When did the last monster hurricane strike a major city?

[Scorpion]

I agree the major metro areas have been extremely lucky. Frances and Jeanne created a huge mess here and people thought it was the end of the world when we got TS sustained winds and a few hours of Cat 1 winds. I can remember many people saying "Oh I was out in the 105 mph winds" etc. When a major hurricanes core comes barrelling down the center of this county I doubt the area will look the same until at least another decade afterwards.

[SouthernWx]

perhaps....new orleans, sept 1915..115kts....the population?

As most of the deep south, southeastern Louisiana was sparsely populated in those days. New Orleans was a city in 1915, but I doubt the entire area had 200,000 residents at that time (and I mean all of southeastern Louisiana).

That was indeed a very intense hurricane......likely cat-4 at landfall near Grand Isle (based on pressure of 931 mb and 140 mph reported at Burrwood, LA); it caused extreme storm surge flooding from southeastern Louisiana into Mississippi....a storm surge over 16' feet in some areas.

Apparently the hurricane weakened rather quickly as it moved inland, passing over New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. The lowest pressure in New Orleans was reportedly 952 mb. While New Orleans was wrecked, this wasn't a catastrophic hurricane for the big easy (was late September...IMO it weakened as both Opal and Ivan did; still major, but weakening).


***
FYI: The major reason no monster cat-4/5 hurricane has struck a highly populated center is most southern coastal metropolitan areas didn't become highly populated until the 1970's....and there haven't been too many landfalling cat-4/5 hurricanes since 1970. What alarms me is we're now entering a new cycle of intense landfalling hurricanes....and now metro areas such as New Orleans, Houston, Miami/ Ft Lauderdale/ West Palm Beach, and greater Tampa Bay are packed to the rafters with millions of residents plus many vacationers and visitors; many more vehicles than the roadway systems can evacuate....and many residents living there who've never experienced the core of a major hurricane, and don't think it can happen to them.

We've had some near misses to major coastal cities since 1970, but so far have been very lucky. Unfortunately, it's only a matter of time until a large, intense hurricane doesn't weaken and veer NW as Frances did last season.....doesn't slam into Pensacola but instead plow New Orleans.....doesn't turn away at the last moment as Floyd did....or doesn't barely miss downtown Miami's skyscrapers and Miami Beach's condos as Andrew did...and when that day comes, we'll witness a horror IMO worse than our worst hurricane nightmares

PW

[tailgater]

Betsy probably came the closest to meeting that criteria but I don't it was a Cat. 4 at landfall.

[gatorcane]

Stormchasr, 89K winds are nothing compared to CAT 4 and CAT 5 winds. Orlando is always safe from a CAT 4+...it's too far inland...where you live in Daytona is *almost* always safe...major hurricanes hit from Stuart south along the East Coast....so you have no worries where you are at....

[gatorcane]

South Florida on the other hand as I have always reiterated is a disaster waiting to happen....Palm Beach/Miami/Ft. Lauderdale will be hit by a major hurricane at some point in the near future...and the damage will easily surpass any hurricane we have seen to this date, hands down...

[TampaFl]

My point is that Charley hit Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda with very strong category 4 force---population 140,000. It went on as a Cat 2 to hit Orlando, with over 2.5 million people, and still had sufficient strength to do siginificant damage to the Daytona area--population 450,000. If that isn't a catastrophic event, I don't know what is......does it really take a direct hit on Tampa or Miami to cause a catastrophe?

Stormchaser, with all due respect, the damage caued by Charley in Orlando and Daytona was not "castastrophic". If the roof of your home was blown off it might be "catastrophic" to you but not according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale:

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1-5 rating based on the hurricane's present intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding expected along the coast from a hurricane landfall. Wind speed is the determining factor in the scale, as storm surge values are highly dependent on the slope of the continental shelf in the landfall region. Note that all winds are using the U.S. 1-minute average.

Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.


Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Georges of 1998 was a Category Two Hurricane when it hit the Florida Keys and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.


Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.


Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.


Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. Hurricane Mitch of 1998 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity over the western Caribbean. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is one of the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclones of record. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

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Robert

[HurryKane]

In remember New Orleans has huge flood gates. In Pumps.

Which would be fairly ineffective if a huge (or even just a slightly on the big side) cane were to hit, from what I've read. It would take months and months to get the water out of there.

http://www.publichealth.hurricane.lsu.e ... 0Flood.htm

http://www.enquirer.com/editions/2004/0 ... wlins.html

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/ ... i_68642805

From the above link:

The turn of the century brought development to the lakefront. Flooding problems plagued the area. In 1920, the New Orleans Levee Board began a massive effort to hold back the lake. The city built a 200-acre, six-foot wall along the south shore of Lake Ponchartrain. By the mid-30s, the project was completed.

At the time, New Orleans was the economic center of the south. But a 1927 flood caused the banks to fear that the location was a threat to their economic stability, according to Charles Demas, head of the U.S. Geological Survey in New Orleans. The banks left for higher ground.

Another hurricane in 1940 overtopped the levee and flooded the city once more. Again, another levee was built that raised the existing levee a bit higher. In 1965, Hurricane Betsy overtopped that levee, and the city flooded again.

Today, water is still a problem. After several different levee systems and drainage canals, New Orleans is still wet. Twenty one pumping stations still pump the water back over the levees into Lake Ponchartrain. The water tables are still rising.

And hurricanes are still a concern. Scientists say that a hurricane of category 4 or higher would devastate the city, and the current levees and drainage measures would be rendered useless. "The biggest fear is a hurricane coming through Lake Ponchartrain with New Orleans being on the northeast quadrant of the storm's center," says Demas. "That's where all the rain's going to be."

[sunny]

In remember New Orleans has huge flood gates. In Pumps.

Which would be fairly ineffective if a huge (or even just a slightly on the big side) cane were to hit, from what I've read. It would take months and months to get the water out of there.

I've heard estimations of up to six months. As stated before, the water would have to be pumped out of New Orleans. If the city floods, the pumps go under and cannot work.

[wxman57]

Concerning the threat to the Houston/Galveston area - Houston is now the 3rd largest city in the U.S., behind New York and Los Angeles. An estimated 1.5 million of the more than 4 million people live along Galveston Bay south to Galveston. Shoud a Cat 4 hurricane move inland near or just east of Freeport, which happened 3-4 times from 1900-1949, then not only could Galveston experience another 16 foot storm surge (like the one that killed 8000+ in 1900), but the storm surge in shallow Galveston Bay could reach over 30 ft. This would inundate all of the area I circled on the image below (and more). Now this HAS happened in the past, but not since 1949, when development south of the downtown Houston are wasn't nearly as widespread as now. Fortunately, many of those people would be evacuated.

I-45 is only 5-6 miles from Galveston Bay, and lots of people live east of there. Downtown Houston is only 23 miles from Galveston Bay. But, more importantly, the highest storm surge would occur over northwest Galveston Bay into the Houston Ship Channel (over 30 ft). For those of you not familiar with this area, the bulk of the gasoline produced in the U.S. comes from refineries along the Ship Channel. We saw how gas prices spiked after only a tiny percentage of the output from the BP refinery in Texas City was affected by the explosion a few months ago. Imagine what gas might cost if all of those refineries were flooded and put out of comission for months? That's what happened in 1998 when the Chevron refinery in Pascagoula got flooded by Georges.

So a Cat 4 (even a Cat 3) hit just west of Galveston Bay could flood much of southeast Houston and have a major impact on the U.S. economy. I think we'd be lucky to see $10/gallon gas after such a hit. But who knows? It would take years for supply to catch up with demand, as all refineries are operating at 100% capacity and no new refineries have been built in 3-4 decades.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/houston.gif">

[Air Force Met]

Hugo hit an area that had a 1989 population of 508.000. I'd say that was pretty significant.

That's fine...and that would be a great topic for another post. That was not the point of this thread though. The topic was cat 4 or 5...and more than 1,000,000. That is not discrediting any other event...but just trying to raise the bar to the extreme example. Again...the point of this thread was not "significant" events...but Cat4/5 and 1 million people. Alicia was a Cat 3 in an area of a couple of million...and that was a big event...but yet it does not fit the criteria of this thread because it was cat 3.

[MGC]

Betsy may have been a weak 4 when it came ashore in 1965. The advisorises from the NHC say it had 150mph winds but back in the 60's winds were over estimated. In the last few hours before land fall, Betsy central pressure dropped from 951mb at 1340Z 9Sept to 946mb at 2106Z 9Sept. So, Betsy was intenisifying as she approached the Louisiana coast. Betsy's huge eye of 60 miles in diameter, passed just south and west of New Orleans. New Orleans reported sustained winds of 115mph prior to instrument failure. Thibodaux reported winds in the 130 to 140 range. The building I was in during Bety's passage was shaking like it was in an earthquake for a couple of hours.......MGC

[cajungal]

Betsy hit New Orleans in 1965 with 105 mph winds. But, she put water up the roofs of many homes. Lots drowned. She hit Grande Isle, (the barrier island directly to the south of NO) with 160 mph winds. New Orleans is closer to the Gulf than it was for Betsy due to coastal erosion. So, if the same storm was to hit today, it would be much worse.

Alicia hit Houston in 1983 as a Cat 3.

[Scorpion]

Are there any sat images of Betsy?

[cyclonaut]

Man I dont get the confusion on this thread..SouthernWx clearly states @ the beginning what the point is when he says...

So when did the last category 4 or 5 hurricane make a direct hit on a major metropolitan area

Charley might have been a major when making landfall in Punta Gorda but by the time he reached the Orlando area, as impressive as he may have been up there he was far from a CAT 4.

Hugo was a bad man but most don't really consider Charleston a major metro area along the same lines of a Miami,Tampa,Houston,New Orleans & even Jacksonville.Those would be the 5 major cities in the U.S. IMO that would stand the best chance to get hit by a major hurricane.Of course there is NYC & Washington but the chance of a CAT 4 or 5 up there are slim if any.

On to Houston...

Who said that Metro Houston could not recieve CAT 4 or 5 winds.A CAT 4-5 hurricane hits that area traveling @ even a modest pace will do some serious damage there & they will feel CAT 4 or even 5 winds there...Hope not but it can happen.Houston's right there off Galveston BAy...I don't see how they could not get it one day,it would have to strike at a certain angle but it certainly can happen.

Well to get to the point that this thread was initially about, I don't think that a major hurricane has directly made landfall in a major city like we know them today..The closest would have to be Miami in 26' but thats not the same Miami as today.If that same storm hit today in that same area it will make Andrew look like a spring shower..

Thats a scary thought!

[wxman57]

Alicia hit Houston in 1983 as a Cat 3.

Alicia hit Houston as a Cat 1, and only in extreme southern parts of Harris County. Though Alicia was carried as a Cat 3 at landfall, there were no official reports of 111+ mph wind, even in Galveston. Winds in Galveston were Cat 2 strength, around 90-100 mph. As for most of Houston, we saw generally 40-60 mph sustained wind with gusts near hurricane force. The center of Alicia went right over me. I went to the store down the street for ice while in the relative calm of the center. Don't count Alicia as a major hurricane hit in Houston. There was very little structural damage from Alicia, outside of damage caused by falling trees.

[Stratosphere747]

Hugo hit an area that had a 1989 population of 508.000. I'd say that was pretty significant.

That's fine...and that would be a great topic for another post. That was not the point of this thread though. The topic was cat 4 or 5...and more than 1,000,000. That is not discrediting any other event...but just trying to raise the bar to the extreme example. Again...the point of this thread was not "significant" events...but Cat4/5 and 1 million people. Alicia was a Cat 3 in an area of a couple of million...and that was a big event...but yet it does not fit the criteria of this thread because it was cat 3.

I'm always a bit confused on how Alicia is always talked about being a cat3 when she hit.

The highest sustained winds were only 96, which puts it on low end of a cat2??

[SouthernWx]

I'm always a bit confused on how Alicia is always talked about being a cat3 when she hit.

The highest sustained winds were only 96, which puts it on low end of a cat2??

At the time (August 1983), NHC had Alicia at 115 mph (100 kts) and central pressure of 962 mb when
landfall occurred. I was watching The Weather Channel as landfall occurred after midnight.

Alicia was a very small hurricane....and made landfall near the west end of Galveston Island, so it's possible there were cat-3 sustained winds (111 mph+) over a very small area....but they didn't extend to the city of Galveston, because there the highest sustained wind there was less than 100 mph. There was also a peak gust of 127 mph reported from a Navy ship in Galveston.

Storm surge heights reached 10-12' feet over portions of western Galveston Island (where over two dozen people drowned), so it isn't a stretch to say Alicia was at least borderline cat-2/3, and probably a weak cat-3 at landfall, based on the central pressure and small, tight eyewall (pressure gradient).

Obviously Alicia was NOT the "big one" for the greater Houston area; peak gusts only reached 94 mph at Hobby airport (and less than that in downtown Houston). Even so, downtown skyscrapers had many windows blown out....only a tiny sample IMO of the massive destruction that would result when and if another severe hurricane the size and intensity of the Sept 1900 (or Aug 1915) hurricane occur again.

PW

[southerngale]

Speaking of the 1915 hurricane, here's a pic from here. I believe it was taken in Port Arthur, but not certain. It could be Beaumont.

[Air Force Met]

Hugo hit an area that had a 1989 population of 508.000. I'd say that was pretty significant.

That's fine...and that would be a great topic for another post. That was not the point of this thread though. The topic was cat 4 or 5...and more than 1,000,000. That is not discrediting any other event...but just trying to raise the bar to the extreme example. Again...the point of this thread was not "significant" events...but Cat4/5 and 1 million people. Alicia was a Cat 3 in an area of a couple of million...and that was a big event...but yet it does not fit the criteria of this thread because it was cat 3.

I'm always a bit confused on how Alicia is always talked about being a cat3 when she hit.

The highest sustained winds were only 96, which puts it on low end of a cat2??

The highest winds were not 96...they were 115. IT made landfall on the west end of Glaveston. Just because the winds were only measured to 96 (with gusts to almost 130)...doesn't mean the storm wasn't a cat 3...it just means there were no wind instruments near where the right side of the eyewall went inland. Remember, this was in the days before doppler radar, internet weather sites with people and their systems linked in...etc. Back then...it was airports and NWS offices only (with an occasional ob from somewhere else). The system was very small...and with a pressure of 962mb...you can be sure it was bigger than a weak cat 2...strong cat 1....and besides...a $2 billion storm in 1983 would not have been done by a cat 1/2.

[Stratosphere747]

I'm always a bit confused on how Alicia is always talked about being a cat3 when she hit.

The highest sustained winds were only 96, which puts it on low end of a cat2??

At the time (August 1983), NHC had Alicia at 115 mph (100 kts) and central pressure of 962 mb when
landfall occurred. I was watching The Weather Channel as landfall occurred after midnight.

Alicia was a very small hurricane....and made landfall near the west end of Galveston Island, so it's possible there were cat-3 sustained winds (111 mph+) over a very small area....but they didn't extend to the city of Galveston, because there the highest sustained wind there was less than 100 mph. There was also a peak gust of 127 mph reported from a Navy ship in Galveston.

Storm surge heights reached 10-12' feet over portions of western Galveston Island (where over two dozen people drowned), so it isn't a stretch to say Alicia was at least borderline cat-2/3, and probably a weak cat-3 at landfall, based on the central pressure and small, tight eyewall (pressure gradient).

Obviously Alicia was NOT the "big one" for the greater Houston area; peak gusts only reached 94 mph at Hobby airport (and less than that in downtown Houston). Even so, downtown skyscrapers had many windows blown out....only a tiny sample IMO of the massive destruction that would result when and if another severe hurricane the size and intensity of the Sept 1900 (or Aug 1915) hurricane occur again.

PW

Good points Perry..

But I would think that if the NHC is going to go by the SS, then they should have a official or verifiable reading of 111 or higher, before they claim that Alicia was a 3. I think it was Derek who mentioned he had his doubts that she was indeed a 3, and probably more like what Claudette was a few years back.

IMO the SS scale needs to be either scrapped or updated. Complacency is created when people think they have "survived" a certain level of a hurricane.

In this case, so many Texans claim that they have been through a category 3 hurricane, when in fact they have not even been close to experiencing what a true 3 can do.

As you mentioned though, the destruction that a 4/5 will create in either Houston/Miami/New Orleans... Will go down as the single biggest natural disaster in our history. Replacing the 1900 cane, not due to loss of life, but due to the economic impact that it will have on our nation.