Pacific Northwest Weather

[snow_wizzard]

You know what my motives are!

I looked up all of the Junes that Sea-Tac had 2.5 inches or more rain in June and was astounded by what I found!

[andycottle]

T-storms likey tomorrow afternoon!

Good evening all. Looking at the latest models tonight....tomorrow early to late afternoon could get really ACTIVE, as T-Storms look pretty darn good. Though GFS MOS has only about 30% of storms, but would say that our chances are going to be higher than that due to 850MB winds being quite brisk at 35 to 40kts from the south during the day. 700MB and 500MB winds also quite brisk from the SSW at 40 to 45kts. Despite the front coming through, temps still manage to stay around +6C at 850MB. Also....NGM model showing lifted indices of -4C, CAPE of 800 to 900+ J/KG, and with some good daytime heating providing we get numerous sunbreaks....airmass appears really ripe for thunder storm developement. High temp for tomorrow at Seattle is 57. MM5 model showing a rather good PSCZ developing in the usual spot of north King and south Snohomish county area just shorty 1, 2pm in the afternoon.


So with that said, think that the main threat of concern from t-storms will heavy rain and gusty winds. Though with airmass being so unusually ripe, we could even see NWS weather spotter reports of isolated funnel clouds. Might also see some small hail as the snow level will be around 6000ft tomorrow...per Seattle mountain weather forecast. The SPC out of Norman, Oklahoma has us in the general threat storms for the Wednesday into Thursday time frame.

So folks, bottom line is.....KEEP YOUR EYES OPEN, as we may see some severe weather tomorrow afternoon into evening hours.

-- Andy
Seattle NWS Weather Spotter - King 142

[snow_wizzard]

That sounds great Andy! The NWS sure seems excited too. I think all areas have a good chance of seeing storms.

On the very good news front...the UKMET is expecting a strong La Nina to develop later this year. That would sure be awesome!

This is a link to the graphic for their predictions...

http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/s ... index.html

[TT-SEA]

Snow_Wizzard...

So what you are saying is that all other weather revolves around a 10-day period at the end of December??

355 days of weather all lead up to a single 10-day period that is usually not that dramatic anyways.

That is pretty sad.

I will never think that way. I think winter prepares us for our beautiful summers.

[andycottle]

A very wet and rainy morning here with moderate rain at times and .20" since about 11pm last night. Current temp at 8:20a.m is 51 degrees. Rain should continue through this morning and untill the cold front moves through our area.

After the frontal passage, airmass becomes steeply unstable as CAPE values exceed the 900+ J/KG range...per MM5 model. And lifted indices pretty low as well ... -4C to be exact. And 850 to 500MB LAPES rates will be fairly steep with the very showery airmass behind this front. In fact...LAPES rates are near or at 8C/KM...per GOES sounder satellite imagery. Also, it`s a good bet that a PSCZ will fire up this afternoon to help kick off the T-Storms. But, I think with day time heating and numerous sunbreaks....the real player to help further kick off the storms will be a couple of mini short waves....of which the first one should cross our are this afternoon, with next one coming on board sometime later tonight into early tomorrow morning. So over all....KEEP YOUR EYE OUT for any thunder storm development that may occur, which in this case today....I say is very LIKELY.

Tomorrow and Friday also look good for some thunder storms as the showery airmass will still be over us and CAPE values still at reasonabel high levels.

-- Andy

[weather girl]

Wow! The "ridge" looks really whimpy in the run you posted, TT.

On the 6:00 news last night, they showed it building in really, really nicely; starting a bit after midnight on Saturday. It looked like it was going to go well into southern Canada. They had highs easily making 80 in Portland Sunday and Monday. Now they have us barely reaching the upper 60s. What the heck happened?

I read somewhere where a certain meteorolgist thinks that those of us who are starting off cool and wet this late spring will end up with a warm late summer. Those that are warmer than average will see a cool end.

[W13]

I'm back, and ready for some active weather this afternoon!

Currently we have a temperature of 51 F, after a low this morning of 49 F. We have had 0.29" of rain since midnight, with some light rain still falling.

Just a side note, only 23 days left of school!

[weather girl]

One last thing. I don't know about artic blasts or how weather patterns play out as the year goes on, or if summer patterns lead to winter patterns or if spring patterns lead to summer patterns or whatever, but! I do know that a Portland meteorolgist said that he relied on the UKMET all winter long. He said it was the only one that was dead on all winter. While the others fudged, it stayed consistent. Now, that may have changed if we've experienced an all-too-subtle shift in flows.

Personally, I don't see a trend at all towards a colder than average winter. El Nino still says otherwise. But I did think that was interesting.

My ulterior motive: Cool summers. I am not for heat lows.

[AnthonyC]

I knew we were gonna pay for our extended warm/dry weather in February and March...but this is ridiculous for the middle/end of May. Viewing latest GFS models, NO ridge this weekend...just a continued zonal flow...but not as active as this current week. 500 mb heights never exceed 550mb so don't expect any really warm temperatures. I'm very disappointed...I need some sun.

Today and tomorrow look like very active days...this morning we had an intense cell move right over our area that produced extremely heavy rain and a clap of thunder. With steep lap rates, thunderstorms are almost certain this afternoon and evening...same goes for tomorrow and to a lesser extent on Friday.

And this weekend and next week? Basically mostly cloudy as a ridge of high pressure takes shape in the southwest but is not strong enough to impact our region...500 mb heights will slightly rise, but it will not prevent northern branch systems from impacting our region...esp. the northwest interior. Are you happy snow_wizzard?! lol. I still can't understand why you like this weather at the end of May...it's almost SUMMER and it feels like the beginning of March!

Anthony

[Perturbance]

I still can't understand why you like this weather at the end of May...it's almost SUMMER and it feels like the beginning of March!

For me at least, it's because I'll take cooler weather (with or without precipitation) whenever I can get it. It's much easier to warm up than it is to cool down.

Plus, spending the first 14 years of my life in Hawaii, I think I've already had my lifetime fill of sunshine and warm weather But to be honest even back then I would track every tropical depression and storm that flared up in the eastern Pacific. Anything to bring some clouds and change in the weather was welcomed.

[W13]

Wow, so far we have had a very exciting day. While at school today, around 11:45 we had a very intense rain squall that lasted a few minutes and then turned to very heavy hail. Now that was exciting!

Looks like a nice band of showers is making it's way northeast from the Olympia/Tacoma area, e will just have to wait and see what comes of that.

[andycottle]

Hi folks....and good afternoon! Some T-Storms have firered up very recently, but they were to my West and SW. Also saw some very dark and ominus looking clouds out toward Redmond on my way home from Molbaks. For here in my area...just some moderate rumbles of thunder that happens occured during the 3pm through 3:25pm hour. This was also followed with a short light rain shower. That has been my weather so far this afternoon.

So as my dutie....I called the folks at the Seattle NWS to let them know I was getting thunder in my area, and even told them the direction the storm was moving in, along with my current weather conditions as I was giving my report.

Andy
Seattle NWS Weather Spotter - King 142

[andrewr]

Getting some pretty gusty winds right now along with some moderate rain. Lets hope it keeps up!

EDIT: Covington Elementary reported a gust of 40mph.

EDIT 2: I'm now getting some thunder and the lights have flickered, but haven't seen any lightning.

[W13]

Rain is really starting to come down, and the winds have picked up substantially in the last 15 minutes. Also, a minute or two of constant claps of thunder can be heard in the distance.

The radar is lighting up! Here comes a good 'ole storm!

Edit: Just had a wind gust to 23mph according to WeatherBug. I am lead to believe it was a bit higher than that considering how hard the wind is blowing right now.

[AnthonyC]

Some very exciting weather today! I was driving down I-5 from Everett, and as I looked in the easterly direction, the sky was pitch black!! I guess Duvall had a strong thunderstorm pass through their area. Currently, in my area, it's raining moderately with an ominious looking sky. I heard one clap of thunder...the wind is breezy too. Tomorrow looks to be another exciting day.

Anthony

[andycottle]

We had a pretty good rain squall about about an hour ago that had sheets of rain, gusty winds to around 25 - 30mph, and some pretty good rumbles of thunder. Right now skies are partly cloudy....BUT...not for long as there is another rain band with possible thunder down in the south sound area. am ready for action! -- Andy

[andycottle]

Hey guys and gals! Check out Seattle NWS radar....anouther round of T-Storms heading my way...and boy they sure intenseified fairly rapidly. Wow! More exciting weather on the way! -- Andy

[AnthonyC]

A squall line is approaching from the southwest...almost up to Seattle at the moment. This has the possibility of producing small hail, very gusty winds and very heavy rain. This should be through Everett within the next 45 minutes. BATTIN' DOWN THE HATCHES!!

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

Fun day as predicted.

Yet I have to mention... today was ABOVE normal.

In the heart of a major trough on a day with significant rainfall.

ABOVE normal.

Just like I thought last week when somebody told it was going to be way below normal.

[W13]

Coming down in buckets now (0.60"/hour and rising), and the winds are really howling. I got some pictures which I will upload later.