Possible new EPAC Invest

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:42 pm

Check out what's brewing out at about 107 degrees longitude...
:eek:

[url]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/VIS/20.jpg
[/url]

Coredesat · #2 Postby **Coredesat** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:53 pm

Looks like a flare-up of convection in the ITCZ to me. I don't see any circulation, and there's no mention of it in any advisories I can find.

EDIT:

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N88W 7N100W 7N120W 5N130W
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF
LINE 10N89W 8N91W 6N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-109W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 6N127W.

Sounds like that's what this is.

ROCK · #3 Postby **ROCK** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:53 pm

boca_chris wrote:Check out what's brewing out at about 107 degrees longitude...

[url]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/VIS/20.jpg
[/url]

Looks decent enough. I bet its going to FL somehow....

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:56 pm

there is actually a slight noticeable rotation...if it stays around tonight and through tomorrow, I would say it will be the second EPAC invest. Shear is not that strong in this area and water temps are warm.

ROCK · #5 Postby **ROCK** » Thu May 19, 2005 7:59 pm

boca_chris wrote:there is actually a slight noticeable rotation...if it stays around tonight and through tomorrow, I would say it will be the second EPAC invest. Shear is not that strong in this area and water temps are warm.

Seriously, Boca I think I can make out some rotation also. Something else to watch while we wait for the big show.

soonertwister · #6 Postby **soonertwister** » Thu May 19, 2005 8:42 pm

I noticed that thing about 4 this afternoon. It didn't look like just your average thunderstorm-type situation, but I blew it off. Now way do TWO Pacific tropical systems form and move east in the same season.

It's never happened in recorded history.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #7 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu May 19, 2005 8:44 pm

IF the Eastern Pacific systems are moving Eastward that means=Strong shear over the Atlatnic. So Less storms for the Atlantic. Kind of like we saw during 1997.

HurricaneBill · #8 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Thu May 19, 2005 9:42 pm

soonertwister wrote:I noticed that thing about 4 this afternoon. It didn't look like just your average thunderstorm-type situation, but I blew it off. Now way do TWO Pacific tropical systems form and move east in the same season.

It's never happened in recorded history.

Well, hurricanes never moved eastward through the Caribbean like Lenny in 1999, yet that was an active season.

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri May 20, 2005 7:41 am

I would expect advisories on this new EPAC invest today...it's looking impressive :eek:

boca · #10 Postby **boca** » Fri May 20, 2005 8:44 am

Which way would this new invest go,would it follow adrian or move west into the open Pacific?

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Fri May 20, 2005 8:45 am

I don't believe any advisories will be started today on this.

It's surrounded by really dry air, and with a trough to its NE and
NW, I don't expect much from it.

#12 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri May 20, 2005 9:01 am

Really, it's looking better by the hour on the satellite... :eek:

#13 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri May 20, 2005 9:03 am

I think we'll have our second depression of the EPAC season by the end of the day today. It has a circulation already and the convection has persisted for more than 24 hours.

#14 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri May 20, 2005 9:04 am

Disclaimer (for my above comment)^^

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#15 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri May 20, 2005 9:43 am

Latest satellite pics of this possible new EPAC invest. It's looking very depression-like to me this morning. Nice persistent thunderstorm activity,
a noticeable rotation, and the environment is favorable:

[url]
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
[/url]

boca · #16 Postby **boca** » Fri May 20, 2005 9:44 am

Which way would this system go once it forms?

#17 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri May 20, 2005 9:48 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products:

There's a trough to the NE and NW so it is nearly stationary right now with maybe a slight W drift. I don't think it will take Adrian's path though as the trough to the NE will be lifting out in the next couple of days. We should see TD #2 advisory shortly that will discuss more.

#18 Postby **dhweather** » Fri May 20, 2005 9:52 am

It's just a nice clump of thunderstorms. Give it a few days and see what happens.

Website · #19 Postby **Brent** » Fri May 20, 2005 9:58 am

and I'm sure it's headed towards South Florida right? :roll:

#20 Postby **Roxy** » Fri May 20, 2005 10:21 am

Brent wrote:and I'm sure it's headed towards South Florida right?

Possible new EPAC Invest

Possible new EPAC Invest

Re: Possible new EPAC Invest

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