Dr Gray raises his numbers again=15/8/4,June Update

[cyclonaut]

[quote="rainstorm[/quote]

one missed point? the azores high has been missing or very weak, allowing sst's to warm. recently, the azores high has grown and its just as possible the warm sst's will reverse as the cool sst's also reverse. just a thought[/quote]

You sure are a wishful thinker but I doubt there will be any cooling worth noting as we approach the summer months.The SST's are normally heading up this time of year regardless.

[cycloneye]

Ola from where you got this outlook as his May update will be issued on may 31.I ask because the site of Colorado University does not have it as it still has the april update.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

[x-y-no]

Ola from where you got this outlook as his May update will be issued on may 31.I ask because the site of Colorado University does not have it as it still has the april update.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

The link was in the original post:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/june_zzz/june05.html

Looks like this may be a draft that wasn't really supposed to leak yet.

Jan

[cycloneye]

Ola from where you got this outlook as his May update will be issued on may 31.I ask because the site of Colorado University does not have it as it still has the april update.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

The link was in the original post:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/june_zzz/june05.html

Looks like this may be a draft that wasn't really supposed to leak yet.

Jan

Yes he posted it but from where he got that draft is my question.

[x-y-no]

Yes he posted it but from where he got that draft is my question.

That's a Colorado State University machine. Same subdomain (atmos.colostate.edu) as the machine where the official forecast is posted.

[rainstorm]

the reason the sst's got so high is the absence of a high which didnt allow any upwelling. the situation is reversed now. the temps may rise, but the amount they are above normal will drop

[dhweather]

Ola from where you got this outlook as his May update will be issued on may 31.I ask because the site of Colorado University does not have it as it still has the april update.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

The link was in the original post:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/june_zzz/june05.html

Looks like this may be a draft that wasn't really supposed to leak yet.

Jan

Yes he posted it but from where he got that draft is my question.

google is a good thing.

[krysof]

About me decreasing my final numbers, that's now out of the question, I will post my final numbers tomorrow. The waters off the nj coast where I live a way below normal, will that continue, or is it because of the low pressure that stuck around since Monday, now it's gone?

[Brent]

About me decreasing my final numbers, that's now out of the question, I will post my final numbers tomorrow. The waters off the nj coast where I live a way below normal, will that continue, or is it because of the low pressure that stuck around since Monday, now it's gone?

Hurricanes typically don't form off NJ though.

[Andrew92]

Don't panic, just prepare for the worst. Especially with three analogs hooked up together for one hurricane season: 1995, 2003, and 2004. Panic will only make it worse; preparation can make it better if done well.

-Andrew92

[krysof]

I just want to know if they will warm up, I plan to go to the beach by the jersey shore probably in less than a month.

[Brent]

I just want to know if they will warm up, I plan to go to the beach by the jersey shore probably in less than a month.

How warm are they usually when you go???

[wxman57]

....Theoretically, we are halfway through the active period as predicted (since it is assumed to have started in 1995, and cycles last 20-25 years generally). So, what is one to do--freak out every year for the next 10 years?? Naw, just be vigilant, and be prepared.

Actually, the last warm period lasted from 1926-1969. That's 43 years. The warm periods seem to last a bit longer than the cool periods (which average 25 years).

[x-y-no]

the reason the sst's got so high is the absence of a high which didnt allow any upwelling. the situation is reversed now. the temps may rise, but the amount they are above normal will drop

Do you have data to back this up, or is it just a guess?

[rainstorm]

the reason the sst's got so high is the absence of a high which didnt allow any upwelling. the situation is reversed now. the temps may rise, but the amount they are above normal will drop

Do you have data to back this up, or is it just a guess?

any metro will back me up. the azores high has been much weaker than normal for months. thus the trade blowing over the tropical atlantic have been weak. no upwelling=warmer water. the same thing off the se coast. there has been persistent off-shore flow causing major upwelling and much cooler sst's. its reversed now. high pressure is established in the atlantic. stronger trades, more upwelling, cooler sst's. the high will cause onshore flow off the se coast pushing warm water back.
simple logic, the same thing that will cause the water to warm off the se, will cause the water to cool in the MDR

[sponger]

Makes sense with lack of upwelling due to lack of dominant high pressure. Maybe that is why all 95 storms were fish, except opal.

[cycloneye]

Makes sense with lack of upwelling due to lack of dominant high pressure. Maybe that is why all 95 storms were fish, except opal.

Whoa wait not all were fish in 1995.Luis and Marylin made landfall in the islands.

[x-y-no]

the reason the sst's got so high is the absence of a high which didnt allow any upwelling. the situation is reversed now. the temps may rise, but the amount they are above normal will drop

Do you have data to back this up, or is it just a guess?

any metro will back me up. the azores high has been much weaker than normal for months. thus the trade blowing over the tropical atlantic have been weak. no upwelling=warmer water. the same thing off the se coast. there has been persistent off-shore flow causing major upwelling and much cooler sst's. its reversed now. high pressure is established in the atlantic. stronger trades, more upwelling, cooler sst's. the high will cause onshore flow off the se coast pushing warm water back.
simple logic, the same thing that will cause the water to warm off the se, will cause the water to cool in the MDR

I understand the logic, what I was asking is do you have any data to show that the average winds and/or the vertical mixing have really been lower than average over the recent months? I haven't seen that data, and thought you might be able to direct me to it since you declared this so confidently.

Jan

[krysof]

also the carolinas still need warming up

[sponger]

Sorry Cyclone! I forget not all us us are continental us! I even surf Dean in PC that year which was a phenomenal swell. Even better than Opal for quality! I will correct and say 85% fish!