Could this season rival 1995?

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Could this season rival 1995?

#1 Postby mobilebay » Fri May 27, 2005 1:31 am

I think it could or even be worse. :eek: No I'm not crazy. What I mean by worse is what if you had the activity of 95 with a strong Bermuda high in place. This is quiet possible. I'm really beginning to believe this may be a record breaking year. I also believe that the season could start fairly early like 95, I sure don't think the SST's will stop it. I know I have not posted any real data to back up my claim, but it seems like everything is coming together. All of this is just my opinion and not the Gospel. So go easy. 8-) 8-)
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 27, 2005 1:33 am

we saw last year what happens when you have hyper activity with ridging over the EC.

The main difference in terms of numbers between last year and 1995 is that we only had 1 storm form (Alex) before Aug 1, while in 1995 we had 5. 1995 had no November storms, while last year had 1. That leaves Aug-Oct with 1995 only producing 1 more than last year

Last year was that bad scenario
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#3 Postby mobilebay » Fri May 27, 2005 1:35 am

Derek Ortt wrote:we saw last year what happens when you have hyper activity with ridging over the EC.

The main difference in terms of numbers between last year and 1995 is that we only had 1 storm form (Alex) before Aug 1, while in 1995 we had 5. 1995 had no November storms, while last year had 1. That leaves Aug-Oct with 1995 only producing 1 more than last year

Last year was that bad scenario

So your saying the chances of a scenario of last year is unlikely?
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#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 27, 2005 1:44 am

I'm saying that it is almost impossible for a repeat of last year (see my post in the Gray thread for more info). Not to say it wont be bad, but as I lay out there, last eyar was truly special
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#5 Postby mobilebay » Fri May 27, 2005 1:51 am

Thank you Derek. It would be hard to squeeze many more storms in during the peak than we had last year (August-September). I think the numbers will be there, it's just if they are a fish, or landfallers. 8-)
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#6 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 27, 2005 2:18 am

in fact, both 1995 and 2004 had 7 storms in august and 3 in september
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#7 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri May 27, 2005 3:04 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I'm saying that it is almost impossible for a repeat of last year (see my post in the Gray thread for more info). Not to say it wont be bad, but as I lay out there, last eyar was truly special


Last year was like a horror movie!
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#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri May 27, 2005 3:17 am

had a cat 5 had hit the USA, we'd have hit for the cycle so to speak... a TD (Ivan) TS (Frances, Hermine, Jeanne, Matthew) Cat 1 (Charley-Carolina, Gaston) Cat 2 (Alex, Frances) Cat 3 (Ivan, Jeanne) Cat 4 (Charley) a cat 5 would have mean that the USA would have experienced the landfall of each category of tropical cyclone in one season, for the first time in I beleive, ever
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#9 Postby mobilebay » Fri May 27, 2005 4:17 am

HurricaneBill wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'm saying that it is almost impossible for a repeat of last year (see my post in the Gray thread for more info). Not to say it wont be bad, but as I lay out there, last eyar was truly special


Last year was like a horror movie!

I agree 100%. I remember thinking there is no way this storm is going to hit Florida too. I even remember posting a comment about Ivan saying there was no way it was going to Florida, that the odds was against it. The odds meant nothing last year. Although technically Ivan's Eye hit in Alabama, Florida got the worst by far. 8-)
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#10 Postby skysummit » Fri May 27, 2005 8:35 am

Maybe Florida won't have it as bad as last year, but if such a strong Bermuda High takes shape, wouldn't that push more activity into the GOM? Just asking. :D
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#11 Postby sponger » Fri May 27, 2005 9:01 am

Good point sky. Take a look at the tracks from 95

http://www2.sptimes.com/weather/HF.6.html

Move that activity 2000 miles west and you have a disaster.
Depending on the set up in Aug Sept could have alot of fun watching deep fish generating phenomenal surf or could be the worst on record.

I think likely somewhere in between. I am certainly not a doom and gloomer but anyone who isnt preparing for Aug Sept is taking a big risk!
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#12 Postby dhweather » Fri May 27, 2005 9:30 am

Derek Ortt wrote:had a cat 5 had hit the USA, we'd have hit for the cycle so to speak... a TD (Ivan) TS (Frances, Hermine, Jeanne, Matthew) Cat 1 (Charley-Carolina, Gaston) Cat 2 (Alex, Frances) Cat 3 (Ivan, Jeanne) Cat 4 (Charley) a cat 5 would have mean that the USA would have experienced the landfall of each category of tropical cyclone in one season, for the first time in I beleive, ever


Hit for the cycle - never thought of it that way.
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#13 Postby BayouVenteux » Fri May 27, 2005 9:41 am

dhweather wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:had a cat 5 had hit the USA, we'd have hit for the cycle so to speak... a TD (Ivan) TS (Frances, Hermine, Jeanne, Matthew) Cat 1 (Charley-Carolina, Gaston) Cat 2 (Alex, Frances) Cat 3 (Ivan, Jeanne) Cat 4 (Charley) a cat 5 would have mean that the USA would have experienced the landfall of each category of tropical cyclone in one season, for the first time in I beleive, ever


Hit for the cycle - never thought of it that way.


Yes, with special emphasis on the word hit. :eek:
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#14 Postby cyclonaut » Fri May 27, 2005 11:17 am

The planet does'nt play with odds.If the planet feels like spitting out some bigtime hurricane in our direction it will happen regardless of last season or 95.As we already know conditions are prime for plenty of activity..we know there will be storms out there soon..Where they go is anyones guess.They might all recurve or they might all hit land or a mix of the 2.

Take advantage of the supplies tax free week on supplies & be ready just in case.
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#15 Postby LSU2001 » Fri May 27, 2005 2:32 pm

I have a question and I am not trying to be a Smart A### but If i were to post that La. is overdue for a hurricane because we haven't been hit by a big one since andrew I believe people would say that "each year is its own year and there is no such thing as being overdue." However if someone says that "because last year was so bad a repeat is not statistically likely" this seems to be accepted. What is the difference in being overdue because you havent been hit and getting hit a bunch and not having this repeat. I am missing something somewhere guys. Please help clarify.
Tim
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#16 Postby x-y-no » Fri May 27, 2005 2:53 pm

lsu2001 wrote:I have a question and I am not trying to be a Smart A### but If i were to post that La. is overdue for a hurricane because we haven't been hit by a big one since andrew I believe people would say that "each year is its own year and there is no such thing as being overdue." However if someone says that "because last year was so bad a repeat is not statistically likely" this seems to be accepted. What is the difference in being overdue because you havent been hit and getting hit a bunch and not having this repeat. I am missing something somewhere guys. Please help clarify.
Tim


Well, if someone said "because last year was so bad a repeat is not statistically likely" that would be an error.

The point is that last year was way outside the statistical norm in terms of total landfalling intensity, particularly if you just look at Florida. So saying that another year like that is extremely unlikely is a statement which stands on it's own. It would be equally true if last year hadn't happened and we were just comparing to a hypothetical year like 2004.

OTOH, saying a particular location is "due" presumes a coupling which doesn't exist.

Jan
Last edited by x-y-no on Fri May 27, 2005 2:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#17 Postby dhweather » Fri May 27, 2005 2:54 pm

Instead of could this season rival 1995, how about

could 1995 rival this season :grrr: :grrr:
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#18 Postby mobilebay » Fri May 27, 2005 10:17 pm

dhweather wrote:Instead of could this season rival 1995, how about

could 1995 rival this season :grrr: :grrr:

Sorry man . Your correct. That is the way I should have said it. :eek: :lol: :lol:
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#19 Postby LSU2001 » Fri May 27, 2005 11:17 pm

Thanks X-Y-NO,
I think I understand the difference. It has been bugging me so I figured the best thing to do was ask. I understand stats but weather stats are so complex I don't even try to decipher them.
Tim
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#20 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat May 28, 2005 12:48 am

mobilebay wrote:
HurricaneBill wrote:Last year was like a horror movie!

I agree 100%. I remember thinking there is no way this storm is going to hit Florida too. I even remember posting a comment about Ivan saying there was no way it was going to Florida, that the odds was against it. The odds meant nothing last year. Although technically Ivan's Eye hit in Alabama, Florida got the worst by far. 8-)


Charley was bad enough, then came Frances.

When Ivan moved into the Gulf, I thought "Well, it is said things came come in 3s."

Yet, when Jeanne was looping towards Florida, I couldn't believe it.

Honestly, I think Jeanne was kind of a big slap in the face to Florida. She came back from the brink of denegerating into an open wave, looped back towards Florida, and hit as a major hurricane.

Did anyone else think "Betsy" when Jeanne curved back towards Florida?
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