Camile not as bad as I thought!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

the reanalysis is being conducted because the hurdat intensities are in many cases worthless guesses and the error can be as much as 50KT

the earlier revisions are somewhat sketchy due to lack of data, but once we hit the recon years then we will have a true analysis

[SouthernWx]

the reanalysis is being conducted because the hurdat intensities are in many cases worthless guesses and the error can be as much as 50KT

the earlier revisions are somewhat sketchy due to lack of data, but once we hit the recon years then we will have a true analysis

Since we're on the subject of re-analyzing past hurricanes....here's a few I expect to be changed (category raised or lowered)...based on my research:

1) 1915 Galveston....from cat-4 to cat-3 (damage was severe, but nowhere near carnage the 1900 hurricane caused...which was a 125 kt/ 936 mb cat-4; my estimate of 1915 cane is 110 kt/ 945 mb (130 mph).

2) 1917 Fla panhandle...from cat-3 to cat-2 (winds/ tides don't justify cat-3 rating)

3) 1921 Tampa Bay...from cat-3 to cat-2; possibly strong cat-1 (wind and tides don't justify cat-3 rating)...possibly as weak as 90 mph from surface obs.

4) 1935 Labor Day hurricane....expect sustained winds to be raised from current 140 kt to at least 160-165 kt; my research indicates it may have been closer to 170-175 kt (200 mph) with 200 kt gusts...from damage similar to F4 tornado and mangled/ sandblasted state of bodies found; I also believe this hurricane remained major (cat-3) until 2nd landfall west of Cedar Key...based on tides (highest at that location since 1896 major hurricane).

6) 1936 Florida panhandle....from cat-3 to cat-2 (964 mb; no winds approaching cat-3 intensity in landfall area)

7) 1944 East Coast hurricane...possibly from cat-3 to cat-4 (from Outer Banks to SE Virginia; sustained winds of 134 mph at Cape Henry, VA possibly warrant upgrade of this hurricane).

8) 1945 Miami-Homestead, FL (from cat-3 to cat-4 (based on wind obs from Homestead AFB and Carysfort Reef; caused extreme damage across southern Dade county)....this small but very intense hurricane likely sustained winds of 140 mph or more....with a landfall central pressure of 951 mb; severe damage from Dinner Key area to Key Largo).

9) 1955 "Connie"....from cat-3 to cat-2 (neither winds, pressure, nor tides were any greater than Floyd, Isabel, or Bonnie; all are rated cat-2's).

10) 1955 "Ione".....same deal as hurricane Connie; from cat-3 to cat-2 (similar to hurricane Connie; no sustained winds over 105 mph along Carolina coast).

11) 1958 "Helene"....this ferocious cat-4 hurricane isn't currently even rated as direct hit on North Carolina....even though gusts were clocked at 135 mph in downtown Wilmington with 125 mph sustained and peak gusts 155-160 mph at Cape Fear...which clearly was inside the north eyewall region; should be counted as a direct hit for Cape Fear, NC).

12) 1965 "Betsy"....from cat-3 to cat-4 in Louisiana (substantial evidence from tide levels and winds Betsy was almost as intense as 1957's Audrey...IMO 115 kt (135 mph) cat-4 at Grand Isle landfall.

13) 1974 "Carmen"....cat-3 to cat-2 (was weakening rapidly at landfall due to dry air
entrainment....sustained winds less than 100 kts along Terrebonne Parish coastal areas).

14) 1985 "Gloria"....from cat-3 to cat-2 in North Carolina; from cat-3 to cat-1 in New York/ Long Island)...winds and tides simply don't justify current ratings; Isabel caused far more damage along Outer Banks than Gloria....yet is rated cat-2; no sustained winds above 85 mph on Long Island.

PW

[BayouVenteux]

Since we're on the subject of re-analyzing past hurricanes....here's a few I expect to be changed (category raised or lowered)

...13) 1974 "Carmen"....cat-3 to cat-2 (was weakening rapidly at landfall due to dry air
entrainment....sustained winds less than 100 kts along Terrebonne Parish coastal areas).

Interesting that you would include Carmen, as much of the anecdotal evidence I have both heard and read over the years has lead me to wonder as much.

'74's "Carmen", similar to '02's "Lili", was designated, at the time, a healthy Category 4 some 12-18 hours before landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

Perry,

the official best track winds for Gloria are 90KT at Hat and 75KT at Long Island.

Before Dr Sheets became director, categories were assigned based upon pressure, not winds.

I also expect Alicia to be dropped to the 85-90KT range as surface winds are not any more impressive than those found in Claudette (FL winds are not that impressive either)

[Opal storm]

the reanalysis is being conducted because the hurdat intensities are in many cases worthless guesses and the error can be as much as 50KT

the earlier revisions are somewhat sketchy due to lack of data, but once we hit the recon years then we will have a true analysis

Since we're on the subject of re-analyzing past hurricanes....here's a few I expect to be changed (category raised or lowered)...based on my research:

1) 1915 Galveston....from cat-4 to cat-3 (damage was severe, but nowhere near carnage the 1900 hurricane caused...which was a 125 kt/ 936 mb cat-4; my estimate of 1915 cane is 110 kt/ 945 mb (130 mph).

2) 1917 Fla panhandle...from cat-3 to cat-2 (winds/ tides don't justify cat-3 rating)

3) 1921 Tampa Bay...from cat-3 to cat-2; possibly strong cat-1 (wind and tides don't justify cat-3 rating)...possibly as weak as 90 mph from surface obs.

4) 1935 Labor Day hurricane....expect sustained winds to be raised from current 140 kt to at least 160-165 kt; my research indicates it may have been closer to 170-175 kt (200 mph) with 200 kt gusts...from damage similar to F4 tornado and mangled/ sandblasted state of bodies found; I also believe this hurricane remained major (cat-3) until 2nd landfall west of Cedar Key...based on tides (highest at that location since 1896 major hurricane).

6) 1936 Florida panhandle....from cat-3 to cat-2 (964 mb; no winds approaching cat-3 intensity in landfall area)

7) 1944 East Coast hurricane...possibly from cat-3 to cat-4 (from Outer Banks to SE Virginia; sustained winds of 134 mph at Cape Henry, VA possibly warrant upgrade of this hurricane).

8) 1945 Miami-Homestead, FL (from cat-3 to cat-4 (based on wind obs from Homestead AFB and Carysfort Reef; caused extreme damage across southern Dade county)....this small but very intense hurricane likely sustained winds of 140 mph or more....with a landfall central pressure of 951 mb; severe damage from Dinner Key area to Key Largo).

9) 1955 "Connie"....from cat-3 to cat-2 (neither winds, pressure, nor tides were any greater than Floyd, Isabel, or Bonnie; all are rated cat-2's).

10) 1955 "Ione".....same deal as hurricane Connie; from cat-3 to cat-2 (similar to hurricane Connie; no sustained winds over 105 mph along Carolina coast).

11) 1958 "Helene"....this ferocious cat-4 hurricane isn't currently even rated as direct hit on North Carolina....even though gusts were clocked at 135 mph in downtown Wilmington with 125 mph sustained and peak gusts 155-160 mph at Cape Fear...which clearly was inside the north eyewall region; should be counted as a direct hit for Cape Fear, NC).

12) 1965 "Betsy"....from cat-3 to cat-4 in Louisiana (substantial evidence from tide levels and winds Betsy was almost as intense as 1957's Audrey...IMO 115 kt (135 mph) cat-4 at Grand Isle landfall.

13) 1974 "Carmen"....cat-3 to cat-2 (was weakening rapidly at landfall due to dry air
entrainment....sustained winds less than 100 kts along Terrebonne Parish coastal areas).

14) 1985 "Gloria"....from cat-3 to cat-2 in North Carolina; from cat-3 to cat-1 in New York/ Long Island)...winds and tides simply don't justify current ratings; Isabel caused far more damage along Outer Banks than Gloria....yet is rated cat-2; no sustained winds above 85 mph on Long Island.

PW

I totally disagree with re-analyzing past hurricanes because it just causes confusion and most likely their second guess is wrong.Especially on hurricanes from the early 1900s that we hardly have any info on.Hurricane Andrew was the only storm that needed to be changed.

[SouthernWx]

I totally disagree with re-analyzing past hurricanes because it just causes confusion and most likely their second guess is wrong.Especially on hurricanes from the early 1900s that we hardly have any info on.Hurricane Andrew was the only storm that needed to be changed.

Excuse me.....but I don't have the right to state my opinion based on three decades of dedicated research?

We need a standardized meteorological record of past landfalling U.S. hurricanes....and need a record that is as accurate as possible. For example, the 1935 Labor Day hurricane is still listed "officially" as a 160 mph hurricane at landfall in the Florida Keys....barely a category 5, even though we know it was obviously more intense.....and by a substantial margin. There were numerous dead bodies found on Long and Lower Matecumbe Key, Florida that were SANDBLASTED to death; skeletons found lashed to trees by leather belts, all clothes gone except for leather belt and shoes.
Others were found dismembered....beheaded, missing limbs; a disaster scene more indicative of an airliner crash OR violent tornado.

Considering the exceeding small diameter of the eyewall and extreme pressure gradient, it's not unreasonable to theorize sustained winds reached 200 mph or more, with peak gusts reaching 230....perhaps even 250 mph in the small NE eyewall; close to the winds of a F5 tornado. If we know this was the true intensity...why stick our heads in the sand and ignore history?

The 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane is still listed as a major landfalling hurricane (primarily because of a 952 mb/ 28.12" barometric pressure report from Tarpon Springs, FL)...even though storm tides only reached 10' and no wind gusts exceeded 100 mph. A 10' storm surge in Pinellas county is more indicative of a 90-100 mph hurricane....not 120-125 mph. If we know this was NOT a major landfalling hurricane, then why continue to ignore the facts....which skews the historical meteorological record?

Whether you are a research meteorologist or coastal resident/ vacationer.....it's very important that historical return periods of landfalling major hurricanes and severe (cat-4/5) hurricanes be as accurate as humanly possible (and updated if new evidence becomes available).

You brought up 1992's hurricane Andrew being upgraded from cat-4 to cat-5. It was apparent almost from the beginning (to me) that Andrew was far more intense than the 140 mph/ 932 mb intensity being reported from NHC (raised to 145 mph a few months later). The satellite images at landfall, radar images at landfall, and the almost incredible damage photos told me instantly this hurricane was "at least" borderline cat-5 (155 mph)....and likely even stronger considering the extreme gradient associated with such a small eyewall structure.

It took NHC and AOML/HRD a decade to "catch up", and determine the same thing I'd realized two days after the hurricane occurred....that a catastrophic cat-5 hurricane had slammed SFla (too bad the folks in Andrew's path weren't warned beforehand what hell on earth was coming down on them). Now, if having an accurate historical record on hurricane Andrew's intensity is important...then why isn't the same accuracy neccesary needed for all landfalling hurricanes for as far back as can be accurately assertained? IMO it IS as important....just as important, especially to local and state Emergency Management agencies.

In 2003, hurricane Isabel struck North Carolina causing extensive damage.....from winds and tides estimated as cat-2 intensity. In 1955, both hurricane Connie and Ione struck the North Carolina coast....neither possessed sustained winds, tides, nor central pressures as intense as Isabel, yet both Connie and Ione are rated cat-3's...as major landfalling hurricanes on North Carolina. A few years later (1958), severe hurricane Helene brought sustained winds of 125 mph to Cape Fear with 155-160 mph gusts....yet isn't even acknowledged as a direct hit on North Carolina

Having such inconsistencies in the hurricane historical record really bothers me....as a scientist and hurricane researcher, and as a student of meteorology; is very aggravating to me (just as it is to IMO most hurricane experts and enthusiasts).

To know the truth and not change the historical record is wrong....to realize there's a mistake and not correct it is foolish..

PW

[Huckster]

the reanalysis is being conducted because the hurdat intensities are in many cases worthless guesses and the error can be as much as 50KT

the earlier revisions are somewhat sketchy due to lack of data, but once we hit the recon years then we will have a true analysis

Since we're on the subject of re-analyzing past hurricanes....here's a few I expect to be changed (category raised or lowered)...based on my research:

1) 1915 Galveston....from cat-4 to cat-3 (damage was severe, but nowhere near carnage the 1900 hurricane caused...which was a 125 kt/ 936 mb cat-4; my estimate of 1915 cane is 110 kt/ 945 mb (130 mph).

2) 1917 Fla panhandle...from cat-3 to cat-2 (winds/ tides don't justify cat-3 rating)

3) 1921 Tampa Bay...from cat-3 to cat-2; possibly strong cat-1 (wind and tides don't justify cat-3 rating)...possibly as weak as 90 mph from surface obs.

4) 1935 Labor Day hurricane....expect sustained winds to be raised from current 140 kt to at least 160-165 kt; my research indicates it may have been closer to 170-175 kt (200 mph) with 200 kt gusts...from damage similar to F4 tornado and mangled/ sandblasted state of bodies found; I also believe this hurricane remained major (cat-3) until 2nd landfall west of Cedar Key...based on tides (highest at that location since 1896 major hurricane).

6) 1936 Florida panhandle....from cat-3 to cat-2 (964 mb; no winds approaching cat-3 intensity in landfall area)

7) 1944 East Coast hurricane...possibly from cat-3 to cat-4 (from Outer Banks to SE Virginia; sustained winds of 134 mph at Cape Henry, VA possibly warrant upgrade of this hurricane).

8) 1945 Miami-Homestead, FL (from cat-3 to cat-4 (based on wind obs from Homestead AFB and Carysfort Reef; caused extreme damage across southern Dade county)....this small but very intense hurricane likely sustained winds of 140 mph or more....with a landfall central pressure of 951 mb; severe damage from Dinner Key area to Key Largo).

9) 1955 "Connie"....from cat-3 to cat-2 (neither winds, pressure, nor tides were any greater than Floyd, Isabel, or Bonnie; all are rated cat-2's).

10) 1955 "Ione".....same deal as hurricane Connie; from cat-3 to cat-2 (similar to hurricane Connie; no sustained winds over 105 mph along Carolina coast).

11) 1958 "Helene"....this ferocious cat-4 hurricane isn't currently even rated as direct hit on North Carolina....even though gusts were clocked at 135 mph in downtown Wilmington with 125 mph sustained and peak gusts 155-160 mph at Cape Fear...which clearly was inside the north eyewall region; should be counted as a direct hit for Cape Fear, NC).

12) 1965 "Betsy"....from cat-3 to cat-4 in Louisiana (substantial evidence from tide levels and winds Betsy was almost as intense as 1957's Audrey...IMO 115 kt (135 mph) cat-4 at Grand Isle landfall.

13) 1974 "Carmen"....cat-3 to cat-2 (was weakening rapidly at landfall due to dry air
entrainment....sustained winds less than 100 kts along Terrebonne Parish coastal areas).

14) 1985 "Gloria"....from cat-3 to cat-2 in North Carolina; from cat-3 to cat-1 in New York/ Long Island)...winds and tides simply don't justify current ratings; Isabel caused far more damage along Outer Banks than Gloria....yet is rated cat-2; no sustained winds above 85 mph on Long Island.

PW

I totally disagree with re-analyzing past hurricanes because it just causes confusion and most likely their second guess is wrong.Especially on hurricanes from the early 1900s that we hardly have any info on.Hurricane Andrew was the only storm that needed to be changed.

Honesty demands that if Best Track can be corrected then it should be. While there is more information available for some storms than others, it would be irresponsible not to revise the storms for which there is compelling evidence that previous estimations were wrong. These revisions are not being pulled out of thin air, but are based on a wider body of evidence/documentation as well as better understanding of how wind and pressure relationships work.

[donsutherland1]

Great analysis, Perry. Really terrific research. It would not surprise me if a lot of what you discuss will ultimately be incorporated in the re-analyzed information.

[Anonymous]

3) 1921 Tampa Bay...from cat-3 to cat-2; possibly strong cat-1 (wind and tides don't justify cat-3 rating)...possibly as weak as 90 mph from surface obs.

Landsea actually said it was 110kts after the analysis.

[SouthernWx]

3) 1921 Tampa Bay...from cat-3 to cat-2; possibly strong cat-1 (wind and tides don't justify cat-3 rating)...possibly as weak as 90 mph from surface obs.

Landsea actually said it was 110kts after the analysis.

Then Dr Landsea apparently is privy to data that I've never seen (and have studied that particular hurricane in detail).

From what I've found, the only time this hurricane approached that level of intensity was far south of Florida (Yucatan Channel) where a ship report of 941 mb and estimated 120-130 mph winds. This was late in October.....so I seriously doubt such intensity was maintained to landfall point because:

a) normally by October 25th, sst and TCHC are lowering significantly in the shallow waters offshore Tampa Bay...

b) if one researches the October 1921 hurricane's path, it takes a sharp bend to the right just before landfall....with landfall near Tarpon Springs, then accelerating ENE -- exiting Florida near New Smyrna Beach. There was IMO significant and likely increasing shear as this hurricane approached Florida.....possibly dry air entrainment as well (similar to hurricane Opal's approach to the panhandle in 1995).

That would explain the low central pressure reading (952 mb), yet nowhere near the wind speed intensity nor storm surge heights normally associated with a hurricane of that central pressure range. I've never seen any verified data of winds exceeding 110 mph in the Tampa area (not even in gusts). I've went back and read old newspapers from that time; except for Pass a Grille Beach (Pinellas County), the damage in west central Florida wasn't that severe; certainly not what they expected (from personal accounts I read in the newspaper).

If Dr Landsea has data suggesting this hurricane supported sustained 110 kt winds at landfall, I'd love to see it....because I've had difficulty finding evidence the sustained winds were 85 kts at Tarpon Springs landfall.

PW

[SouthernWx]

Great analysis, Perry. Really terrific research. It would not surprise me if a lot of what you discuss will ultimately be incorporated in the re-analyzed information.

Thanks Don!
I always enjoy your insights and analysis...both on current/ forecast storms and past hurricanes. The radar track analysis (and images) of Camille you posted yesterday was fantastic (and vivid proof Camille was an extremely intense hurricane at landfall).

PW

[HurricaneBill]

14) 1985 "Gloria"....from cat-3 to cat-2 in North Carolina; from cat-3 to cat-1 in New York/ Long Island)...winds and tides simply don't justify current ratings; Isabel caused far more damage along Outer Banks than Gloria....yet is rated cat-2; no sustained winds above 85 mph on Long Island.

PW

IMHO, Gloria was definitely at least 65KT at Long Island landfall.

Personally, I think some revisions need to be made to the Saffir-Simpson scale. Category 2 and even Category 1 hurricanes are capable of being very destructive.

I remember when Isabel and Frances both weakened to Category 2s, some people began to write them off as "duds".

[Stratosphere747]

Perry,

the official best track winds for Gloria are 90KT at Hat and 75KT at Long Island.

Before Dr Sheets became director, categories were assigned based upon pressure, not winds.

I also expect Alicia to be dropped to the 85-90KT range as surface winds are not any more impressive than those found in Claudette (FL winds are not that impressive either)

Derek, as much as I want to argue about the strength between Alicia and Claudette....Not much difference between the two...Just the areas they effected.

Claudette for the middle Texas coast was as powerful as Alicia, but only had an impact on a limited amount of people compared to Alicia.....

[mobilebay]

Was there any hurricane derek that hit in the GOm outside of Florida Peninsula that is the correct intensity. Let see you said Alicia , OPAL, Ivan, Camille all were not as strong as indicated.

[Anonymous]

3) 1921 Tampa Bay...from cat-3 to cat-2; possibly strong cat-1 (wind and tides don't justify cat-3 rating)...possibly as weak as 90 mph from surface obs.

Landsea actually said it was 110kts after the analysis.

Then Dr Landsea apparently is privy to data that I've never seen (and have studied that particular hurricane in detail).

From what I've found, the only time this hurricane approached that level of intensity was far south of Florida (Yucatan Channel) where a ship report of 941 mb and estimated 120-130 mph winds. This was late in October.....so I seriously doubt such intensity was maintained to landfall point because:

a) normally by October 25th, sst and TCHC are lowering significantly in the shallow waters offshore Tampa Bay...

b) if one researches the October 1921 hurricane's path, it takes a sharp bend to the right just before landfall....with landfall near Tarpon Springs, then accelerating ENE -- exiting Florida near New Smyrna Beach. There was IMO significant and likely increasing shear as this hurricane approached Florida.....possibly dry air entrainment as well (similar to hurricane Opal's approach to the panhandle in 1995).

That would explain the low central pressure reading (952 mb), yet nowhere near the wind speed intensity nor storm surge heights normally associated with a hurricane of that central pressure range. I've never seen any verified data of winds exceeding 110 mph in the Tampa area (not even in gusts). I've went back and read old newspapers from that time; except for Pass a Grille Beach (Pinellas County), the damage in west central Florida wasn't that severe; certainly not what they expected (from personal accounts I read in the newspaper).

If Dr Landsea has data suggesting this hurricane supported sustained 110 kt winds at landfall, I'd love to see it....because I've had difficulty finding evidence the sustained winds were 85 kts at Tarpon Springs landfall.

PW

They actually found it was 140 mph in the Gulf, and weakened to 125 mph by landfall. The track was also changed slightly.

Here it is::: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/pre ... 040819.ppt

[SouthernWx]

They actually found it was 140 mph in the Gulf, and weakened to 125 mph by landfall. The track was also changed slightly.

Here it is::: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/pre ... 040819.ppt

Thanks for the link

[Derek Ortt]

half of the FL Peninsula hurricanes also are not of the correct intensity.

1. No evidence suggests that Alicia was a major hurricane. Absolutely none at all. Should be worth nothing that wind s on land from Claudette were higher than Alicia. Try reading the reports.

2. NHC has Opal correct at 100KT and it may be revised up to 105KT based upon FL winds

3. Mobile Bay, you may think that you have went through the worst, but you have not. The northern GOM will be obliterated when a real strong cat 3 or cat 4 hits the area and people will be saying that soemthing which is a strong cat 3 was really a 5 based upon the damage, much like some were saying regarding Ivan... areas that had not been hit since 1926 and didn't have the slightest clue as to what a real hurricane would do

[mobilebay]

You may be correct. However, Frederic in 1979 was a solid 3. Pressure 942MB. Wind gust a Dauphin Island bridge was 144 MPH. When the bridge collapsed and no further readings was available. Wind Damage in mobile County was horrendous. It looked like a bomb had been dropped.

[HurricaneBill]

Was there any hurricane derek that hit in the GOm outside of Florida Peninsula that is the correct intensity. Let see you said Alicia , OPAL, Ivan, Camille all were not as strong as indicated.

Don't get him started on New England.

[Valkhorn]

Don't forget to mention that a lot of times the anemometers break, and so it's hard to judge the real strength of a storm based on what the weather stations say.

Case in point: When Ivan went ashore and came through Alabama, the wind speeds in Meridian, MS (where my parents live) climbed all the way to 61mph when the weather station was destroyed. The winds were increasing after that happened and storm spotters around the area reported hurricane force (>74mph) gusts.

Keep in mind that Meridian also was in the line of Frederick in 1979, and by all accounts faced more damage during Ivan than Frederick.

We also know of the story about the anemometer in the 1900 hurricane in Galveston that got destroyed at a 140mph gust, and we also know about the anemometer during Andrew at the NHC that broke with a gust to 165mph.

Also, as to what Derrick is saying about Camille... I honestly don't think he's examined the photographs of the damage that well, or investigated all of the evidence.

I live in Hattiesburg now, which is 90 miles north of Gulfport, and just west of us in Columbia, MS during Camille winds were reported SUSTAINED at 120mph. Even if you look down on the coast today you can still see damage from Camille.

There is no doubt in my mind that the winds and pressure made it a strong category 5. The damage warrants it, the pressure warrants it, and eyewitness accounts of the wind warrants it.

Andrew is now officially at 165mph at landfall, and Camille did damage that was a little more extreme than Andrew. That at least makes it >165mph in my book, and since the pressure was a good 10-13 mb lower it's fairly obvious that it was at least 170 to 175mph. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 180 to 185.

I think Derrik just wishes to downplay too much.