Camile not as bad as I thought!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

they weren't all wided out, only those in the streaks

Pensacola only received cat 1 winds from Ivan, not cat 2 winds

[Opal storm]

they weren't all wided out, only those in the streaks

Pensacola only received cat 1 winds from Ivan, not cat 2 winds

Nope,Pensacola was too close to the eyewall,we experienced between strong cat 1 to moderate cat 2 winds.If Ivan was about the size of Charley,then yes,we would've only seen cat 1 winds.

[Derek Ortt]

wrong again, Opal storm

no observations support cat 2 for your area. Keep deluding yourself that you experienced something stronger than you did and you'll end up like those fools who stayed near the water in Pierdido Key

[Opal storm]

wrong again, Opal storm

no observations support cat 2 for your area. Keep deluding yourself that you experienced something stronger than you did and you'll end up like those fools who stayed near the water in Pierdido Key

That's becuase all the wind instruments were broken.Trust me and everybody here that night that it was more then just cat 1 winds.Yeah yeah yeah,I'm just estimating, the winds were probly only 75mph,you have not experienced hurricane conditions...blah blah blah.The damage was just too severe,and the way the winds were constantly becoming more violent has the night went on,they could not of stayed in the cat 1 range all night.I'm not deluding myself,I'm posting my own personal opinion just like you are.I do have an advantage over this discussion considering I did experience the storm.

By the way,Perdido Key was a ghost town during the storm,those so called "fools" moved north and took shelter during the storm.You might have meant to be reffering to the Grande Lagoon area instead,they are located on the mainland.

[docjoe]

for what it is worth here is a link showing a wind contour map from ivan. it shows the 100mph line running roughly through pensacola. i in no way claim to be a professional of any sort here but i live in santa rosa county and it sure seemed like more than cat 1. i would appreciate an educated analysis of the contour map. thanks alot

docjoe

[docjoe]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... th_mph.pdf

the link works better if you actually post it!!

[Derek Ortt]

map seems to indicate that the 100+ m.p.h. winds remained over the water and barrier islands (is is typical) In Pensacola, winds seem to be 80-90 m.p.h., in the cat 1 range

[Brent]

I don't think the city of Pensacola proper experienced over 85-90 mph SUSTAINED winds with Ivan(Cat 2 gusts, yes). A lot of the damage near the water was from surge(which was actually low for what was supposedly a Strong 3). I think the area around the AL/FL border(RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) may have seen winds around 115-120 mph sustained at landfall.

Oh... and when Opal came through here in 1995(I am 4 1/2 hours from the coast), it was still a Cat 1. We were just outside the eastern eyewall and we had winds of 75-85 mph for several hours(in the middle of the night like Ivan) and gusts up to 90-100 mph. It was the 1st hurricane(and only one) I experienced, and yes, it felt scarier than a Cat 1, but it really was only one. We were lucky it weakened before landfall or it would have been much worse. That thing was racing northeast.

[Brent]

You may be correct. However, Frederic in 1979 was a solid 3. Pressure 942MB. Wind gust a Dauphin Island bridge was 144 MPH. When the bridge collapsed and no further readings was available. Wind Damage in mobile County was horrendous. It looked like a bomb had been dropped.

Yes... and if that were to hit today, in the same spot(west of Mobile Bay), the damage would be far worse than Ivan. The surge would come up into the Bay and flood the entire area(remember how we all thought it would happen with Ivan but it went to the east at the last minute?)

[dhweather]

I don't think the city of Pensacola proper experienced over 85-90 mph SUSTAINED winds with Ivan(Cat 2 gusts, yes). A lot of the damage near the water was from surge(which was actually low for what was supposedly a Strong 3). I think the area around the AL/FL border(RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) may have seen winds around 115-120 mph sustained at landfall.

Oh... and when Opal came through here in 1995(I am 4 1/2 hours from the coast), it was still a Cat 1. We were just outside the eastern eyewall and we had winds of 75-85 mph for several hours(in the middle of the night like Ivan) and gusts up to 90-100 mph. It was the 1st hurricane(and only one) I experienced, and yes, it felt scarier than a Cat 1, but it really was only one. We were lucky it weakened before landfall or it would have been much worse. That thing was racing northeast.

Yep, Auburn and Opelika took it on the chin from Opal.

[Brent]

I don't think the city of Pensacola proper experienced over 85-90 mph SUSTAINED winds with Ivan(Cat 2 gusts, yes). A lot of the damage near the water was from surge(which was actually low for what was supposedly a Strong 3). I think the area around the AL/FL border(RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) may have seen winds around 115-120 mph sustained at landfall.

Oh... and when Opal came through here in 1995(I am 4 1/2 hours from the coast), it was still a Cat 1. We were just outside the eastern eyewall and we had winds of 75-85 mph for several hours(in the middle of the night like Ivan) and gusts up to 90-100 mph. It was the 1st hurricane(and only one) I experienced, and yes, it felt scarier than a Cat 1, but it really was only one. We were lucky it weakened before landfall or it would have been much worse. That thing was racing northeast.

Yep, Auburn and Opelika took it on the chin from Opal.

I was about 30 miles north of there. By far the worst night of my life... we were at my grandparent's and about 10 trees came down that night in their backyard, one VERY close to the house about 10pm before the eye even arrived. Around 3am right before I fell asleep(things had calmed a bit by then)(under a mattress in the hall) we heard what sounded like a freight train. I still believe all these years later that it was a tornado. It never was confirmed(that I know of) because the tree and powerline damage was TREMENDOUS. There were huge power poles, and pine trees covering the roads for days. Not to mention countless limbs and other debris that were being cleaned up for weeks and weeks.

Oh and add that to the fact that my grandparent's had a leaky roof... during the hurricane.

[Scorpion]

I agree about overestimating the winds. During Frances here when I was out in the wind I estimated it to be sustained around 80 mph but now I know that can't be because I still could stand in it, and I saw true 80 mph winds on video and they looked a helluva lot stronger. Maybe 45-50 mph sustained. This leads me to believe that we didn't get hurricane conditions in my area(amazing how weak Frances was) but the damage was simply because of the duration of the TS winds. Everyone thinks they got a solid Cat 2 and 105 mph winds when this isnt true at all.

[SouthernWx]

Guys....in all honesty, it's extremely difficult to estimate sustained winds UNLESS you are right along the beachfront when a hurricane strikes (due to the effects of friction over land).

I have a Davis Weather Wizard III anemometer mounted 19' above the ground at my home....and in the four years it's been operational, the peak gust registered has only been 51 mph (which is IMO accurate since no large trees have been blown down, nor has any roof damage occurred in this neighborhood).

During the passage of Frances remains over this area last September, the wind literally "roared" in from the east and northeast....in huge "tree bending" gusts for several hours. Upon being awakened by the roaring noise I was at first thinking 60+ mph gusts....but upon checking my anemometer, the peak gust was only 46 mph (it reached 45 or 46 mph on numerous occasions that early morning, but no higher).

In fact, I owned another anemometer before the Weather Wizard III...an old "Tradewind" I purchased from Wind & Weather in January 1984. It was operational from Feb 1984 until October 1995, when it was destroyed by tropical storm Opal (tree blew down on it and my roof). Before Opal came through, the peak wind this previous anemometer (mounted 16' above the ground) ever recorded was 58 mph (twice, both times in severe t-storms which caused a tree or two to be blown down and minor roof damage in this area).

When T.S. Opal passed to the west of Douglasville, the anemometer needle reached 60-65 mph in gusts from the SE consistently, according to my uncle (I was living in Mississippi at the time), and reached a peak of 67 mph (from SSE)...apparently the very moment it was destroyed by a falling tree. Both he and my grandmother said the wind was roaring like a tornado....power was out, and they would have guessed winds were gusting over 100 mph EXCEPT for my wind gauge (vivid proof of folks overestimating wind speeds by a wide margin).

Since two nearby weather stations (KMGE and TWC headquarters) peaked around 70 mph in gusts, I theorize that was the case here as well (and wind damage in this area was consistent with 65-75 mph (F0-F1) gusts).

PW

[Brent]

Perry, I am terrible at guessing to. Most of the time I don't even say what the winds were unless I know for sure from a reporting station.

WOW... the NHC official report on Opal says the peak gust at AUO(Auburn) was only 45 mph. That is hard to believe after all the wind damage I saw.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html

I don't believe that... no gusts over 50 mph in the entire northern half of the state??!!!

[SouthernWx]

Perry, I am terrible at guessing to. Most of the time I don't even say what the winds were unless I know for sure from a reporting station.

WOW... the NHC official report on Opal says the peak gust at AUO(Auburn) was only 45 mph. That is hard to believe after all the wind damage I saw.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995opal.html

I don't believe that... no gusts over 50 mph in the entire northern half of the state??!!!

Brent, many weather stations in northeast/ east-central Alabama went down during Opal, mostly due to power outages. Look at when the peak gusts were recorded at stations such as Anniston (KANB)...hours before the center of Opal arrived.

I know there were 90-100 mph gusts near and east of Montgomery...and know winds along interstate 20 between Anniston, AL and Bremen, GA gusted to 80-90 mph...from the tree and roof damage I observed (I rushed home from Mississippi to assist my elderly relatives with the cleanup), so it's a good bet IMO peak gusts in Auburn were in the 80-100 mph range.

We were fortunate Opal weakened prior to landfall. My rough estimate is if landfall had occurred with Opal a 135-140 mph cat-4, winds would have gusted to near 100 mph at this location. I don't even want to think about what would happened if Opal had slammed inland with 155 mph sustained winds....while moving NNE-30 mph and such a large wind field (odds are you would have seen F2 wind damage in many areas of west metro Atlanta...millions of trees downed, and homes unroofed enmasse

[tallywx]

Actually, according to this particular study conducted by NOAA, comprising two wind mapping expeditions based on aerial review of damage patterns around Pensacola, wind GUSTS along the waterfront at downtown Pensacola reached 110 mph. A finger of maximum peak gusts around 130 mph occurred at Perdido Key. I'm not sure exactly how to translate peak gusts down to sustained winds, but I would assume that would be brought down to high cat1 for Pensacola, and low cat 3 for Perdido.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/data/pdfs/IvanPSDA.pdf


In case you're interested, similar studies were conducted for:

Charley
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/data/pdfs/CharleyPSDA.pdf

Frances
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/data/pdfs/FrancesPSDA.pdf

Jeanne
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/data/pdfs/JeannePSDA.pdf

[SouthernWx]

I have reasonable confidence that Ivan had sustained winds of 120-125 mph, at least over a small area near the Alabama/Florida border..

I base this on 1) Nexrad doppler velocity data from WSFO radar sites indicating wind speeds of 140-144 mph (122-125 kt) around 3000' feet above the surface, and 2) a peak gust of 145 mph measured on a sailboat anemometer (anchored just north of Orange Beach). Both give an estimated surface sustained wind of 120-125 mph.

PW

[Anonymous]

Oh I am sure. It was officially 120 mph sustained after the post-analysis.

[dhweather]

I have reasonable confidence that Ivan had sustained winds of 120-125 mph, at least over a small area near the Alabama/Florida border..

I base this on 1) Nexrad doppler velocity data from WSFO radar sites indicating wind speeds of 140-144 mph (122-125 kt) around 3000' feet above the surface, and 2) a peak gust of 145 mph measured on a sailboat anemometer (anchored just north of Orange Beach). Both give an estimated surface sustained wind of 120-125 mph.

PW

I've got family in Flomaton, AL - the area which you are tlaking about -
and there is no doubt, looking at pictures and hearing first hand stories,
that the winds were gusting between 100-120. The damage has
left a huge scar on the area, many trees down, still lots of blue tarp roofs,
it's a mess over there today.

[LSU2001]

Thanks for all of the discussion guys,
The main reson I started this thread was to highlight the overestimation of winds. Even if the windspeed indicators are wrong/destroyed the worst Pascagoula got was 100mph winds from camile. If this is indeed the case then I never repeat never want to live through a true 3,4, or 5 storm. Pascagoula in Aug, 1969 was bad enough for me. I also lived in Baton Rouge when Andrew came through and had heard somewhere that BR had sustained winds of 100mph. After posting that number on this board a fellow member corrected me and upon researching the winds found that the top winds for the BR area was around 74-78 mph. I guess overestimating and bragging about high winds is easy to do and not easy to admit. I am so glad that this board has so many "experts" that can cut through the hype and state facts. I also like the lively discussions that occur as I believe that knowledge comes through discussion.
Tim