


Moderator: S2k Moderators
Derek Ortt wrote:we saw last year what happens when you have hyper activity with ridging over the EC.
The main difference in terms of numbers between last year and 1995 is that we only had 1 storm form (Alex) before Aug 1, while in 1995 we had 5. 1995 had no November storms, while last year had 1. That leaves Aug-Oct with 1995 only producing 1 more than last year
Last year was that bad scenario
HurricaneBill wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:I'm saying that it is almost impossible for a repeat of last year (see my post in the Gray thread for more info). Not to say it wont be bad, but as I lay out there, last eyar was truly special
Last year was like a horror movie!
Derek Ortt wrote:had a cat 5 had hit the USA, we'd have hit for the cycle so to speak... a TD (Ivan) TS (Frances, Hermine, Jeanne, Matthew) Cat 1 (Charley-Carolina, Gaston) Cat 2 (Alex, Frances) Cat 3 (Ivan, Jeanne) Cat 4 (Charley) a cat 5 would have mean that the USA would have experienced the landfall of each category of tropical cyclone in one season, for the first time in I beleive, ever
dhweather wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:had a cat 5 had hit the USA, we'd have hit for the cycle so to speak... a TD (Ivan) TS (Frances, Hermine, Jeanne, Matthew) Cat 1 (Charley-Carolina, Gaston) Cat 2 (Alex, Frances) Cat 3 (Ivan, Jeanne) Cat 4 (Charley) a cat 5 would have mean that the USA would have experienced the landfall of each category of tropical cyclone in one season, for the first time in I beleive, ever
Hit for the cycle - never thought of it that way.
lsu2001 wrote:I have a question and I am not trying to be a Smart A### but If i were to post that La. is overdue for a hurricane because we haven't been hit by a big one since andrew I believe people would say that "each year is its own year and there is no such thing as being overdue." However if someone says that "because last year was so bad a repeat is not statistically likely" this seems to be accepted. What is the difference in being overdue because you havent been hit and getting hit a bunch and not having this repeat. I am missing something somewhere guys. Please help clarify.
Tim
mobilebay wrote:HurricaneBill wrote:Last year was like a horror movie!
I agree 100%. I remember thinking there is no way this storm is going to hit Florida too. I even remember posting a comment about Ivan saying there was no way it was going to Florida, that the odds was against it. The odds meant nothing last year. Although technically Ivan's Eye hit in Alabama, Florida got the worst by far.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 85 guests