How many Cape Verde Systems will form?

[cycloneye]

It will be an active Cape Verde season (Between 5-7) with some low latitud systems threatening the Caribbean but also some fish ones will appear too.I would wish that all go fishing away from the islands.in particular I am very worried here in Puerto Rico especially because of those above normal warm waters in the tropical atlantic that are the fuel to systems that can grow into majors .This poll is non-scientific only to have some talk while we wait for the first storm to form in the atlantic.This poll is only for the Cape Verde area in the eastern atlantic and not for the entire Atlantic Basin.

[Scorpion]

I voted 5-7 as well.

[vbhoutex]

Good short analysis Luis. My fear is that a couple of those low latitude systems will come all the way through the Carribean into the GOM. If that is the case then we could be looking at some very destructive landfalls somewhere on the GOM coastline, not that that didn't happen last year(Charley and Ivan). Like you I would prefer that we have a fishy season because it sure looks like it will be an active one again.

[boca]

I say between 5-7 cape verde systems will form. For fun we should have a seperate poll of many many cape verde storms will continue west and storms turning north in the middle of th e Atlantic.

[dhweather]

I voted 5-7, but I'm still thinking 8-10 may be in line. The SST's are already warm, El Nino is not likely, we may see a really active Cape Verde season.

[vacanechaser]

5-7 voted here too..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

I think the Cape Verde season will be above average this year with 5-7 storms. As of now I believe that the Bermuda High will exist this year but not be as strong or dominant as last year. As a result I'm calling for more fish storms than last year. Nonetheless, 1-2 will make it all the way into the Caribbean and West Atlantic...the main threat this year will be the GOM and Caribbean in my opinion

[skywarn]

Thinking 5 to7 with a a few being low trackers.

[gatorcane]

yes I agree I think we'll see some low trackers too maybe impacting Texas and Southern Mexico

[cyclonaut]

5 - 7 sounds reasonable.

[Derek Ortt]

now what do you define as a CV system? Do you define a CV system as one forming south of 20N and east of 40W (the definition that I use)?

This is entirely SAL dependent and we cannot forecast the SAL this far in advance, though we could have some idea regarding the total number of storms if we were to get the mean shear magnitude (not the vector magnitude mean, but instead the magnitude mean -- by finding the magnitude of the shear at each grid point and taking the mean of those magnitudes)

[cycloneye]

now what do you define as a CV system? Do you define a CV system as one forming south of 20N and east of 40W (the definition that I use)?

This is entirely SAL dependent and we cannot forecast the SAL this far in advance, though we could have some idea regarding the total number of storms if we were to get the mean shear magnitude (not the vector magnitude mean, but instead the magnitude mean -- by finding the magnitude of the shear at each grid point and taking the mean of those magnitudes)

Yes those are the latitud and longitud I have too for a CV system. Agree Derek that the SAL factor is an enigma that may play an important roll.

[Opal storm]

I also say 5-7.I doubt we will see that many fish storms,I think most of them will slide west and enter the Carib/Gulf or hit the east coast.

[Derek Ortt]

since thats the lat/lon used, it is almost impossible for us to have more than 3-5 CV storms

[Rainband]

now what do you define as a CV system? Do you define a CV system as one forming south of 20N and east of 40W (the definition that I use)?

This is entirely SAL dependent and we cannot forecast the SAL this far in advance, though we could have some idea regarding the total number of storms if we were to get the mean shear magnitude (not the vector magnitude mean, but instead the magnitude mean -- by finding the magnitude of the shear at each grid point and taking the mean of those magnitudes)

With all due respect, aren't you being a tad technical, It is s system that forms from a wave that comes from the coast of africa isn't it??

[StormChasr]

I think the Cape Verde season will be above average this year with 5-7 storms. As of now I believe that the Bermuda High will exist this year but not be as strong or dominant as last year. As a result I'm calling for more fish storms than last year. Nonetheless, 1-2 will make it all the way into the Caribbean and West Atlantic...the main threat this year will be the GOM and Caribbean in my opinion

AARRRHHHHH!! Stop about the Bermuda High, and wait and see---the conditions are far from perfect for a Florida landfall as of now. It may change in the late summer/fall, but as of now, it isn't setting up to be a repeat of last year.

[Anonymous]

I said 8-10 as most tropical storms and hurricanes in the atlantic come from tropical waves from the cape verde islands and thus are cape verde storms--I think there will also be a few 'home grown' storms that form from fronts and other origins

[cyclonaut]

I think the Cape Verde season will be above average this year with 5-7 storms. As of now I believe that the Bermuda High will exist this year but not be as strong or dominant as last year. As a result I'm calling for more fish storms than last year. Nonetheless, 1-2 will make it all the way into the Caribbean and West Atlantic...the main threat this year will be the GOM and Caribbean in my opinion

AARRRHHHHH!! Stop about the Bermuda High, and wait and see---the conditions are far from perfect for a Florida landfall as of now. It may change in the late summer/fall, but as of now, it isn't setting up to be a repeat of last year.

I feel your anguish StormChasr!

I can't emphasize enough not to focus solely on the Sargazzo Sea High .This feature will sometimes be strong,sometimes be weak & sometimes will not be there at all.Its going to depend whats there when those canes come a calling as to where they will go.