kt hurricane in 24-36 hours. The close presence of dry
air to the west requires that the GFDL intensity forcast be
tempered somewhat at this time...but minimal hurricane intensity
prior to landfall is still a very distinct possibility.
Tropical storm force winds winds could be nearing the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador in about 30-36 hours...so a Tropical Storm
Warning may be required for these areas later today.

Adrian also has the potential to produce torrential rains that could
cause flooding and mud slides across parts of Central America over
the next few days.

Forecaster Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/1500z 11.1n 93.5w 45 kt
12hr VT 19/0000z 11.6n 92.6w 50 kt
24hr VT 19/1200z 12.6n 91.3w 55 kt
36hr VT 20/0000z 13.6n 89.8w 60 kt
48hr VT 20/1200z 15.0n 88.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 21/1200z 18.0n 84.0w 30 kt
96hr VT 22/1200z 21.0n 79.5w 30 kt
120hr VT 23/1200z 24.0n 73.0w 30 kt

[cycloneye]

[x-y-no]

I like this part ... "the alleged low-level circulation center."

Sounds like he's not entirely sold on the reported track.

At any rate, the part about the mid-level circulation explains why it appears from the sattelite presentation that the storm is tracking more easterly.

Jan

[wxwonder12]

If this storm ends up as a depression or greater in the approx. 5 days over by the Bahamas are the conditions there favorable for further development or is that not probable??

[cycloneye]

For those in South Florida you are out of the cone.

[dhweather]

This is still surreal to me - a system crossing over from the Pacific to
the Atlantic.

[Brent]

This is still surreal to me - a system crossing over from the Pacific to
the Atlantic.

...and in Mid-May.

I just don't see conditions as terribly favorable on the Atlantic side(assuming it survives Honduras).

[Stormtrack03]

This is still surreal to me - a system crossing over from the Pacific to
the Atlantic.

I woouldn't speculate on any Atlantic storm till it does crossover. There is a good chance it wont reform in the Atlantic and dissipate over hondurus land.

[gatorcane]

yes, out of the cone for now but until it is North of the South Florida lattitudes and out to sea I'm not comfortable

[dhweather]

It will cross over - the question is only "as what" - I suspect a clump
of coulds will be all.

[Brent]

It will cross over - the question is only "as what" - I suspect a clump
of coulds will be all.

That's my guess too. If there wasn't a massive piece of land with huge mountains I would feel differently.

[skysummit]

It will cross over - the question is only "as what" - I suspect a clump
of coulds will be all.

That's my guess too. If there wasn't a massive piece of land with huge mountains I would feel differently.

Same here.

[Brett Adair]

I love the NHC, but I can not believe that they don't have this thing reaching hurricane status just before landfall in there forecast. I would believe that more than it being a depression after the crossover.