In the first one, it seems everyone EXCEPT the weather and TPC experts were involved in making the plan.
In the next highlight, it seems extreme credibility is being put into the 5- and 3-day forecast. Perhaps credible, but perhaps not - as history has shown. (I wonder how many storms have actually made the precise landfall based on the 5- or 3-day forecast? Maybe a lot?? Enough to evacuate thousands 50 hours ahead of time??)
In the third and fourth highlight, the whole issue of extreme pre-departure still has me bugged. If I were to do a poll, how many would actually evacuate ANYWHERE when a storm is still 50 hours away??? (I wonder how many storms have actually made the precise landfall based on projections when it was still 50 hours out in the ocean or GOM) A lot can - AND DOES - happen in 50 hours with the track of a hurricane. The "egg on the face" issue is what will come back to haunt them when they try to do it (the evacuation) again and no one leaves because the first time they left, the storm landfalled elsewhere, leaving the perception that they left for nothing. (human nature...)
And in the fifth highlight, this Mitchell guy is blaming the poor WX guy for the gridlock. That's about like blaming the dairy because you let your milk sour in the fridge. Bob Breck may be a bit of a pain with his style, but his weather sense is "usually" spot-on.
Anyway, I guess I'm just bugged because it seems the 50-hour evacuation concept is just plain goofy. Not to mention the 72-hour staging period!! Way too many variables come into play in that time period for this plan to have any real merit. Maybe they're just thinking something is better than nothing??
p.s. - Did Ivan "really" make landfall in the Mobile, AL area??
New hurricane evacuation plan outlined
By TED McMANUS
The Daily Review
Lessons learned during the harried evacuation of the Gulf Coast for Hurricane Ivan last September are being used in a (Louisiana) statewide plan outlined Friday at the Troop C headquarters in Gray.
While Ivan eventually made landfall in the Mobile, Ala., area, its unpredictable path sent hundreds of thousands in coastal Louisiana and Mississippi scurrying haphazardly to the west, clogging U.S. 90 through St. Mary Parish.
Maj. Ralph Mitchell of the Louisiana State Police reminded regional emergency preparedness officials and members of the media Friday that a series of decisions made during Ivan’s approach resulted in a situation that state police are determined not to let happen again.
Mitchell, who was Troop C’s commander during the last evacuation, pointed out that the gridlock on hurricane evacuation routes was due primarily to the lack of a statewide plan that local officials and residents could use in making the best evacuation decisions.
“There wasn’t anything to fall back on before,” he said, adding that 1.5 million residents of southeast Louisiana are impacted when a hurricane is headed this way.
The new plan unveiled Friday was developed over the past several months by the State Police, the Louisiana Office of Emergency Preparedness and Office of Homeland Security.
Among its major components is educating the public about the urgency of leaving the coastal area in an orderly and early, fashion.
Weather forecasters have the technology to accurately predict hurricane landfall up to five days in advance, Mitchell said. That accuracy is even better three days from landfall, he pointed out.
Under the new plan, preliminary staging operations would begin 72 hours in advance, which will allow emergency responders ample time to begin issuing evacuation orders 50 hours before hurricane-force winds are felt along the coast. Mitchell said officials probably will err on the side of caution by moving people out earlier. But he said officials should not regret making such a mistake.
“I’d rather have egg on my face than water up to my waist,” Mitchell said, adding that he was not an alarmist but that he and other officials should adopt a “better safe than sorry” philosophy.
“I’d rather do that a 100 times than have a civic center full of body bags,” he said.
Even with earlier evacuation and the use of “contraflow” on major arteries — dedicating all lanes of highway to outbound traffic for several hours — congestion is inevitable, Mitchell admitted.
The sheer volume of traffic created by an evacuation of the metropolitan New Orleans area will clog traffic at some point.
“The issue with contraflow is that we can always dump traffic into the system and get them out quicker but eventually all that traffic has to be funneled back into two lanes,” he said. “Where do you suggest we do that … Lafayette, Houston, Los Angeles?”
Even under the new plan, he pointed out, congestion will occur, he said.
“To expect no traffic jams and no congestion is not realistic,” he said, pointing out that the plan is limited by the number of roads that can be feasibly designated as evacuation routes.
The Hurricane Ivan evacuation resulted in “horror stories” of a five-hour trip to Lafayette, eight hours to Lake Charles and 10-plus hours to Houston.
Officials are optimistic the plan will cut down on evacuation time, but it’s also a plan that can be modified.
“It’s a very flexible plan that we can move around to accomplish the things that we need to do,” said Capt. Val Penouilh, Troop C commander.
A major component of the evacuation plan is delineating what areas are to be evacuated at what times.
It consists of phases, from 50, 40, 30 and six hours in advance of a Category 3 or higher storm whose forecast path is projected to hit the area. The plan also includes a series of tasks and procedures to be implemented within each phase.
In the Morgan City area, residents must evacuate to the north via La. 70 or the west by using U.S. 90.
For the Houma-Thibodaux area, primary evacuation routes are La. 56, La. 57, La. 1, La. 24, La. 20 and U.S. 90, said local law enforcement officials.
But they will use any available transportation options should they prove effective in getting residents out of harm’s way.
Mitchell said earlier evacuation orders in the metro New Orleans area and points south of the bend in the Mississippi River will allow those residents to evacuate in a more orderly manner on Interstate Highways 55, 59 and 10 without creating the kind of gridlock that occurred on U.S. 90 during Ivan.
“Any time an evacuation is ordered for New Orleans, it seriously affects our ability to get out of town,” he admitted.
Using U.S. 90 as an alternate route should not be considered because access by local traffic cannot be effectively controlled, Mitchell said, because U.S. 90 is not a limited access, interstate-quality four-lane.
Mitchell said many New Orleans residents heeded the advice of television weather forecaster Bob Breck, who advised evacuees to use U.S. 90 rather than the designated interstate systems on which access can be controlled at crucial “valve” points.
The detailed plan outlined Friday features virtually all components related to hurricane evacuation.
It calls for the early activation of a traffic command center to review traffic status, monitoring traffic on major routes to help officials decide whether to divert traffic away from those routes, implementing strategic signals to allow for more efficient travel on major routes and providing continuous information to the media on problem areas to relay to motorists.
Law enforcement officials stressed that public participation will be a key to the plan’s success. An awareness campaign to help foster that participation will begin soon.
One element will be the wide distribution of a map to aid motorists in making better decisions about evacuation options.
Exercises involving state agencies and law enforcement in local parishes will be held to test the plan, dates for which have not yet been announced.
