Latest Update about ENSO=The aussies back down on el nino

[cycloneye]

The chance of an El Niño event occurring this year is still assessed at between 30 and 50%. In a normal year the risk is around 25%. While sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain above average, and the SOI remains negative, there is the potential for an event to be triggered any time up to the end of June, after which it becomes increasingly less likely. However, whether or not a classical El Niño event occurs, continued warmer than average conditions in the tropical Pacific, mean that the least likely scenario is for widespread above average rainfall across eastern Australia in winter and spring.

Forecast El Niño probabilities from the POAMA model, run at the Bureau of Meteorology, have eased considerably over the past fortnight, and this model now only moderately favours an El Niño event to develop during the southern winter. A majority of international computer models favours a neutral, though still warmer than average, tropical Pacific for the remainder of the year. It must be remembered that during March to June model forecast skill is at its lowest.

The values of key Pacific indicators have continued to wax and wane over the past fortnight, with no clear or unambiguous trend becoming established. Most importantly in terms of a potential El Niño development, the equatorial Pacific remains warmer than average, the 30-day SOI is still negative with little trend (currently
–12), and the Trade Winds in the central Pacific have weakened once again after strengthening briefly a week ago. However, sea-surface temperatures have cooled in the eastern Pacific over the past fortnight, and the Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) that was mentioned in the previous ENSO Wrap-Up, weakened rapidly and had only a minor impact on subsurface temperatures. In fact, during the past two weeks, there has been an overall cooling of the Pacific subsurface. Furthermore, cloud patterns remain typical of a neutral ENSO pattern, rather than a developing El Niño.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

Wow what a change from the Australians about ENSO as they were very bullish about a developing el nino during the summer and fall of 2005.

[Javlin]

I guess Luis they finally read the tea leaves intead of drinking them.

[cycloneye]

I guess Luis they finally read the tea leaves intead of drinking them.

That is right.

[hurricanetrack]

No one needs El Nino anyway. All it does is create problems.

[cycloneye]

No one needs El Nino anyway. All it does is create problems.

Agree.Hurricanes love La Nina.

[dhweather]

Viva La Nina!