Will South Florida Be Spared by Adrian-Arlene?

StormChasr · #21 Postby **StormChasr** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:57 pm

Relax, Boca Burgers. This isn't the one that is gonna come anywhere near Florida. Maybe some others will, but not this guy/girl (sex change, if it crosses over??). :wink:

#22 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 2:59 pm

It might want to see South Beach.

StormChasr · #23 Postby **StormChasr** » Wed May 18, 2005 3:00 pm

It might want to see South Beach.

ROTFLMAO!!!! :roflmao:

Opal storm · #24 Postby **Opal storm** » Wed May 18, 2005 6:16 pm

If you ask me this is no threat to S FL becuase most likely we will see no Arlene form out of this.Once in the Carib, it will be ripped apart by shear and anything left of it will move south of FL.

Scorpion · #25 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed May 18, 2005 6:25 pm

I doubt it will disintegrate in the Caribbean, but it is no threat to Florida. I think it will turn into a powerful subtropical system as the GFDL shows.

KLP124 · #26 Postby **KLP124** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:46 pm

I can almost guarantee it will hit South Florida... because I'll be in Key West on Monday :eek:

lol

j/k, but that would be my luck....

#27 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:53 pm

I still wouldn't rule out the possibility of it impacting the FL Keys and extreme S. FLorida....the playing field is different once it moves into the Caribbean...and I'm not sure these models will be as accurate as people think in this highly unusual situation. Anytime you have storm that is South and West of the FL peninsula like this one will be, you have to be concerned, especially if it reforms nicely once it hits the Caribbean....

If the upper level ridge to the NW decides to abate more than expected in the next several days then this thing could decide to push more north than east....some ridging off of the Eastern seaboard could develop...

I wouldn't be surprised if this happens as we have seen the ridging really try to establish itself over the last couple of weeks and now it just so happens there is no ridging...but what about 5 days from now??? :eek:

#28 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:00 pm

In addition the High in the Southern Caribbean could change strength or even decide to move north some which will steer it in a more NE course....it looks like Adrian has a more northerly component tonight. :eek:

#29 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:27 pm

This is the first indication that their models are starting to diverge as it approaches the Caribbean...interesting:

To me it's taking the northern side of their cone and slowing down... :eek:

From the NHC 11:00 EST advisory (March 18th)

THERE IS SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL
MOTION...065/07...RATHER UNCERTAIN. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.

#30 Postby **BocaGirl** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:27 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
dhweather wrote:Where's our obligatory IT'S GOING TO THE CAROLINAS post?

Give them time!!! Give them time!!! It has to get closeer first.

Maybe Storm 2K could start a forum just for -removed- posts? Just a thought.............

Will South Florida Be Spared by Adrian-Arlene?

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