POST TROPICAL WX WARNINGS/WATCHES/ADVISORIES HERE

[P.K.]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 200837
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ADRIAN WAS DECAYING RAPIDLY IN THE
HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE PRECISE TIME AND INTENSITY OF LANDFALL...THE OPERATIONAL
ESTIMATES BEING 65 KT AND 6Z...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...A POST
STORM ANALYSIS MAY WELL CONCLUDE THAT ADRIAN CAME ASHORE AS A
TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 6Z FROM TAFB AND SAB
WERE ONLY 55 KT...WHILE AFWA WAS STILL AT 65 KT.

WITH THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND ARE BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EL SALVADOR ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONSISTENT
WITH MY INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE BUT THESE MAY BE AFFECTED BY
LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER ADRIAN
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL
SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY
WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN. SHOULD
ADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL
AMERICA.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 13.8N 88.9W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/1800Z 14.5N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 21/0600Z 15.8N 85.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 21/1800Z 17.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED


$$

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Adrian Intermediate Advisory Number 12a


Statement as of 5:00 am PDT on May 20, 2005



...Adrian rapidly becoming disorganized over Central America...

at 5 am PDT...1200z...the Tropical Storm Warning for coastal El
Salvador has been discontinued.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 5 am PDT...1200z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Adrian was estimated to be near latitude 14.3 north... longitude
88.0 west...well inland over southwestern Honduras.

Adrian is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and a
general northeastward motion...with some increase in forward
speed...is likely over the next 24 hours. On this track...the
center of Adrian will be moving across the rugged terrain of
Honduras today.

Adrian has weakened considerably over land...and maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts...confined to a small area near the center. However...
stronger winds...especially in gusts...remain possible over
elevated terrain. Continued weakening is expected during the next
24 hours...and the circulation of Adrian may dissipate later
today...before reaching the waters of the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 30 miles
...50 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated higher
amounts of near 20 inches in the mountains...can be expected in
association with Adrian. These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Repeating the 5 am PDT position...14.3 N... 88.0 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
8 am PDT.

Forecaster Knabb/Avila



Weakening rapidly now down to 40 mph.

[Brent]

Tropical Depression Adrian Advisory Number 13

Statement as of 8:00 am PDT on May 20, 2005

...Adrian dissipating over Honduras...still producing heavy rains...

at 8 am PDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Adrian was
dissipating near latitude 15.0 north... longitude 87.5 west...or
inland over western Honduras.

The dissipating depression is moving toward the northeast near 17
mph...28 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Adrian is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of
4 to 6 inches over Honduras during the next 24 hours. Isolated
maximum storm-total amounts of 20 inches are possible in the
mountains in association with Adrian.

Repeating the 8 am PDT position...15.0 N... 87.5 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system unless regeneration occurs.

[TexasStooge]

TROPICAL STORM WARNING until further notice

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WTNT31 KNHC 091435
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

...WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER WESTERN CUBA TODAY AS ARLENE
APPROACHES...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FROM
PINAR DEL RIO TO CITY OF HAVANA AND HAVANA PROVINCES...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.1 WEST
OR ABOUT  190 MILES... 305 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT  165
MILES... 270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK ARLENE THIS AFTERNOON.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS.  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE....MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 84.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

[Fla Panhandle]

I'm confused, the dates on this storm showing here is May 19, 2005. Now we have TS Arlene Ju ne 9, 2005. Can someone explain please? TY

[Fla Panhandle]

I'm sorry, I see the last post as June 9, 2005, I apologize.

[TexasStooge]

HURRICANE WARNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA.

Hurricane Watch
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.

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WTNT31 KNHC 111439
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005

...WINDS AND RAINS INCREASING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS THE
CENTER OF ARLENE APPROACHES...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN
FLORIDA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI...AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST OF
OCHLOCKNEE RIVER TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALSO FROM INDIAN PASS FLORIDA EASTWARD TO
OCHLOCKNEE RIVER FLORIDA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.4 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND ABOUT 85 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA.
 
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.
 
ARLENE REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 70 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ARLENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ARLENE
FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...29.6 N... 87.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

[TexasStooge]

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WTNT31 KNHC 111737
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005
 
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ARLENE A LITTLE WEAKER...CHANCES OF
BECOMING A HURRICANE DIMINISHING...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO DESTIN
FLORIDA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI.

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
AND ALSO FROM EAST OF DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER
FLORIDA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.5 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA.
 
ARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH.  ON THIS
TRACK...THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD CROSS THE
COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ARLENE TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL HAS DECREASED.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT ONE TO TWO FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ARLENE
FROM THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA TODAY.
 
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...30.0 N... 87.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB