Advisory #5=60 mph,Moving ENE

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Adrian Forecast/Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 21:00Z on May 18, 2005



at 2 PM PDT...2100z...the government of El Salvador has upgraded the
tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane
Watch for all of El Salvador.

At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the government of Honduras has issued a
tropical storm watch for the Pacific coast of Honduras...including
the gulfo de fonseca.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the entire Pacific
coast of Guatemala.

Interests in Central America should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

Tropical storm center located near 10.9n 92.5w at 18/2100z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement toward the east-northeast or 70 degrees at 7 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 997 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 50ne 50se 40sw 40nw.
12 ft seas.. 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 10.9n 92.5w at 18/2100z
at 18/1800z center was located near 10.8n 92.9w

forecast valid 19/0600z 11.6n 91.4w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 19/1800z 12.7n 90.3w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 15ne 15se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 50sw 50nw.

Forecast valid 20/0600z 14.2n 88.7w...inland
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 30ne 70se 30sw 30nw.

Forecast valid 20/1800z 15.8n 87.0w...over water
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 21/1800z 18.5n 82.5w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 22/1800z 22.0n 77.0w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 23/1800z 25.0n 70.0w...becoming extratropical
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 10.9n 92.5w

next advisory at 19/0300z

forecaster Knabb/Stewart





TS Warnings and Hurricane watches are issued.The forecast now is for Adrian to be a hurricane before landfall.

[cycloneye]

[krysof]

I thought it might be stronger, but oh well.

[soonertwister]

If their intensity forecast is correct, it won't be the high winds that cause the destruction in that region, it'll be the water.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Adrian Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on May 18, 2005



...Adrian moving closer to the Pacific coast of Central America...
...New watches and warnings issued...
At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the government of El Salvador has upgraded the
tropical storm watch to a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane
Watch for all of El Salvador.

At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the government of Honduras has issued a
tropical storm watch for the Pacific coast of Honduras...including
the gulfo de fonseca.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the entire Pacific
coast of Guatemala.

Interests in Central America should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 2 PM PDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Adrian was
located near latitude 10.9 north... longitude 92.5 west or about
295 miles... 475 km... southwest of San Salvador El Salvador.

Adrian is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr.
A general motion toward the northeast is expected to resume later
tonight with a gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Adrian could become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb...29.44 inches.

Outer rainbands containing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall
are already affecting the coastal areas of Guatemala...and should
begin affecting El Salvador tonight. Rainfall accumulations of 6 to
10 inches...with isolated higher amounts of near 20 inches in the
mountains...can be expected in association with Adrian. This system
also has the potential to produce torrential rainfall over other
portions of Central America during the next few days.

Repeating the 2 PM PDT position...10.9 N... 92.5 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 997 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM PDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 8 PM PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Stewart

[cycloneye]

If their intensity forecast is correct, it won't be the high winds that cause the destruction in that region, it'll be the water.

Yes that will be the main threat for that region.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on May 18, 2005



Deep convective bursts have been occurring around a somewhat
disorganized center during the past few hours...but Adrian retains
prominent banding features. Dvorak data T numbers are 3.0...3.0...
and 3.5...from TAFB...SAB...and AFWA. The initial intensity is set
to 50 knots based on the gradually improving banding pattern.
Adrian has been wobbling toward the east-northeast during the past
few hours. However...the global models and the GFDL agree that a
northeastward motion should resume shortly. Primarily due to the
recent motion...the official forecast is slightly to the right of
the previous advisory. An atypical mid- to upper-level trough over
Mexico will be the primary steering mechanism during the next few
days...gradually accelerating the tropical cyclone toward the
northeast. Adrian is expected to become extratropical by day 5 as
it becomes embedded in the middle latitude westerlies north of the
Greater Antilles.
Conditions remain favorable for some intensification before landfall
on the Pacific coast of Central America...including sea surface
temperatures that exceed 30 degrees celsius. While the upper level
outflow has become somewhat restricted to the west...vertical shear
over the system remains weak. Interaction with the terrain of
Central America should cause weakening before Adrian emerges over
the Caribbean Sea... where increasing vertical shear will not favor
re-intensification.
During the next 24 hours...tropical storm force winds could be
nearing the coast of El Salvador...and Adrian could become a
hurricane before making landfall. Therefore...a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch have been issued for El Salvador.

Adrian also has the potential to produce torrential rains that could
cause flooding and mud slides across parts of Central America over
the next few days.

Forecaster Knabb/Stewart


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/2100z 10.9n 92.5w 50 kt
12hr VT 19/0600z 11.6n 91.4w 60 kt
24hr VT 19/1800z 12.7n 90.3w 65 kt
36hr VT 20/0600z 14.2n 88.7w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 20/1800z 15.8n 87.0w 30 kt...over water
72hr VT 21/1800z 18.5n 82.5w 30 kt
96hr VT 22/1800z 22.0n 77.0w 30 kt
120hr VT 23/1800z 25.0n 70.0w 30 kt...becoming extratropical


$$








They dont see it surviving the hurdle of CentralAmerica only a depression is forecast to emerge into the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

The depression or what may be left will move rapidly to the NE after it gets out of the Caribbean becoming extratropical.

[dhweather]

That forecast track looks about right for what my thoughts are on this
system.

[krysof]

what if it kept moving on a more eastern track like it has been doing, would it save Adrian as it crosses over?

[dhweather]

The lower the amount of interaction with land, the less damage is done to the core of the system.

[cycloneye]

what if it kept moving on a more eastern track like it has been doing, would it save Adrian as it crosses over?

It wont happen as the sterring wont be that way.

[krysof]

if only it were further south and moving east, then it would have a great chance at survival

[cycloneye]

if only it were further south and moving east, then it would have a great chance at survival

You said it If but it is not.

[HURAKAN]

I was expecting an upgrading to at least 70 mph, but nothing happened. Is it possible to send the RECON to investigate the system? It would give us a better prospective.

[cycloneye]

I was expecting an upgrading to at least 70 mph, but nothing happened. Is it possible to send the RECON to investigate the system? It would give us a better prospective.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 651#878651

Sandy Tommorow afternoon

[HURAKAN]

I was expecting an upgrading to at least 70 mph, but nothing happened. Is it possible to send the RECON to investigate the system? It would give us a better prospective.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 651#878651

Sandy Tommorow afternoon

GOOD, REALLY GOOD!!!!