The longer range still looks generally troughy with rain at times. Perhaps not as dramatic as some previous runs, but still wetter than normal. I will wait to see a few more runs before I commit to saying it's going to be a really cool and wet June. Right now, that is the way I am leaning. The straight westerly flow would suggest temps more below normal than this month.
If anyone wants to do a really fun study, look up the years with really wet June's. A good 80% lead to cold winters. I don't know why, but it is so.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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snow_wizzard
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andycottle
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You know... Tim and Snow wizzard just may be on to something here. Cause it does certainly look like we could have intetresting weather come this weekend as a positivly stacked 1008MB Low comes right over the coastal areas of Western Washington. The system also looks to spread plenty of showers into our area and possibly even an unstable airmass. But so far this evening, NGM and MRF aren`t showing that idea. With 850MB temps of +3C and 500MB heights being in the 558DM range and a south to WSW wind....this could spell some what muggy conditions. So will have to see what the weather does this weekend. -- Andy
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andycottle
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snow_wizzard
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I think the key to an exciting weekend is going to be how the extreme airmass change takes place. The GFS shows 850mb temps plummeting from about 17C Thursday night to about 2 by Friday night. That is a major crash! The thing that could pour water on the whole thing is if too much low level marine air comes in, before the upper level moisture arrives. If the onshore flow can hold off until the moisture comes in, WATCH OUT!
Last edited by snow_wizzard on Tue May 24, 2005 1:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TT-SEA
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andycottle
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Rain or no rain...?
Depending on what you want....and for some you folks that would be sunny and warm! But looking at the latest models this morning, the GFS and MRF sends a 1008MB low right inbetween the WA/OR coastal inland areas to give us some showers along with cooler temps, as in low-mid 60`s for the up coming weekend and into Tuesday of next week. Though the ECMWF and GEM models sends the low much further south and has it near the southern California coast. Which means we would at least stay mainly dry, sunny to partly cloudy, and pleasntly mild with temps in the mid 70`s to maybe around 80 through first of next week. So we all will have to see if the weekend will be showery or sunny and mild.
-- Andy
Depending on what you want....and for some you folks that would be sunny and warm! But looking at the latest models this morning, the GFS and MRF sends a 1008MB low right inbetween the WA/OR coastal inland areas to give us some showers along with cooler temps, as in low-mid 60`s for the up coming weekend and into Tuesday of next week. Though the ECMWF and GEM models sends the low much further south and has it near the southern California coast. Which means we would at least stay mainly dry, sunny to partly cloudy, and pleasntly mild with temps in the mid 70`s to maybe around 80 through first of next week. So we all will have to see if the weekend will be showery or sunny and mild.
-- Andy
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snow_wizzard
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The 12z GFS has not backed off one iota on the trough (upper level low center) late this week. I think the NWS may regret discounting it! Every run is showing heavy rain, which would probably be thunderstorms. This storm has the potential to easily make this the second wettest May on record for Sea - Tac.
The difference between the ECMWF and GFS is amazing right now.
TT...To answer your question about the normal time cycle for the MJO, there is none. The MJO has a mind of its own and can often be neutral for long periods of time. It is very unusually active this year.
The difference between the ECMWF and GFS is amazing right now.
TT...To answer your question about the normal time cycle for the MJO, there is none. The MJO has a mind of its own and can often be neutral for long periods of time. It is very unusually active this year.
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TT-SEA
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snow_wizzard
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TT...I agree that we will have a persistent zonal flow for early June. The question is how strong and what latitude the jetstream will be at. Overall it looks on the slightly below normal side for temps, and a bit wet. It would be very easy to go into a quite cool and wet regime with little warning in such a pattern.
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TT-SEA
My prediction is near normal temperatures and very little rain for the first week of June and maybe beyond. Weak zonal flow will not produce below normal temperatures. Even in a deep trough with clouds and rain we were just slightly below normal.
This weekend is the big question mark. The ETA (NAM) is trending weakly towards the GFS solution. But the GFS also trended a little south in the 12Z run and that would mean less rain here.
This weekend is the big question mark. The ETA (NAM) is trending weakly towards the GFS solution. But the GFS also trended a little south in the 12Z run and that would mean less rain here.
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snow_wizzard
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Will some places surpass the 90-degree mark on Thursday? The possibility is there...and it looks more likely with each model run.
A thermal trough is currently moving north along the OR coast...it will continue this path until it crosses Western Washington on Thursday afternoon, and then east of the cascades Friday morning. But how hot will things get?
Here are some updated predictions: Seattle-86F, Everett-83F, Olympia-89F, Tacoma-88F...Portland-92F. Thursday will be the warmest day of the season...by far.
As for this weekend, anything is possible...and that's all I have to say about that.
Anthony
A thermal trough is currently moving north along the OR coast...it will continue this path until it crosses Western Washington on Thursday afternoon, and then east of the cascades Friday morning. But how hot will things get?
Here are some updated predictions: Seattle-86F, Everett-83F, Olympia-89F, Tacoma-88F...Portland-92F. Thursday will be the warmest day of the season...by far.
As for this weekend, anything is possible...and that's all I have to say about that.
Anthony
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andycottle
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andycottle
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Viewing the latest 18Z GFS this evening....it appears that well still have some showers over the weekend and with possiblity of thunder storms as a negativly tilted 1016MB Low moves right over top of us. And with 850MB temps be at or above 15C+ for the Thursday/Friday time period and then droping to near 3C+ over the weekend...would say that there is at least a chance of T-Storms for the weekend due to an almost dramatic cooling of the upper atmosphere.
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snow_wizzard
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Is it actually clear???? 
It has literally been weeks on end since we have had a totally clear sky like this. Even the nice days we have had since I don't know how long ago have all had some clouds scattered around. I have to admit this is pretty. I wish all of the days, during this warm spell, could be like this one, brisk north winds and high temps in the mid 60s, but that's just me.
The ECMWF is starting to back off on holding the heat in here for days on end, but it is still much less dramatic on the cooling than the GFS. It is interesting to note that the analogs had been coming up with early June 1955 for a while. That situation was just like this...below normal temps which skyrocketed to record heat in just a couple of days and then a total collapse the next day. This also reminds of a freak heat wave we had in April 1984. I think 90 is highly possible with this. That is very rare to go from the mid 60s to 90 in two days!
It has literally been weeks on end since we have had a totally clear sky like this. Even the nice days we have had since I don't know how long ago have all had some clouds scattered around. I have to admit this is pretty. I wish all of the days, during this warm spell, could be like this one, brisk north winds and high temps in the mid 60s, but that's just me.
The ECMWF is starting to back off on holding the heat in here for days on end, but it is still much less dramatic on the cooling than the GFS. It is interesting to note that the analogs had been coming up with early June 1955 for a while. That situation was just like this...below normal temps which skyrocketed to record heat in just a couple of days and then a total collapse the next day. This also reminds of a freak heat wave we had in April 1984. I think 90 is highly possible with this. That is very rare to go from the mid 60s to 90 in two days!
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TT-SEA
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