When did the last monster hurricane strike a major city?

[senorpepr]

Hugo hit an area that had a 1989 population of 508.000. I'd say that was pretty significant.

Yes it was, but the idea of this topic was the following:

In my post, I clearly stated major metropolitan areas (MSA) with 1,000,000 or more population.....and impacted (direct hit) by the eyewall region of a category 4 or 5 hurricane; sustained winds 135 mph or greater.

FYI: here's the 2000 census rankings of MSA's, and there aren't that many in areas where 135+ mph hurricanes are possible (a landfalling cat-4 hurricane north of Cape Hatteras, NC is extremely unlikely).
http://www.census.gov/population/cen200 ... /tab03.txt

[Brent]

A quastion was the damage from Charley like Andrew?

Very similar. They were both about the same intensity and were both compact with their wind fields.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Your not going to get a Million plus City to be hit if it doe's not hit Miami Or New york or Maybe Houston. So the odds are not to high.

[senorpepr]

Your not going to get a Million plus City to be hit if it doe's not hit Miami Or New york or Maybe Houston. So the odds are not to high.

Exactly, the odds aren't high, but the results would be phenomenal. We've been lucky so far...

[StormChasr]

Okay, then given that criteria, only 4 or 5 areas on the list would qualify, based on probabilities of landfalling majors: Miami, Tampa, Houston, Fort Lauderdale, New Orleans, West Palm Beach, and Jacksonville. Houston is unlikely for a Cat 4 or 5, as it would probably not be Cat 4 or 5 strength in Houston after landfall on the Gulf.

[StormChasr]

We've been lucky so far..

I don't buy "lucky" after last year...sorry. I live in Florida.[/quote]

[SouthernWx]

My point is that Charley hit Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda with very strong category 4 force---population 140,000. It went on as a Cat 2 to hit Orlando, with over 2.5 million people, and still had sufficient strength to do siginificant damage to the Daytona area--population 450,000. If that isn't a catastrophic event, I don't know what is......does it really take a direct hit on Tampa or Miami to cause a catastrophe?

No, because Camille killed hundreds along the sparsely populated Mississippi coast in 1969....

Saying that, if you think the impact of a cat-4 blasting 140,000 is catastrophic, it pales in comparism to the impact of a 150 mph impact into a MSA of 3.9 million.

Charley was bad.....Charley slamming into downtown Tampa would have shut the city (and Hillsborough county) down IMO for months.

Carla was bad....but if a Carla-size/intensity monster blasts inland over Galveston Island then downtown Houston today, the economic and human suffering impact would affect everyone from coast to coast.

Bryan Norcross was quoted in August 1993 as saying "if hurricane Andrew had come ashore only twenty miles farther north in Dade county, there is considerable doubt as to if the city of Miami would be functioning today" (a year later).

If folks think Andrew was catastrophic, let the "Great Miami hurricane" occur again; a large 150 mph cat-4 crossing Florida from downtown Miami to Fort Myers....with Miami Beach going completely under water from a 13' storm surge -- and today over 7 million people living in the eyewall's path.

Charley was a pinprick compared to the bloodbath a large cat-4 hurricane would bring to Miami/Ft Lauderdale, Tampa/ St Pete, greater New Orleans, or the Houston/ Galveston area. I'm amazed anyone on this forum has difficulty seeing that..

My point is that the six or seven largest metropolitan areas located in hurricane prone areas haven't experienced the core of a catastrophic (140+ mph) hurricane in a very, very long time; not since they weren't very large or highly populated. It will happen again...and when it does, the carnage Charley and Andrew caused will look small by comparism.

PW

[SouthernWx]

Hugo hit an area that had a 1989 population of 508.000. I'd say that was pretty significant.

Not really....because anyone who knows anything about hurricanes should know the worst of Hugo; the north and eastern eyewall regions moved inland over sparsely populated areas northeast of Charleston. In fact, the peak winds and highest storm surge occurred in an area where very few people lived (and still there was over $7,000,000,000 billion in damage

[SouthernWx]

Okay, then given that criteria, only 4 or 5 areas on the list would qualify, based on probabilities of landfalling majors: Miami, Tampa, Houston, Fort Lauderdale, New Orleans, West Palm Beach, and Jacksonville. Houston is unlikely for a Cat 4 or 5, as it would probably not be Cat 4 or 5 strength in Houston after landfall on the Gulf.

A couple of points....

1) Houston isn't that far inland....especially considering Galveston Bay extends northwest to the eastern burbs of Houston. A large, intense cat-4 hurricane wouldn't weaken much between the GOM and downtown Houston. In 1961, Victoria, TX recorded 150 mph gusts as hurricane Carla passed nearby, and Houston is closer to the open Gulf than Victoria.

2) Several of the other large MSA's on that list are extremely vunerable to a severe hurricane. I know most South Floridians under age 60 won't believe it, but the beachfronts between Miami and West Palm Beach were obliterated three times by monster hurricanes between 1926 and 1947 (all three 140 mph or greater, and all three were much larger than Andrew). The 1926 hurricane smashed both Miami and Fort Lauderdale; the 1928 and 1947 hurricanes wiped out all of Palm Beach and most of Broward county....the 1947 monster caused 110 mph+ gusts from downtown Miami northward to Vero Beach (a swath 140 miles in width), and peak gusts over 150 mph in Broward and Palm Beach counties.

3) New Orleans is a sitting duck...and today well past their return period for a 130+ mph hurricane.

PW

[senorpepr]

We've been lucky so far..

I don't buy "lucky" after last year...sorry. I live in Florida.

You don't have to buy it, but you'll be thinking of 2004 as being lucky once a category four or five strikes a large city.

Also, Florida has it pretty nice -- only four hurricane strikes. Some places in this world have had many more strikes in one year and with more lower building codes.

[Cookiely]

My point is that Charley hit Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda with very strong category 4 force---population 140,000. It went on as a Cat 2 to hit Orlando, with over 2.5 million people, and still had sufficient strength to do siginificant damage to the Daytona area--population 450,000. If that isn't a catastrophic event, I don't know what is......does it really take a direct hit on Tampa or Miami to cause a catastrophe?

No, because Camille killed hundreds along the sparsely populated Mississippi coast in 1969....

Saying that, if you think the impact of a cat-4 blasting 140,000 is catastrophic, it pales in comparism to the impact of a 150 mph impact into a MSA of 3.9 million.

Charley was bad.....Charley slamming into downtown Tampa would have shut the city (and Hillsborough county) down IMO for months.

Carla was bad....but if a Carla-size/intensity monster blasts inland over Galveston Island then downtown Houston today, the economic and human suffering impact would affect everyone from coast to coast.

Bryan Norcross was quoted in August 1993 as saying "if hurricane Andrew had come ashore only twenty miles farther north in Dade county, there is considerable doubt as to if the city of Miami would be functioning today" (a year later).

If folks think Andrew was catastrophic, let the "Great Miami hurricane" occur again; a large 150 mph cat-4 crossing Florida from downtown Miami to Fort Myers....with Miami Beach going completely under water from a 13' storm surge -- and today over 7 million people living in the eyewall's path.

Charley was a pinprick compared to the bloodbath a large cat-4 hurricane would bring to Miami/Ft Lauderdale, Tampa/ St Pete, greater New Orleans, or the Houston/ Galveston area. I'm amazed anyone on this forum has difficulty seeing that..

My point is that the six or seven largest metropolitan areas located in hurricane prone areas haven't experienced the core of a catastrophic (140+ mph) hurricane in a very, very long time; not since they weren't very large or highly populated. It will happen again...and when it does, the carnage Charley and Andrew caused will look small by comparism.

PW

I can't remember the source now, but they ordered fifty thousand body bags for Tampa when we were under the gun. Fifty Thousand. I still can't comprehend or believe that we would have that many deaths.

[TheShrimper]

There was no comparison in the devestation caused by Charley and Andrew. I was in S. Dade, a day after Andrew struck. I was in the east eyewall on northern Pine Island when Charley hit Aug. 13. Andrew took off roofs because there were no block walls and tie beams left to support the trusses. Charley devistated an area that was comprised mostly of trailer parks and older homes. I have not seen a structure yet, that was leveled to the ground like I witnessed with Andrew. And I only saw the devistation on Krome Ave in Homestead and Fla. City. I never got any further east to Naranja, Cutler Ridge or Perrine. I saw all I needed in Homestead to realize how strong Andrew was. Not to downplay Charley's stregnth, as it is true that it devistated Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte in select areas, but if it was Andrew following that same path, all the structures on the barrier islands, Sanibel, Captiva and Boca Grande and any on the Peace River, would have been leveled. There would be no talking of reopening.

[AussieMark]

Was Betsy a 4 or a 3 when she hit Louisiana as unisys has her a category 4. She hit near New Orleans right?

[skywarn]

Was Betsy a 4 or a 3 when she hit Louisiana as unisys has her a category 4. She hit near New Orleans right?

[img]http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1965/BETSY/track.gif[/img
]

Winds in New Orleans were clocked sustained at 125mph. However down along the coast where she came inland (near Grand Isle) winds were clocked at 150mph until the anemometer blew away. Betsy was a Cat 4.

[Derek Ortt]

the 89 was a gust

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like Betsy was likely one of the closes a cat4 hurricane could get to New orleans. It would almost have to be moving northwestward into the bay perfectly for anyting more.

Did they retire it?

In remember New Orleans has huge flood gates. In Pumps.

[AussieMark]

Looks like Betsy was likely one of the closes a cat4 hurricane could get to New orleans. It would almost have to be moving northwestward into the bay perfectly for anyting more.

Did they retire it?

Yes Betsy was retired

[skywarn]

Looks like Betsy was likely one of the closes a cat4 hurricane could get to New orleans. It would almost have to be moving northwestward into the bay perfectly for anyting more.

Did they retire it?

A track about 90 miles to the right of the track she took would have been catastrophic for New Orleans. Betsy was retired.

[weatherwindow]

perhaps....new orleans, sept 1915..115kts....the population?

[Anonymous]

perhaps....new orleans, sept 1915..115kts....the population?

I would say no. That storm weakened to atleast a Cat 2 by the time it got to downtown New Orleans.