IWIC 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here it is folks....

http://www.independentwx.com/Printable.html

Comments, questions, and criticsm are welcome.

FWIW, we decided to keep the QBO parameter despite NOAA's decision.

[Scorpion]

Very good and thorough. Also similar to my call.

[LarryWx]

Well thought out and excellent writeup Jason and Rob.

Regarding GA just to set the record straight: we've not had a MAJOR hurricane in over 100 years, but we have had two hurricanes that did make landfall squarely on the GA coast (i.e. not S SC or NE FL) during the 1900's:

1) David in 1979 made landfall in GA just south of Savannah near Ossabaw Island as a borderline cat 1-2 hurricane with portions of Savannah very close to the eye shortly afterward.
I was in Savannah when this storm hit. it was a real mess.

2) On 10/15/1947, a cat. 2 hurricane made landfall in GA just south of Savannah moving due westward. The Oct. 1947 hurricane was the first one in which seeding was
performed to try to weaken it. The seeding was done around 10/13/1947 as the storm was headed NE several hundred miles offshore and appeared to be moving harmlessly
out to sea. However, the storm failed to weaken with any significance, held its own, suddenly made a 135 degree left hairpin turn by the next day from a point about 400 miles due east of Savannah, and started to strengthen. It was now moving due westward and struck the coast near Savannah on 10/15 causing quite a bit of damage in that area.

So, if there is a seeding project this year, you may want to up the chances for GA.

[gatorcane]

Your analysis is very thorough...I agree with the East Coast of FL forecast...I don't see this a target either this year...BUT one overall flaw I see in your analysys is that it only accounts for the last 55 years....that means your analysis completely misses a big chunk of the active 1920s - 1950s...where FL for example was hit by a major hurricane once every 2 years....I think your analysis would be alot different with this data. I know it must be more difficult to find data before 1950 but I think it's crucial

[Steve]

Great job as always Rob and Jason. I've been looking forward to your write-up all offseason. Obviously my concern is the northern Gulf. We debated after the 2003 season which climatologically wasn't supposed to have as much activity following years with 5 or more named storms in the Gulf. But the trend lasted for about 3 years. I'm figuring 2005 has to break the trend. I've seen a few other respected sites using different analog years as they use different parameters. 1969 and 1995 have popped up on more than one. I haven't done any kind of thorough analysis on this season yet, and I'm not even sure if I am going to. Most signs point to an above-average number of named storms this year (13-15), but I'm still not convinced that all signs of El Nino are dead. I'm waiting for the gov't of the AU to release the May forecast lead time models to see what they're going to do. The kelvin wave from late winter followed a serious dip in the SOI as you guys noted. It's been pretty far down again since May 14, 2005:

-13.80
-27.70
-31.90
-43.40
-39.80
-37.20
-36.10
-30.80
-26.20
-18.20
-20.20
-21.20

What I can't say is whether or not this portends an additional warm burst or if it's just a function of a temporary winter pattern the last 10 days. I haven't followed the SOI close enough this year to gauge any timing of peaks and valleys in the index. Nor have I followed the weather down in Darwin or Tahiti outside of an occasional glance at Long Paddock. But it would seem to me that if the trend stays mostly negative for the usual 10-15 day bursts followed by neutral to slightly positive readings over the succeeding 10 or so day period, that there's at least a reasonable chance of a warm bias ENSO 3-4 if not the persistent SW flow we saw so often this winter. As of today, the warmest bias lies near the Leeward and Windward Islands. Absent any strong bias in the equatorial Pacific, I'd look to see how the warm water SSTA's spread out between now until the end of July. I think that's a major signal in the event ENSO stays technically neutral and could portend problems for the islands.

As for the Gulf, it seems as though south and/or central Texas looks like a prime target this year based on your analogs. But I think the NE Gulf stands a pretty good shot at a landfalling system, and possibly a strong one, as well. I'm waiting to see the SSTA reversals before I'm convinced though. I'd bet Louisiana gets at least 1 Tropical Storm this year or absent that, at least a significant scare sans the landfall as we generally do in uptick multi-decadinal (sp?) cycles.

I like your take on recurvatures this year. We should see a bunch of fish spinners. Every year has them, but they get lost between the CONUS threats. But just the same, I wouldn't be surprised to see 4 or 5 landfalling named storms between the Outer Banks and Northern Mexico. While no one expects a repeat of the factors that made 2004 a year for the recordbooks, I do think 2005 offers the proimse of excitement and several potential landfalls. It should be an interesting season that hopefully spares us all a little more than 2004 did. But several states and locales may well be realizing threats this year based on the little bit of digging I've been doing.

Thanks again, as always, for all the research and effort that goes into Independent wx products.

Steve

[weatherwindow]

great analysis.....and i concur with your take on the revival of cyclogenesis in the western carib. although the "return to the 40s" argument is suspect based on only one year of data, such a pattern would favor a prolonged period of enhanced late season formation in the western caribbean with implicit threats to cuba and the keys. further, i favor neutral enso conditions trending to slow cooling prior to a mature la nina in place by mid 2006. thus, late season conditions may be considerably more favorable in that area than has been the case over the last three seasons. just as a point of reference....the infamous 40s featured fla landfalling late season hurricanes in 1941, 1944, 1946. 1947, 1948, and 1950. ......as far as your peak season analysis goes, i also see a departure from the long westerly tracks of last year. however, i still see a possible fla east coast landfall via the aforementioned late development of wave in the central or western bahamas. while synoptic pattern may not favor a long westerly track, these anamalous developments can sometimes "sneak" under the troughiness. the labor day hurricane of 1935 was just such an animal(no inferences as to intensity are intended!). a more recent example is erin in 1995. despite a ridge-trough pattern over the us in both years, both storms avoided early recurvature by forming west and south of the adverse upper-level steering. if southeast fla is going to experience a landfall from an easterly quadrant, i feel it will most likely follow such a scenario.....let the games begin:)............rich

[cycloneye]

Well done outlook from both Jason and Rob.I only differ in one point and that is about the Gulf of Mexico lack of activity that you say there.I think that the gulf will have an active season because of the lack of el nino with homegrown systems and a few trackers from the Caribbean.But apart from that point I agree with the rest of the outlook.

[wxwonder12]

Looks like S Fla might be ok this season according to the forecast. Watch out NC. Lets hope for fish!!!

[skywarn]

I only differ in one point and that is about the Gulf of Mexico lack of activity that you say there.I think that the gulf will have an active season because of the lack of el nino with homegrown systems and a few trackers from the Caribbean.

I also agree.

[Anonymous]

I only differ in one point and that is about the Gulf of Mexico lack of activity that you say there.I think that the gulf will have an active season because of the lack of el nino with homegrown systems and a few trackers from the Caribbean.

I also agree.

Neutral ENSO conditions were factored in. Other parameters did not suggest that major GOM hits were as likely as last season. Only thing left to do now is watch what happens.

[Anonymous]

Great job as always Rob and Jason. I've been looking forward to your write-up all offseason. Obviously my concern is the northern Gulf. We debated after the 2003 season which climatologically wasn't supposed to have as much activity following years with 5 or more named storms in the Gulf. But the trend lasted for about 3 years. I'm figuring 2005 has to break the trend. I've seen a few other respected sites using different analog years as they use different parameters. 1969 and 1995 have popped up on more than one. I haven't done any kind of thorough analysis on this season yet, and I'm not even sure if I am going to. Most signs point to an above-average number of named storms this year (13-15), but I'm still not convinced that all signs of El Nino are dead. I'm waiting for the gov't of the AU to release the May forecast lead time models to see what they're going to do. The kelvin wave from late winter followed a serious dip in the SOI as you guys noted. It's been pretty far down again since May 14, 2005:

-13.80
-27.70
-31.90
-43.40
-39.80
-37.20
-36.10
-30.80
-26.20
-18.20
-20.20
-21.20

What I can't say is whether or not this portends an additional warm burst or if it's just a function of a temporary winter pattern the last 10 days. I haven't followed the SOI close enough this year to gauge any timing of peaks and valleys in the index. Nor have I followed the weather down in Darwin or Tahiti outside of an occasional glance at Long Paddock. But it would seem to me that if the trend stays mostly negative for the usual 10-15 day bursts followed by neutral to slightly positive readings over the succeeding 10 or so day period, that there's at least a reasonable chance of a warm bias ENSO 3-4 if not the persistent SW flow we saw so often this winter. As of today, the warmest bias lies near the Leeward and Windward Islands. Absent any strong bias in the equatorial Pacific, I'd look to see how the warm water SSTA's spread out between now until the end of July. I think that's a major signal in the event ENSO stays technically neutral and could portend problems for the islands.

As for the Gulf, it seems as though south and/or central Texas looks like a prime target this year based on your analogs. But I think the NE Gulf stands a pretty good shot at a landfalling system, and possibly a strong one, as well. I'm waiting to see the SSTA reversals before I'm convinced though. I'd bet Louisiana gets at least 1 Tropical Storm this year or absent that, at least a significant scare sans the landfall as we generally do in uptick multi-decadinal (sp?) cycles.

I like your take on recurvatures this year. We should see a bunch of fish spinners. Every year has them, but they get lost between the CONUS threats. But just the same, I wouldn't be surprised to see 4 or 5 landfalling named storms between the Outer Banks and Northern Mexico. While no one expects a repeat of the factors that made 2004 a year for the recordbooks, I do think 2005 offers the proimse of excitement and several potential landfalls. It should be an interesting season that hopefully spares us all a little more than 2004 did. But several states and locales may well be realizing threats this year based on the little bit of digging I've been doing.

Thanks again, as always, for all the research and effort that goes into Independent wx products.

Steve

The SOI hasn't had a significant impact on subsurface temperatures over the last few months. Any increase in ENSO region 3.4 temps would be foreshadowed by warming DTAs in the west.

El Nino still can't be ruled out entirely.

[Anonymous]

As for the Gulf, it seems as though south and/or central Texas looks like a prime target this year based on your analogs. But I think the NE Gulf stands a pretty good shot at a landfalling system, and possibly a strong one, as well. I'm waiting to see the SSTA reversals before I'm convinced though. I'd bet Louisiana gets at least 1 Tropical Storm this year or absent that, at least a significant scare sans the landfall as we generally do in uptick multi-decadinal (sp?) cycles.

A couple things about GOM SSTs...I'd never be concerned about Spring GOM SSTAs. This year, temps started off a little cooler than average along the central Gulf Coast, but ever since New Orleans has been in the mid 90s the last week or so SSTs have surged. Current surface temps are near or higher than average across much of the Gulf as of May 25. Finally, from a statistical point of view, the probability of Louisiana getting hit during cool ATC years is just as good, if not higher than warm ATC years.

To reiterate that ENSO is not the be all, end all of landfall forecasting parameters lets not forget 57,65,97, and 02.

[Stormcenter]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Here it is folks....

http://www.independentwx.com/Printable.html

Comments, questions, and criticsm are welcome.

FWIW, we decided to keep the QBO parameter despite NOAA's decision.

I hope you're right about the GOM but somehow I've got a gut feeling we'll be sweating out another scare ala "Ivan" somewhere along the GOM coastline in mid Sept. 2005.

[Steve]

>>Finally, from a statistical point of view, the probability of Louisiana getting hit during cool ATC years is just as good, if not higher than warm ATC years

Thanks. That appears to be conflicted somewhat by your take on what high pressure might do this year (westward steering in the Gulf, poleward in the eastern Gulf). I guess we never know. The right ingredients at the right place at the right time and all bets are off. Bastardi mentioned the increased likelihood of an active US landfalling season in conjunction with early storm tracks in the WPAC. That's something else I'm going to be looking at. 2004 was a bear for SE Asia and Japan.

>>The SOI hasn't had a significant impact on subsurface temperatures over the last few months. Any increase in ENSO region 3.4 temps would be foreshadowed by warming DTAs in the west

Thanks for the tidbit. I was noticing that there didn't even appear to be much surface change (per OTIS). I guess there would still be some westerly bursts, maybe just not kelvin waves and the like.

Keep up the good work.

Steve

[Anonymous]

>>Finally, from a statistical point of view, the probability of Louisiana getting hit during cool ATC years is just as good, if not higher than warm ATC years

Thanks. That appears to be conflicted somewhat by your take on what high pressure might do this year (westward steering in the Gulf, poleward in the eastern Gulf). I guess we never know. The right ingredients at the right place at the right time and all bets are off. Bastardi mentioned the increased likelihood of an active US landfalling season in conjunction with early storm tracks in the WPAC. That's something else I'm going to be looking at. 2004 was a bear for SE Asia and Japan.

>>The SOI hasn't had a significant impact on subsurface temperatures over the last few months. Any increase in ENSO region 3.4 temps would be foreshadowed by warming DTAs in the west

Thanks for the tidbit. I was noticing that there didn't even appear to be much surface change (per OTIS). I guess there would still be some westerly bursts, maybe just not kelvin waves and the like.

Keep up the good work.

Steve

Typically, if there is no surface warming by June, then an El Nino will not be underway by ASO. Subsurface temps are slowly cooling...so the surface will not significantly warm over the next couple weeks. Furthermore, POAMA, which has been one of the more warm biased models, is reacting to the subsurface cooling. All indications lead us to expect neutral conditions.

The point about the ATC and LA landfalls has little to do with this season. My main point is that a warm GOM doesn't automatically place the Gulf Coast under a much higher risk than normal.....the other parameters (and specifically a particular combination imo) must be looked at.

Thanks Steve.

[BayouVenteux]

While there's no verification pages on your site yet, I thought people viewing the IWIC 2005 forecast might like to review the 2004 forecast to get an idea how you fared.

http://www.independentwx.com/2004.html

I was very impressed with the number of trends you predicted that came to fruition and would like to commend you for the research and effort you put into your forecasts each season.

Keep up the good work guys!

[OuterBanker]

Good reading, well researched, makes sense. I most like the in depth explanations of all the acronyms that are used and how they are used in your forecast for the coming season. Dr. Grays abstract uses to many acronyms without explanation and can be difficult to read. But most important is your analysis of the different regions and their vulnerability. You guys really go out on a limb on calling what areas you think will be under the gun. I think that is refreshing, you call it as you see it and let us decide. There is one thing though, I hope you're wrong.

[hurricanefloyd5]

if we get alot of fish storm please people donyt fish to storms out and bring them inland!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

Jason and Rob you guys have 15/8/4 the same as the latest update from Dr Gray.And I know that you didn't see the latest from the doc before you issued your forecast as the advanced Gray update came out on the 26th one day after yours.

[Rainband]

While there's no verification pages on your site yet, I thought people viewing the IWIC 2005 forecast might like to review the 2004 forecast to get an idea how you fared.

http://www.independentwx.com/2004.html

I was very impressed with the number of trends you predicted that came to fruition and would like to commend you for the research and effort you put into your forecasts each season.

Keep up the good work guys!

thanks I was gonna ask for a link.