Initial Thoughts on TS Adrian Following Crossover

[cyclonaut]

wasnt 81 a slow season? maybe a good sign

I wouldnt call the 81 season slow with 11 NS ,7 Hurricanes 3 of which were major & 1 sub & the end.

[rainstorm]

wasnt 81 a slow season? maybe a good sign

I wouldnt call the 81 season slow with 11 NS ,7 Hurricanes 3 of which were major & 1 sub & the end.

slow in the sense that there were few threats to the us

[donsutherland1]

Rainstorm,

If one examines where the tropical cyclones first began to develop in 1981 consistent with Atlantic hurricane climatology, the fact that 2/12 (17%) storms made U.S. landfall is par for the climatological course.

10/12 (83%) 1981 storms developed east of 75° West. Using 1950-2004 data, 17% of storms that developed there wound up making U.S. landfall. Furthermore, of those 10 storms that developed east of 75° West, 8 (80%) developed east of 70° West. Using 1950-2004 data, just 15% of such storms made U.S. landfall.

[donsutherland1]

Some afternoon thoughts...

The latest model guidance generally continues to look good. The lone exception, in my view, is the UKMET. The UKMET turns Adrian due east then sharply to the northwest and then due south while rapidly dissipating in such fashion that it never crosses land nor moves into the Caribbean. Given the synoptic situation, other models (hurricane and global), and some support from last night's analog, I don't believe the UKMET's solution is highly likely to verify.

Interestingly enough, the 6z GFDL is now very close to the track I gleaned from a blend of the Arlene (1981) analog and model guidance last night.

6z GFDL:

96 hours: 20.3N 80.5W
102 hours: 21.3N 79.1W
108 hours: 22.3N 77.7W

My estimates from last night concerning Adrian's/remnants of Adrian's track following the crossover remain unchanged:

20.0N 82.5W
21.0N 79.3W
22.0N 77.4W

Finally, I believe it is likely that Adrian will become a full-fledged hurricane at some time prior to landfall. Whether or not it restrengthens to tropical storm status once in the Caribbean is more problematic. There is some model support for such an idea but it's a little soon for me to commit to such an idea.

[rainstorm]

Rainstorm,

If one examines where the tropical cyclones first began to develop in 1981 consistent with Atlantic hurricane climatology, the fact that 2/12 (17%) storms made U.S. landfall is par for the climatological course.

10/12 (83%) 1981 storms developed east of 75° West. Using 1950-2004 data, 17% of storms that developed there wound up making U.S. landfall. Furthermore, of those 10 storms that developed east of 75° West, 8 (80%) developed east of 70° West. Using 1950-2004 data, just 15% of such storms made U.S. landfall.

if i am right, only 2 ts's hit the us in 81. if the azores high remains well north, then we may have another 1981 with canes recurving

[cyclonaut]

I am confused, why is this season suppose to be like 81???

Don't tell me because there was a May storm in 81 & there might be a storm this May
now every thing that happen that season will happen this season>

[dhweather]

I am confused, why is this season suppose to be like 81???

Don't tell me because there was a May storm in 81 & there might be a storm this May
now every thing that happen that season will happen this season>

that would be a bit of a reach....

[rainstorm]

actually, jb has an interesting theory about where the first named storm forms, and how it moves

[donsutherland1]

Cyclonaut,

Based on the global indices, I don't see much reason for the 2005 hurricane season to be like 1981. Just because the synoptic environment might be similar at a particular point in time e.g., at about the time Adrian or its remnants moves into the Caribbean, does not mean that 1981 is a good analog year. Analog storms and analog years are not the same thing.

FWIW, some seasons in which the first named storm formed in May saw a lot of U.S. landfalls:

1953: 6 landfalling storms
1959: 6 landfalling storms
1976: 4 landfalling storms

[cyclonaut]

I'm not the one saying this will be like 81..rainstorm seems to be going in that direction.

if i am right, only 2 ts's hit the us in 81. if the azores high remains well north, then we may have another 1981 with canes recurving

[dhweather]

Cyclonaut,

Based on the global indices, I don't see much reason for the 2005 hurricane season to be like 1981. Just because the synoptic environment might be similar at a particular point in time e.g., at about the time Adrian or its remnants moves into the Caribbean, does not mean that 1981 is a good analog year. Analog storms and analog years are not the same thing.

FWIW, some seasons in which the first named storm formed in May saw a lot of U.S. landfalls:

1953: 6 landfalling storms
1959: 6 landfalling storms
1976: 4 landfalling storms

Indeed - remember Ivan, the low latitude storm that will never get past
75 degrees, then 80, whoops, another first.

Each tropical season is like snowflakes (albiet KILLER ones)
no two are identical, they will each have their own nuances.

[donsutherland1]

Based on the latest information, it now appears far more likely that Adrian will not gain hurricane status. Also once it moves into the Caribbean, the synoptic environment appears unfavorable for redevelopment to a named storm.

[donsutherland1]

Very few changes to my initial idea--only that I shift the first coordinate to the left and add a new one for 23° north:

My latest estimates:

20.0N 81.0W (was 82.5W)
21.0N 79.3W
22.0N 77.4W
23.0N 75.5W

Overall, Adrian should make landfall as a tropical storm but weaken after landfall. I don't believe he will regenerate to named status once in the Caribbean given the current environment.

[donsutherland1]

Afternoon update:

Adrian intensified very nicely late this morning and did reach hurricane status in the end. He will likely make landfall either as a strong tropical storm or a hurricane.

My latest estimates for its track once in the Caribbean remain unchanged from earlier this morning:

20.0N 81.0W
21.0N 79.3W
22.0N 77.4W
23.0N 75.5W

At least for now, the general idea for a track taken from a blend of the "analog storm" and computer guidance at the time (Tuesday night) appear to have provided at least a reasonable "ballpark" idea for its course. Consequently, it looks very good that Adrian or its remnants will pass to the south and east of Florida.

For official guidance, one should visit the National Hurricane Center's website.

[donsutherland1]

With Tropical Storm Adrian deteriorating this morning over land, there is a distinct possibility that Adrian could be in such bad shape upon reaching the Caribbean that it dissipates either before then or some time after reaching the Caribbean. From the onset, this was a possibility, as I had noted in the opening post of this thread, "This system, if it survives the trek across Central America..."

If Adrian or its remnants survive, I'm still quite comfortable with the following coordinates for the Caribbean:

20.0N 81.0W
21.0N 79.3W
22.0N 77.4W
23.0N 75.5W

Overall, I still very much doubt that Adrian will regenerate into a tropical storm once it or its remnants reaches the Caribbean. The synoptic environment continues to look unfavorable for much development there.

[dhweather]

I agree Don - most of us agreed early on that if the system survived
the terrain crossing over, there would not be much to it.

The images look very disorganized this morning, and I seriously doubt
that we'll see any regeneration in the carribean.

[x-y-no]

Rocking back and forth through the four visible frames we've got so far in the floadter loop, I can't see any sign of circulation where the center ought to be. I should start emerging over water in a few hours, we'll see if anything is left of it then. Doesn't look too likely at this point.

Jan

[boca]

Adrian wasn't well vertically stacked so its not surprised that it fell apart the way it did. It pulled a Debby from 2000.

[dhweather]

I don't see any sign of circulation, and the SW to NE flow is accelerating.

Services for Adrian will be held today at 3PM PST at the Sister of Camille
graveyard.