May Pattern Across FL Much Different Than Last Year

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's nearing the end of May 2005 across FL...

The pattern is clearly different than last year. We have troughs still moving through (with dry not cold air), westerlies are strong, rain/storms building on the east and southeast coasts...it looks more like your typical May then last year. Last year featured dominant E winds with little rain along the E and SE coasts of FL, rain along the west coast as the Bermuda High feature was setting up shop already...

It's looking like this Bermuda High is going to wait longer than last year...which could be some good news for the East Coast of FL...but as I watch May unfold I'm leaning more tolds GOM and Caribbean threats for FL this hurricane season. I've started leaning this way in early to mid May. Thus the West coast , Panhandle, and lower to middle Keys may be at more risk.

Of course we can't base everything on May but I think May in some ways foreshadows the months ahead....

[Scorpion]

This topic has been beaten to death. The models are showing a strong high setting up and the beginning of a summer pattern. Shear should lessen. Just because there is no Bermuda High in May doesnt mean that a hurricane cannot strike Florida from the east. Its just late this year.

[Bocadude85]

You know I lived here last year to and though there are slight differences between last year and this year I havent noticed huge differences. And just to point out one thing, south florida has not been hit by a hurricane from the east since 1992 south florida being miami-dade, broward, palm beach counties. Not saying that means anything but climatology would certiantly suggest so fla could be at risk. just my opinion though

[mobilebay]

You know I lived here last year to and though there are slight differences between last year and this year I havent noticed huge differences. And just to point out one thing, south florida has not been hit by a hurricane from the east since 1992 south florida being miami-dade, broward, palm beach counties. Not saying that means anything but climatology would certiantly suggest so fla could be at risk. just my opinion though

South Florida is at High risk every year in my book. In 1992 there was no dominating Bermuda high up until the days preceding Andrew.

[Tertius]

You know I lived here last year to and though there are slight differences between last year and this year I havent noticed huge differences. And just to point out one thing, south florida has not been hit by a hurricane from the east since 1992 south florida being miami-dade, broward, palm beach counties. Not saying that means anything but climatology would certiantly suggest so fla could be at risk. just my opinion though

I must be missing something. Which direction do you suppose Jeanne and Frances came from last year?

[Derek Ortt]

actually in 1992 the dominant high lasted most of August and September, as evidenced by the monthly mean 500mb geopotential heights, as well as steering flow

Also, S Fla was hit from the east in 1998. S Fla does not only include Dade, but the Keys as well

[vacanechaser]

This topic has been beaten to death. The models are showing a strong high setting up and the beginning of a summer pattern. Shear should lessen. Just because there is no Bermuda High in May doesnt mean that a hurricane cannot strike Florida from the east. Its just late this year.

I agree... I am tired of hearing about May.. Anyone who thinks that something may or may not happen in August or September due to a pattern in May is just foolish... Ever since the talk of a dry spring in Florida may put Florida at risk, a few people have gone ape with that. Florida possibly could be under the gun just as much as anyone else. Give the May issue a rest for goodness sakes..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[dhweather]

Fret not, June is days away!

[Bocadude85]

yes im very aware that south florida includes monroe county, but I did not include the keys in my definition of south florida, and last year jeanne and frances made landfall in martin county or the treasure coast not south florida.

[cyclonaut]

Scorpion wrote;

This topic has been beaten to death

Man you got that right!!


Mobilebay wrote;

South Florida is at High risk every year in my book.

I agree,I don't care how many people put out landfall forecast stating the opposite.


Derek Ortt wrote;

Also, S Fla was hit from the east in 1998. S Fla does not only include Dade, but the Keys as well

Again very true!


Bocadude85 wrote;

last year jeanne and frances made landfall in martin county or the treasure coast not south florida.

Some people consider where Frances & Jeanne made landfall South Florida for some reason...IMO it isnt.

[boca]

Vero Bch and South is considered S FL, but not extreme S FL like Dade and Broward.

[cyclonaut]

Vero Bch and South is considered S FL, but not extreme S FL like Dade and Broward.

Depends who you talk to.Some consider that to be south-central Florida.

[Bocadude85]

The national weather service in Melbourne handles the forecasts for martin county and north of there. While the national weather service in miami handles forcasts for palm beach and south. So one could argue that martin county is considered central florida.

[cyclonaut]

The national weather service in Melbourne handles the forecasts for martin county and north of there. While the national weather service in miami handles forcasts for palm beach and south. So one could argue that martin county is considered central florida.

Good point BocaDude & I have also heard local METS down here point out the South Fla is from Jupiter south to Key West & then up to Ft.Myers on the west coast

[gatorcane]

South Florida in my book is Palm Beach, Broward, Dade, and Monroe...but for some reason people in Vero Beach and Stuart/Ft. Pierce think they are in S. Florida. Climate is alot different once you get south of about Jupiter/Palm Beach....Gulf stream is not close enough once you get north of that...

[gatorcane]

Kiss the dry may good bye for S. Florida it's raining like mad!

[gatorcane]

Kevin...I always hear Lee/Collier as Southwest Florida. Palm Beach, Broward, Dade, and Monroe is South Florida. There is no southeast FL.

[Blown Away]

SFL almost on par for normal rainfall.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/curre/rainmaps/monthly.html