Will South Florida Be Spared by Adrian-Arlene?

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 1:09 pm

If Adrian can make into the Caribbean and becomes Arlene, I'm not comfortable that it won't impact S. Florida until it is either 1) dissipated or 2) far out into the atlantic at lattitudes above S. Florida....I'm just not quite convinced it will stay NE all the way across the Caribbean, into the Bahamas, and out into the open Atlantic.... :eek:

#2 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed May 18, 2005 1:12 pm

Way too soon to tell, lots of variables in play over the next few days in the GOM and Caribbean, etc.

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 1:13 pm

yes, I agree, it wouldn't surprise me if the 3+ day path changes fairly significantly as new features in the Atlantic come into play that these models can't anticipate due to the unsual path of this storm...

#4 Postby **feederband** » Wed May 18, 2005 1:18 pm

After last year . I will say . I don't know......

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 1:21 pm

UKMET model shows a drastic turn to the N and NW before hitting Central America. Its an outlier but it wasn't showing this yesterday. :eek:

#6 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:05 pm

Miami and the Keys are certainly in the outer edges of the tracking cone:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/EPA ... atest.html

#7 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:06 pm

IF Florida gets anything from this - and that is a BIG IF, it will be
rain and a little wind.

LaBreeze · #8 Postby **LaBreeze** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:20 pm

What sort of variables in the GOM and Caribbean are you talking about dixiebreeze? Just curious as to what we need to watch for.

depotoo · #9 Postby **depotoo** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:27 pm

i don't like the way the cone keeps changing! lol just keep it south, ok? :eek:

#10 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:33 pm

Where's our obligatory IT'S GOING TO THE CAROLINAS post?

#11 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:36 pm

dhweather wrote:Where's our obligatory IT'S GOING TO THE CAROLINAS post?

Give them time!!! Give them time!!! It has to get closeer first. :lol:

#12 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:37 pm

oh yes - patience. lol

boca · #13 Postby **boca** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:42 pm

FL weather will remain untouched from this system. The weather pattern for FL is for continous boredom with occasional sleepy.

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:47 pm

boca, South Florida is not out of the woods on this one yet. We need to wait until it is clear out to see in my opinion. I don't trust these 5+ day models for such an unusual scenario...I bet their software hasn't been tested well in this case. All it takes is a High to build in the western Atlantic 5+ days out to keep it from moving out to sea....and that is likely this time of year...

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:47 pm

see sea whatever...lol.

#16 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:48 pm

LaBreeze wrote:What sort of variables in the GOM and Caribbean are you talking about dixiebreeze? Just curious as to what we need to watch for.

I don't have a clue at this point in time -- and that's my point.

#17 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:49 pm

Also, if it stays on the northern edge of the foreast cone S. Florida will be a mess by late weekend/ early next week. We would expect possibly strong E winds (20-30 knots) with plenty of tropical showers moving around the system from the Atlantic.

boca · #18 Postby **boca** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:51 pm

will see I'll be back on at 10:00pm

#19 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:54 pm

boca wrote:FL weather will remain untouched from this system. The weather pattern for FL is for continous boredom with occasional sleepy.

Amen, same on the MS gulf coast - warm and dry.
0.00 inches of rain in May at the house, <1" total across the coast.

Meanwhile, Luis is drowning.

krysof · #20 Postby **krysof** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:57 pm

is the 5 pm update out yet

Will South Florida Be Spared by Adrian-Arlene?

Will South Florida Be Spared by Adrian-Arlene?

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