Dr Gray raises his numbers again=15/8/4,June Update

[Trader Ron]

WXBUFFJIM,

Where did you find the $45 billion figure. That seems high to me.

[sponger]

I think he is referring to the total loss, insured and uninsured for all the storms last year. Probably about right!

[Foladar]

I wonder when its going to be a major metropolitan area's turn to get hit.As many hurricanes as there were last year they all stayed away from the big cities.Even Andrew missed the more populated areas of Miami-Dade County back in 92.The day that takes place its going to be a nightmarish situation for whatever big city it happens to.

No more hits in Miami-Dade County please
Andrew literally destroyed the area I'm living in now.

[Anonymous]

Charley-15 billion
Frances-9 billion
Ivan-15 billion
Jeanne-6.9 billion

45.9 billion

[cycloneye]

Ok folks until the site of Colorado State University changes the April Update to the May 31 one the link above is not official.Maybe it is what will appear at the May 31 update with the increase of the numbers but I prefer to go with caution until it appears at the docs website.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

[b]

[vbhoutex]

I agree with Luis. Even though it is becoming pretty obvious that these will be his numbers, until Dr. Gray officially releases them we will regard them as unofficial. I have seen these numbers referred to by multiple professional and amatuer mets today so everyone is seeing it, so my guess this is what he will release, but I figure "better safe than sorry" and we call them unofficial till he actually publicly releases them.

[cycloneye]

I agree with Luis. Even though it is becoming pretty obvious that these will be his numbers, until Dr. Gray officially releases them we will regard them as unofficial. I have seen these numbers referred to by multiple professional and amatuer mets today so everyone is seeing it, so my guess this is what he will release, but I figure "better safe than sorry" and we call them unofficial till he actually publicly releases them.

Just in case something unexpected happens as we can say this is official and dang some changes arise.But I agree David that it is better to be safe and call it unofficial until it is shown at the Dr Grays site.

[rainstorm]

Predictor 2. April-May SST off the Northwestern European Coast (+) (30-45°N, 10-30°W)

Warm sea surface temperatures in this area indicate that the Atlantic subtropical ridge is weaker than normal, and therefore trade winds across the Atlantic are also weaker than normal. These anomalies in April-May correlate strongly with a generally warm Atlantic Ocean as well as with low sea level pressure throughout the tropical Atlantic during the heart of the hurricane season from August-October. Weaker trade winds and easterly anomalies at upper levels during the summer throughout the tropical Atlantic are also associated with this feature.

he is saying what i am saying. weak ridge=warmer temps.

however, the ridge is no longer weak:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

only time will tell of course

[x-y-no]

Predictor 2. April-May SST off the Northwestern European Coast (+) (30-45°N, 10-30°W)

Warm sea surface temperatures in this area indicate that the Atlantic subtropical ridge is weaker than normal, and therefore trade winds across the Atlantic are also weaker than normal. These anomalies in April-May correlate strongly with a generally warm Atlantic Ocean as well as with low sea level pressure throughout the tropical Atlantic during the heart of the hurricane season from August-October. Weaker trade winds and easterly anomalies at upper levels during the summer throughout the tropical Atlantic are also associated with this feature.

he is saying what i am saying. weak ridge=warmer temps.

however, the ridge is no longer weak:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

only time will tell of course

See my thread "Atlantic basin temperature comparisons, 2005 vs 2004" ...

There's more heat in the entire mixed layer across the entire basin than there was last year, as evidenced by the deeper 26 and 20 degree isotherms.

That disproves the hypothesis that the high SSTs are due to weaker mixing.

Jan

[Ola]

Cycloneye, since you ask how I found the info, here it is:

First of all you can go to :

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... april2005/

That is the april forecast. Then just delete the april2005 from the url and u get

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2005

In there you click on the june zzzz

There you will have a list of the info they have worked on already. Just click on the june05.html link and WOALA!

you can check the others out as well.

[Ola]

Oh BTW you can see there that it was posted on 26-May-2005 15:12

[cycloneye]

Ok thank you for clarifying that as it has not updated at the docs site and some may feel that the link that you posted was not good.

[rainstorm]

Predictor 2. April-May SST off the Northwestern European Coast (+) (30-45°N, 10-30°W)

Warm sea surface temperatures in this area indicate that the Atlantic subtropical ridge is weaker than normal, and therefore trade winds across the Atlantic are also weaker than normal. These anomalies in April-May correlate strongly with a generally warm Atlantic Ocean as well as with low sea level pressure throughout the tropical Atlantic during the heart of the hurricane season from August-October. Weaker trade winds and easterly anomalies at upper levels during the summer throughout the tropical Atlantic are also associated with this feature.

he is saying what i am saying. weak ridge=warmer temps.

however, the ridge is no longer weak:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

only time will tell of course

See my thread "Atlantic basin temperature comparisons, 2005 vs 2004" ...

There's more heat in the entire mixed layer across the entire basin than there was last year, as evidenced by the deeper 26 and 20 degree isotherms.

That disproves the hypothesis that the high SSTs are due to weaker mixing.

Jan

tell that to dr gray

[x-y-no]

tell that to dr gray

LOL!! Be as snotty as you like, but you ought to pay attention to what you're quoting:

"April-May SST off the Northwestern European Coast (+) (30-45°N, 10-30°W)"

He's not talking about the same region at all in your quote. The fact that the warmer SSTs off the Northwestern European Coast are related to a weaker ridge says nothing about the cause of the high SSTs in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

Now how about adressing the point I made? If the higher SSTs in the MDR were due to weaker mixing, one would expect the thermocline to be shallower. It is not - on the contrary it is deeper across the entire basin. How do you reconcile this with your claim?

Jan

EDIT: While you're answering that, you might also explain why you think a return to a normal strength in the trade winds would result in more cooling due to vertical mixing than last year, given that there's more heat throughout the mixed layer this year as opposed to last?

[msbee]

sponger...
Luis devastated our little island.
and Marilyn devastated St. Thomas
They definitely were not fish!

[SkeetoBite]

The following link will take you to a PDF file download of an analysis of the June 1st forecasts by Dr. Gray for each season compared to the actual observations for the entire season for each period since 1999. Note that this overview also includes the revised June 1, 2005 numbers, however, the revised 2005 forecast numbers are not included in the averages calculated for each category.

This file includes a variance report (from forecast) of the June 1st forecast numbers, several charts and the final two pages are the raw data.

Since our focus is the graphical dissemination of data, no effort was made to prepare a synopsis beyond our observation of the trend that Dr. Gray tends to be conservative in his forecasts.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/analysis/dr_gray.pdf

[drezee]

Let's not forget this persistent trough in the East this year. Much like 1995, it will deflect anything in the deep tropics. Any gulf system would be pulled N in most cases though...

[AussieMark]

When was the last time Gray predicted a season so busy?

did he in 1995 or was that season severely unpredicted?

[wxcrazytwo]

:eek:

He raised the numbers AGAIN

15-8-4

oooh, very similar to mine..

[mobilebay]

one missed point? the azores high has been missing or very weak, allowing sst's to warm. recently, the azores high has grown and its just as possible the warm sst's will reverse as the cool sst's also reverse. just a thought

Rainstorm is back...

One further note about the above poster. At the end of July last year she said the season was a dud!