After crossover no FL threat

[boca]

According to the Mia Disscussion the remnants will pass well south of FL due to strong High pressure building in.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT WED MAY 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY HAVE INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE SE CST OF FLA
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE HAS
INCREASED THE GRADIENT FLOW AND THUS NE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER
24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS ALLOWING CU BUILDUPS TO RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO
THE SW AND NOT REALLY CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING INTO SHRA/TSRA.
CURRENT FEELING IS THAT ONLY ACTIVITY THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL BE
ALONG THE SW CST AND LINGER INTO THE EVE HOURS. ALSO WILL CONT TO
HAVE ISOLATED SHRA MOVE IN FROM THE ATL ALONG THE SE CST. MOST OF
THESE HOWEVER WILL LIKELY DIMINISH IN THE C-BREEZE AFFECT AND WILL
NOT BE MENTIONED IN ZONES UNTIL ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GFS
HAS THIS GRADIENT CONT THROUGH THU AND WILL THUS KEEP SAME WX
PATTERN GOING WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY. FOR THE EXTENDED, THE
GFS CONT TO PICK UP ON T.S. ADRIAN MOV ACROSS CENT AMERICA AND RE-
EMERGE IN THE SW CARIB ON SAT. GFS NOW DOWNPLAYS ON FURTHER
REDEVELOPMENT AND KEEPS THE LOW WELL S OF FLA WHICH MEANS WE MAY
NOT GET MUCH WX AT ALL. THIS SCENARIO WOULD TEND TO INCREASE THE
NE FLOW ONCE AGAIN BUT FOR THE TIME BEING WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT VERY LIKELY WILL NEED TO
BE DOWNPLAYED IN FURTHER UPDATES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW SEEMS
SOMEWHAT LIKELY AS THE SW RIDGE AMPLIFIES STRONGLY AND SHOVES THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH FARTHER S THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED WHICH
WOULD INDEED KEEP THE REMNANTS OF ADRIAN WELL S OF US.


Here is the Miami Discussion.

[dhweather]

I just don't believe the ridge will be all that strong. The storm/remnants
should go south of Florida anyway.

[LaBreeze]

A local met mentioned that the high will be breaking down in the next couple of days. Could this occur this soon and to what extent would it have an impact on this system?

[gatorcane]

I'm still not convinced it will stay on NE course all the way across the Caribbean into th Bahamas and out into the Atlantic. How are the models accounting for features in the Western Atlantic at this point that could block and/or steer it off the NE course?

[dhweather]

Yes it can occur - we are still in a late-spring pattern, lots of
weak fronts and troughs are moving across the US. So that keeps
things somewhat safe for the US.

One ridge is cleared out by a trough and replaced by another and so on.

[LaBreeze]

But what about any weaknesses that could occur?

[dhweather]

They'll have west to west-northwest winds behind them.
When the NHC talks about a zonal flow, that's typically what a
winter/spring pattern is.

[vbhoutex]

But what about any weaknesses that could occur?

This system is currently too small and too far South to take advantage of any of those weakenesses. Most storms that take advantage of those weakenesses caused by CONUS weather are above the 23º latitude, I believe. Most, if not all of the current systems are not coming far enough South to affect Adrian.

[ColdFront77]

We aren't too sure they would be considered "remnants" before we actually see what the system looks like over the western Caribbean Sea.

[HalloweenGale]

Hope Adrian swings around that High, and hits Nantucket.

[krysof]

lol

[Brent]

[tracyswfla]

:lol:

It's going to North Carolina, FOR SURE!

[krysof]

hopefully it goes to NYC or long island, lol

[dhweather]

:lol:

It's going to North Carolina, FOR SURE!

AS A CAT 5 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[StormChasr]

It's going to North Carolina, FOR SURE!

Naw, defnite landfall in Boca Raton---right by the raquet and tennis club.

[gatorcane]

I still wouldn't rule out the possibility of it impacting the FL Keys and extreme S. FLorida....the playing field is different once it moves into the Caribbean...and I'm not sure these models will be as accurate as people think in this highly unusual situation. Anytime you have storm that is South and West of the FL peninsula like this one will be, you have to be concerned, especially if it reforms nicely once it hits the Caribbean....

If the upper level ridge to the NW decides to abate more than expected in the next several days then this thing could decide to push more north than east....some ridging off of the Eastern seaboard could develop...

I wouldn't be surprised if this happens as we have seen the ridging really try to establish itself over the last couple of weeks and now it just so happens there is no ridging...but what about 5 days from now???

In addition the High in the Southern Caribbean could change strength or even decide to move north some which will steer it in a more NNE course....it looks like Adrian has a more northerly component tonight.

[Terry]

You guys have it all wrong. I use the TW Predictor --- Tom Wilson, my husband, best tropical event predictor of them all: wherever he is headed for vacation is where the thing will threaten or hit dead on ..... We were to be at our beach house in Anna Maria Island, FL when Charley was planning to come up Tampa Bay. He was headed for a golfing event in Alabama and had to cancel due to Hurricane Frances. We were scheduled to go to the Abacos (Bahamas) the day Jeanne hit there.

Now we are scheduled to go to the Abacos next Wednesday so I figure that Adrian will head East, gain in intensity, do a roundabout like Jeanne did and hit the Abacos.

You can count on it. TW's Predictor has been right-on so far.