Warmer than normal SSTs--What does this mean?

[Anonymous]

I have noticed in the news that SSTs are running MUCH ABOVE normal in the atlantic and even warmest in history. They say this will make our hurricane season very active but what is the difference when it comes down to it between an 80f SST and an 85 or 90 temp? 80 is already good enough to support a hurricane so what diffrence does a few degrees more make? Once you get a TD/TS/Hurricane, you are usually concerned with upper winds and not SSTs as to how the storm will develop. Am I right in thinking that the difference may be the timing and not the severity of the season...the season may be longer in duration and start earlier because the temps are already above the hurricane threshold in more areas than is normal. But it wont have an effect on whether or not there are more majors? This is my interpretation and please correct me if I am wrong. Below are the current Hurricane potential maps...

[Derek Ortt]

it means el zippo unless other atmospheric parameters are favorable

Does not matter how warm the SST are if there is strong shear across the basin. Remember, waters were very warm in the Atl in 1997, yet only 1 storm formed in the MDR.

SST can aid in the intensification, but will not allow for intensification on its own (point was driven home to me last evening when discussing some of my research with my advisor that I am trying to get published, I proposed including SST along with shear and water vapor to explain some of the variance in intensity change, but we decided not to after she explained to me what I posted above)

[tallywx]

During the normal course of a normal year (with normal SSTs), what is the progression of factors that keep the Cape Verde system at bay? I figure that at first it's a combination of upper-level winds and low SSTs. Then, I assume that's followed by a period when upper-level winds are fine, but SSTs are still too low east of 40W? If so, would that imply that assuming upper-level winds come into line on a normal timetable, we won't have that SST-capping phase this time around, meaning an earlier start to Cape Verde?

[Valkhorn]

Is there a map of shear?

Is there even a map which incorporates the above map with a map of abated shear and favorable wind currents to yield a true maximum potential hurricane intensity?

It seems if there's not there should be one.

[Derek Ortt]

its mainly the SAL that holds CV waves at Bay.

In June, where the waves come off, SST are plenty warm; however, the SAL is very strong. Thus, when systems leave the monsoon trough right off of Africa, they die. That's why we sometimes see TD's (that are really TS's but are not classified as such) form right off of Africa, but then they die as the move west

[cyclonaut]

Well for this season it means that there should be lots of energy available for hurricanes to feed from.This season will be no 97 as that season we saw one of the strongest El Ninos in decades so since that is not anticipated at this time & atmospheric conditions should favor development @ time expect some big ones out there.