Dr Gray raises his numbers again=15/8/4,June Update

[sponger]

My real concern with these conditions is a Gilbert type super cat 5 approaching the continental US. We havent really seen a storm close to that magitude in recent history come close.

I know any major hurricane will ruin your day, but a storm 1000 miles across doesnt have to hit a major population center to trump damage from last year or Andrew.

Does anyone remember how far the hurricane winds were from the center for Gilbert?

[chris_fit]

Ughhh

Guess my 9 tropical systems doesn't cut it anymore. lol

[MWatkins]

Hey guys I didn't want to start a new thread, but can someone tell me how the QBO winds help prevent hurricane development or do they limit the intensity. Dr. Gray doesn't seem too concerned with the African dust that could help prevent development in the eastern and central Atlantic, which is probably Not a good thing.

The theory was that the QBO winds (on major hurricane development)...which are way way up at the top of storms...when they were in the WESTERLY phase (I have seen some folks get confused by this as it is counterintuitive) they thought it produced less relative shear on hurricanes and allowed them to get stronger.

The net amount of shear was thought to be greater when the QBO is in an easterly phase...which supposedly kept stronger systems in check.

However...Dr Gray and the team has found that the QBO winds are no longer a good predictor since the basin has gone warm (we ased him that exact question 2 weeks ago) one way or the other.

MW

[tailgater]

Thanks MWatkins, I guess I understand a little more. There sure is alot of heat to transfer in the tropical Atlantic Basin and I'm sure Mother Nature will do just that,Just hope were not inthe way!

[vbhoutex]

My real concern with these conditions is a Gilbert type super cat 5 approaching the continental US. We havent really seen a storm close to that magitude in recent history come close.

I know any major hurricane will ruin your day, but a storm 1000 miles across doesnt have to hit a major population center to trump damage from last year or Andrew.

Does anyone remember how far the hurricane winds were from the center for Gilbert?

That was so long ago my memory is long past shot, but I want to say that they were up to 85 or more miles out at one point. I remember just being totally amazed(and frightened) at the size and intensity and thinking of the HUGE swath of destruction we had the possibility of being part of.

[dhweather]

Gilbert, had he made landfall in the US, would have shamed Camille, Andrew, and all of the others. That hurricane was a man among boys.


While Dr. Grey has pumped his numbers up big time, it doesn't
necessirily mean a lot. We could very well have 15 fish.

As Chris Landsea, Jack Beven and Stacy Stewart all said in
interviews with Mike Watkins - "It only takes one in your area"

So remember, be prepared - buy your supplies now, have your plan in place now, know exactly what you are going to do NOW.

[cyclonaut]

The only way it will be worse than last year is if a major meteo area receives a direct hit from a major hurricane. Last year, Charley made a direct hit on the center of Orlando; however, due to its small size, it only hit the city as a cat 1. Had it been larger, it may have been a strong 2 or even a 3 in the center of the city, which would have laid waste to much of the area (Charley was bad enough for the region). Also, Charley passed just 10 miles west of Havana, but brough nothing to the center of the city while totally leveling the western subarbs

Other than that happening, it wont top last year with its 6 tropical storm hits, 7 cat 1-2 hits, 10 cat 3-5 hits, the 40+ billion in damage, and the thousands killed. Barring a major strike on someplace like NYC, we aren't going to top that and last eyar will be the example as to what a truly bad hurricane season is

If a major hurricane hits Miami,Tampa,New Orleans or Houston directly it can & will be worse than the 4 landfalls we saw last season.

[boca]

I remember with Gilbert the winds in S FL were 25 to 35 sustained with gusts to over 40mph. The storm at its closest point was 400 miles away. Qiute a windfield.

[skysummit]

If a major hurricane hits Miami,Tampa,New Orleans or Houston directly it can & will be worse than the 4 landfalls we saw last season.

I'm very concerned about New Orleans right now....mostly b/c I live in the area. My reason is b/c of what happened during our last 2 major evacs. Georges caused an evacuation that the city has never seen before. All interstates were locked down to a hault...and for what? The storm turned at the last minute. Ivan caused another major evacuation of the city. Once again, the interstate system was extremely slow going with a lot of frustrated people...again, the storm turned. What will happen this year? Will NOLA get another threat and another major evacuation? If so, will the people leave or just say....heck, we left before for nothing, so why leave now? JUST LEAVE!

This morning at work, we had another hurricane conference call. During the year, we're mostly on storm level 1 - 3 (out of 5)...mostly for regular T-Storms. This morning, they already put us at hurricane level 5. They also ordered a LOT more vienna sausages and crackers!!!! Now, you know it's going to be bad!!!!

[canegrl04]

All I've got to say about his new update is .. WOWZA

[cyclonaut]

I wonder when its going to be a major metropolitan area's turn to get hit.As many hurricanes as there were last year they all stayed away from the big cities.Even Andrew missed the more populated areas of Miami-Dade County back in 92.The day that takes place its going to be a nightmarish situation for whatever big city it happens to.

[Agua]

They also ordered a LOT more vienna sausages and crackers!!!! Now, you know it's going to be bad!!!!

Yeah, those things are nasty.

[cajungal]

It would be scary if we have a double landfall like we had for Andrew and Betsy. Betsy made landfall at Key Largo. Second Landfall at Grand Isle, LA. Most of us were not born; yet for Betsy. So, I can't imagine the fury my mom and dad went through being in the eyewall. Betsy was huge! 600 miles across and her eyewall alone was 40 miles! Very unusual for such an intense storm. Grand Isle was hit with 155 mph. It is very likely Cat 5 conditions were felt there. My uncle had the pictures from Betsy. Thibodaux is not even on the coast and was further inland than it sits today. Yet, Thibodaux looked unreconizable. Like a war zone. My mom went 2 and half weeks without power. Try living in a home with 11 kids and no power! My dad and his family evacuated. But, came home to no power for 3 weeks, no water, and no phone service.
Sorry I am getting off topic and rambling about Betsy. But, she would of put my experience here with Andrew to shame. We are 20 miles closer to the Gulf than we were for Andrew in 1992, experts say. Due to Coastal erosion. So, if another Betsy hits this year it will be catostrophic.

It is going to a very active season, folks. And just wanted to show an example that even the "A" or "B" storm could really mess you up. Prepare! If you live south of 1-10, evacuate! Even if the storm turns the other way, better to be safe than sorry, right? Lots of people here in coastal Louisiana never evacuated for a hurricane threat and probably some never will.

[StormChasr]

Don't panic. EVERY year in the last 10 have been projected to be catastrophic. First, landfalling hurricanes are rare. Second, the conditions that existed where there was a "welcome home" trough over Florida last year are unlikely to repeat. Third, even if there are 20 NAMED STORMS, there are no certainties as to landfalls. Remember, the worst cane ever to cause havoc on the USA was in 1992--a SLOW year for hurricane development.

Last, the SSTs are warmer, but if you look at Cycloneye's SST anomaly for May 26th, the waters off of the Florida area are still COOLER than normal.

Theoretically, we are halfway through the active period as predicted (since it is assumed to have started in 1995, and cycles last 20-25 years generally). So, what is one to do--freak out every year for the next 10 years?? Naw, just be vigilant, and be prepared.

[cajungal]

Don't panic. EVERY year in the last 10 have been projected to be catastrophic. First, landfalling hurricanes are rare. Second, the conditions that existed where there was a "welcome home" trough over Florida last year are unlikely to repeat. Third, even if there are 20 NAMED STORMS, there are no certainties as to landfalls. Remember, the worst cane ever to cause havoc on the USA was in 1992--a SLOW year for hurricane development.

Last, the SSTs are warmer, but if you look at Cycloneye's SST anomaly for May 26th, the waters off of the Florida area are still COOLER than normal.

Theoretically, we are halfway through the active period as predicted (since it is assumed to have started in 1995, and cycles last 20-25 years generally). So, what is one to do--freak out every year for the next 10 years?? Naw, just be vigilant, and be prepared.

I am not panicking. I just want people to be prepared in case one hits. Not saying it will happen this year or 10 years from now. But, every hurricane season you should have a plan.

[rainstorm]

This...to me...is the most significant passage I have seen from their forecasts...ever. And I hope this makes the final draft because we have been hammering away on this for the last 6 months:

The reader will note that we have raised our forecast considerably from what the statistics would indicate. This is due to the fact that we are in a new active era for Atlantic major hurricane activity, and Atlantic SST conditions are close to being the highest on record. We believe these unusually warm Atlantic SST conditions are high enough this year that they will trump most of our usual seasonal statistical predictors shown in Table 1.

Atlantic SST conditions are close to becoming the HIGHEST ON RECORD.

Heck yeah they are...here's the latest Reynolds SST anom analysis:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

I mean...GOODNESS...I am usually the last to hype but have you seen this? The ENTIRE basin is running warm except off the Carolinas...and that should reverse as the mid-layer ridging kicks in next week. Look east of the Islands...+2C isotherms at least. And Africa? +3C? I have not seen this at this time of year...ever.

Well...there's a headline for us weather geeks...huh?

MW

one missed point? the azores high has been missing or very weak, allowing sst's to warm. recently, the azores high has grown and its just as possible the warm sst's will reverse as the cool sst's also reverse. just a thought

[cajungal]

ahm rainstorm.......

[WXBUFFJIM]

We had an almost similar active year in 2000 and we ended up with no hurricane landfalls in the United States. The bottom line is there is no relationship in my opinion between the # of named storms that occurs in a season versus the # of landfalls since there is lots of variability between the two.

I want to be honest though, I hope we don't have to deal with another 45 billion dollar hurricane season loss this season. '04 damage was 45 billion total. The key is to prepare early for the worse for the 2005 season, but hope and pray for the best.

Jim

[Anonymous]

My numbers (14/8/5) have never been too low since....I began giving my personal numbers in 2002.

[Brent]

one missed point? the azores high has been missing or very weak, allowing sst's to warm. recently, the azores high has grown and its just as possible the warm sst's will reverse as the cool sst's also reverse. just a thought

Rainstorm is back...