Adrian losing it punch

Scorpion · #1 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed May 18, 2005 6:41 pm

Adrian is looking ragged tonight. Cloud tops have warmed significantly and the overrall organization is worse than today. Will it strike as a hurricane? We shall see.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed May 18, 2005 6:43 pm

Scorpion wrote:Adrian is looking ragged tonight. Cloud tops have warmed significantly and the overrall organization is worse than today. Will it strike as a hurricane? We shall see.

Read my take about it at tropical analysis forum.

#3 Postby **skysummit** » Wed May 18, 2005 6:52 pm

Yea...she hardly has any cold cloud tops any more. I wonder if she'll cool off tonight again?

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 18, 2005 7:11 pm

skysummit wrote:Yea...she hardly has any cold cloud tops any more. I wonder if she'll cool off tonight again?

Usually during the night and specially overnight systems get better organized, let see if that happens by tomorrow morning.

krysof · #5 Postby **krysof** » Wed May 18, 2005 7:20 pm

I think it will reorganize itself by tomorrow morning.

swimaster20 · #6 Postby **swimaster20** » Wed May 18, 2005 7:30 pm

krysof wrote:I think it will reorganize itself by tomorrow morning.

I also think it will too because of the extremely warm waters and very little shear.

#7 Postby **skysummit** » Wed May 18, 2005 7:56 pm

A small area of cold cloud tops look to be bursting around the center. If they continue...watch out!!!!!

soonertwister · #8 Postby **soonertwister** » Wed May 18, 2005 7:58 pm

In recent satellite images, it's clear that the cloudtops are cooling again and that convection is increasing near the more-defined center of Adrian than we have seen in the past.

I think this storm will be significantly stronger by daybreak. It continues to bathe in very warm water, and seems to be (finally ) getting it's act together. It's also moving away from the very dry air to the west, and the more symmetrical banding features are starting to insulate the core from those effects.

I'm predicting 75 mph winds by 8 am PDT tomorrow.

#9 Postby **feederband** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:03 pm

Still a forming system. These things will do this.

Scorpion · #10 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:04 pm

Even warmer tops occuring in the center, with the exception of some oranges popping up right in the middle. I predict a minimal hurricane at landfall.

ColdFront77 · #11 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:06 pm

That they do. Some have fallen apart almost completely and regain strength.

cyclonaut · #12 Postby **cyclonaut** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:17 pm

Its undergoing its normal diurnal cycle is all..

#13 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 8:20 pm

cyclonaut wrote:Its undergoing its normal diurnal cycle is all..

Probably so, but the dry air entrainment is probably affecting it a bit
as well.

Nonetheless, tomorrow will be good for watching the progression
of Adrian.

#14 Postby **MGC** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:12 pm

After reviewing this evenings WV loop, it appears the dhweather is correct. Looks like Adrian has some dry air in it......MGC

soonertwister · #15 Postby **soonertwister** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:27 pm

Adrian is doing just fine. Some people just had unrealistic intensification espectations based upon the visuals of the mid-level circulation.

This will be a 65 knot storm by 8 am PDT tomorrow morning.

That's not good for Central America, but it's what I believe to be the truth.

#16 Postby **MGC** » Wed May 18, 2005 9:29 pm

Recon will settle the issue for us....MGC

#17 Postby **dhweather** » Wed May 18, 2005 10:21 pm

Amen to that - we need the recon data!

kevin · #18 Postby **kevin** » Thu May 19, 2005 5:28 am

The NHC seems to think it might not make it to hurricane status. Time will tell.

Adrian losing it punch

Adrian losing it punch

Re: Adrian losing it punch

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