Atlantric Ridge Building/Getting Into Position

[TampaFl]

It appears that the Atlantic Ridge is finally building and starting to get into position for the summer. The ridge has been mostly absent from the Florida weather scene this May as the ridge axis has been located to the south of Florida. For most of this month we have had mostly west to southwest winds here in the Tampa Bay area with very little to no rainfall as it (rainfall) is all along the interior and east coast. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dlm3-1.GIF

Robert

[rainstorm]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

[Anonymous]

It appears that the Atlantic Ridge is finally building and starting to get into position for the summer. The ridge has been mostly absent from the Florida weather scene this May as the ridge axis has been located to the south of Florida. For most of this month we have had mostly west to southwest winds here in the Tampa Bay area with very little to no rainfall as it (rainfall) is all along the interior and east coast. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dlm3-1.GIF

Robert

If this is the case, Lookout Gomex Absolutely nothing will hit the east coast! I doubt this is the ultimate location of the ridge this early though.

[canegrl04]

"If this is the case,Lookout Gomex


I think we will see more GOM systems than last year

[skywarn]

"If this is the case,Lookout Gomex


I think we will see more GOM systems than last year

I agree.

[cajungal]

I think that LA/TX might see some action this year.

[Rainband]

Good, Florida needs a break.

[BayouVenteux]

...I doubt this is the ultimate location of the ridge this early though.

I totally agree Jek. Waaaay too early to make a call on the mean position of the ridge as it relates to the August-October "peak" period. Mid-to-late July we can start talking in real terms.

[cyclonaut]

You guys are'nt thinking that because this is where the ridge is setting up that this where it will be all season!

It will fluctuate & center itself in different position through out the season & not even be there sometimes!.Yeah one could say Florida needs a break but lets not say that based on where this high is setting up now.

[TS Zack]

It really defeats the purpose!

The Bermuda-Azores High will fluctuate on a week to week basis. Until a storm is out there, we should not even think about forecasting it. Its all about the timing of the storm and where the Ridge is at that time.

[southerngale]

You guys are'nt thinking that because this is where the ridge is setting up that this where it will be all season!

It will fluctuate & center itself in different position through out the season & not even be there sometimes!.Yeah one could say Florida needs a break but lets not say that based on where this high is setting up now.

Maybe some people don't understand exactly how it works. Lord knows I'm still learning basic stuff every day!

[StormChasr]

Maybe some people don't understand exactly how it works. Lord knows I'm still learning basic stuff every day!

Exactly. Isn't it a little early to speculate as to lanfalls? The Poisson Distribuition does NOT accurately predict landfalls, and even the best experts such as Drs Gray and Landsea don't try to play Swami with regard to landfall predictions. It is one thing to forecast an active season (logical), but landfalls? I don't think so.

[x-y-no]

The Poisson Distribuition does NOT accurately predict landfalls,

Well, of course not! Poisson means "fish" - so by definition it wouldn't have anything to do with landfalls, right?

and even the best experts such as Drs Gray and Landsea don't try to play Swami with regard to landfall predictions. It is one thing to forecast an active season (logical), but landfalls? I don't think so.

In all seriousness, I pretty much agree with you. I think it's probably possible to skillfully predict "high landfall" vs "low landfall" years - but predicting what areas will be hit is a guessing game.

Jan

[Amanzi]

The Poisson Distribuition does NOT accurately predict landfalls,

Well, of course not! Poisson means "fish" - so by definition it wouldn't have anything to do with landfalls, right?
Jan

LOL... I like that! Funny.

[cyclonaut]

You guys are'nt thinking that because this is where the ridge is setting up that this where it will be all season!

It will fluctuate & center itself in different position through out the season & not even be there sometimes!.Yeah one could say Florida needs a break but lets not say that based on where this high is setting up now.

Maybe some people don't understand exactly how it works. Lord knows I'm still learning basic stuff every day!

True...I'll have to agree with that.

But just the same some do know how it works more or less & it surprizes me to hear those people say what they say.

[gatorcane]

TampaFL, the May weather pattern in FL is alot different than last year. I was in the Tampa area last year and we saw a nice E windflow build in across the peninsula which gave the west coast of FL a hint of the August afternoon-evening summertime thunderstorms. That was a rare occurrence for May and I found it a bit odd. I predicted an above average rainy season for the west coast. Little did I know that these dominant E winds were the Bermuda High building in early which steered all 4 storms into FL!

Now this year we don't see much ridging at all. Here in S. Florida where I live now the westerlies have dominated for the most part...we've even seen highs get into the mid 90s along the immediate coast which is rare, they typically don't get above 90 if we are in the E wind pattern....storms have been moving in off the Everglades as well ruining quite a few beach days

BUT, I can't say what this means for the hurricane season...I am leaning more towards GOM and Caribbean activity for FL this year with an above average Atlantic season. However I think most Atlantic storms will curve out to sea. There is still always the possibililty of an Atlantic storm making it all the way to FL from the East coast but I think the chances are alot lower this year than last year given May's patterns. I really think May tells alot about the upcoming season.

[dhweather]

You guys are'nt thinking that because this is where the ridge is setting up that this where it will be all season!

It will fluctuate & center itself in different position through out the season & not even be there sometimes!.Yeah one could say Florida needs a break but lets not say that based on where this high is setting up now.

Yep - the ridge will fluctuate, move around a little, that is normal.
Nothing is really static in the atmosphere.

[dixiebreeze]

Based on just about nothing, I do have a hunch about Galveston this season. Just a hunch that keeps returning

[StormChasr]

f this is the case, Lookout Gomex Absolutely nothing will hit the east coast! I doubt this is the ultimate location of the ridge this early though.

It is a little early to make that determination, as ridges and troughs are not static, but shift week to week. It is probable that the same setup from last year will NOT be in effect, as that was a low probability setup. However, there are no assurances that this is the case. "Blocker" troughs can disappear and retreat, or stick around--let's wait and see.

[Wpwxguy]

Sometimes the western edge of the Bermuda High will be barely over Florida and at times will expand westward as far as Louisiana . This is the scenario that brought Hurricane Elena into Bay St. Louis Miss. in 1985. She was going inland on the Florida peninsula and the high strengthened and pushed her west. So even though its in one place at a given time, that does not mean that it will stay there. Storms will actually ride the periphery of the high like a horse in a corral. My prognostication is for a busy Gulf this year due to a strong Bermuda high. Sometimes it will just sit for weeks on end before retreating back into the Atlantic. Guess we'll see what transpires this go round.

Bill