Dr Gray raises his numbers again=15/8/4,June Update

[Ola]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/fo ... une05.html

Do they start posting pieces of the report earlier than the actual release?

When is the next update?

[Brent]

He raised the numbers AGAIN

15-8-4

[Agua]

Looks like you found an unreleased version of the May 31, 2005 update.
May well be some revisions, but the holiday weekend is upon us, so ...

[Ola]

Yeah I think this will be the final product so I will change the Subject of the thread.

[drezee]

yes SST near highest on record....

[SouthernWx]

yes SST near highest on record....

That's the most ominous part of his report...increased potential for a catastrophic or possibly even record breaking intensity maxi-hurricane.

I haven't researched extensively, but cannot recall a category 5 Atlantic hurricane occurring in three consecutive seasons. With sst's near record levels, we may witness another cat-5 monster similar to Isabel or Ivan (or potentially even more intense hurricane later this year

[cajungal]

[mobilebay]

Now I'm fired up and ready to go!!! Wait, I have to wait until August probably.

[tomboudreau]

Since 2003 had Isabelle as a Cat 5, and last year it was Ivan that was the Cat 5. Maybe, this year Irene will be the Cat 5 monster we will all remember. Seems only right since the previous 2 years where both I's.

[MWatkins]

This...to me...is the most significant passage I have seen from their forecasts...ever. And I hope this makes the final draft because we have been hammering away on this for the last 6 months:

The reader will note that we have raised our forecast considerably from what the statistics would indicate. This is due to the fact that we are in a new active era for Atlantic major hurricane activity, and Atlantic SST conditions are close to being the highest on record. We believe these unusually warm Atlantic SST conditions are high enough this year that they will trump most of our usual seasonal statistical predictors shown in Table 1.

Atlantic SST conditions are close to becoming the HIGHEST ON RECORD.

Heck yeah they are...here's the latest Reynolds SST anom analysis:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

I mean...GOODNESS...I am usually the last to hype but have you seen this? The ENTIRE basin is running warm except off the Carolinas...and that should reverse as the mid-layer ridging kicks in next week. Look east of the Islands...+2C isotherms at least. And Africa? +3C? I have not seen this at this time of year...ever.

Well...there's a headline for us weather geeks...huh?

MW

[cyclonaut]

For those who think that it can't get any worse than last season..Things are setting up for something catastrophic to happen somewhere.

[hurricanetrack]

Be very afraid.

And, be prepared. I know I will be. I am calling Nationwide in the morning to add the (optional) wind coverage to my policy. This really has me worried. I hope it motivates people like never before.

[Derek Ortt]

The only way it will be worse than last year is if a major meteo area receives a direct hit from a major hurricane. Last year, Charley made a direct hit on the center of Orlando; however, due to its small size, it only hit the city as a cat 1. Had it been larger, it may have been a strong 2 or even a 3 in the center of the city, which would have laid waste to much of the area (Charley was bad enough for the region). Also, Charley passed just 10 miles west of Havana, but brough nothing to the center of the city while totally leveling the western subarbs

Other than that happening, it wont top last year with its 6 tropical storm hits, 7 cat 1-2 hits, 10 cat 3-5 hits, the 40+ billion in damage, and the thousands killed. Barring a major strike on someplace like NYC, we aren't going to top that and last eyar will be the example as to what a truly bad hurricane season is

[mobilebay]

Now the only question is when will the fun start? Will we have to wait until August, or will this be a fast starting season?

[P.K.]

I thought my guess of 15-8-4 was a little high but I'm not so sure now.

[mobilebay]

I thought my guess of 15-8-4 was a little high but I'm not so sure now.

Dr. Grey sure thinks your correct. WOW!!!

[cycloneye]

My only reaction is

[Ground_Zero_92]

I thought my guess of 15-8-4 was a little high but I'm not so sure now.

15/8/4 was my prediction as well. I also thought I may have been a bit high. Now I hope we're all wrong.

[tailgater]

Hey guys I didn't want to start a new thread, but can someone tell me how the QBO winds help prevent hurricane development or do they limit the intensity. Dr. Gray doesn't seem too concerned with the African dust that could help prevent development in the eastern and central Atlantic, which is probably Not a good thing.

[Scorpion]

Good thing I updated my numbers. Even that may be a little too low .