"The Big One for the Big Easy" by Mike Naso

[Scorpion]

Very frightening scenario, although im not sure the strengthening of this system is very realistic.

[krysof]

very dangerous for New Orleans, Miami as well, I wonder what would happen if a category 5 were to hit directly new york city, moving very rapidly catching people off guard, can't escape. Damge costs.

[wxman57]

I saw a good presentation concerning this New Orleans scenario at the southeast electric mutual aid conference last year. They estimated that of the million or so people around New Orleans, that perhaps 60% would evacuate before the hurricane hits, leaving around 400,000 in New Orleans. Of those, perhaps 25% would drown (maybe more). New Orleans would be underwater for months, as there would be no way to pump the water out until all the pumps were replaced And power could not be restored until each and every building in New Orleans was inspected. So New Orleans could well be uninhabitable for 3-6 months.

[LAwxrgal]

Mike,

I woke up to your thread this AM, and have to say that your scenario could be frightening for my area.

First of all, not only do most of the people who live in this part of town NOT have homeowner's insurance, but many of them are poor and minority, who, unfortunately, would be the least likely to evacuate. They are also the least likely to take these things seriously. In that type of scenario, where flood waters come in from Lake Pontchartrain, a massive loss of life would occur, and entire towns would be wiped out.

Not only would we have to worry about flood waters from the lake but also the Mississippi River. Don't forget that this whole area is "protected" by a 20 foot wall of grass and dirt called a levee system. If rainfall, combined with wind, push the river over flood stage, the river water overflows the levees, or creates a breach through which water from there flows.

A comment on the track -- most storms that ride the coast like that weaken over land. You seem to be describing a slow-moving rainmaker. Most hurricanes take more of a northerly component after landfall than what you've shown, as they're picked up by a trough of some sort.

Now, if the storm were to have hit downtown Miami FIRST, as Derek described, causing mass destruction and massive loss of life there, and then were to turn WNW and then NW making landfall at Lake Pontchartrain (as I think a storm was forecast to do in about 1995 or so but the storm ended up hitting the FL panhandle instead) that would be a complete disaster that would take many years to recover from.

Government resources, already stretched thin, will be stretched thinner, and many people's patience will be tried.

Them's my sentiments. I might have more later after I've had breakfast.

[skysummit]

It is a very scary idea that will happen one year. The repliers are correct in their responses to this scenario. New Orleans is like on an island. All arteries out of the city cross water at some point. The Causeway will will be of total devistation. I-10 east crosses the twin span, a 4 mile bridge over the eastern pass of Lake Ponchartrain. I-10 West also crosses a stretch of Lake Ponchartrain, along with the Spillway. Hwy 90 West goes down into swamp country and heads much closer to the GOM. There are a few alternate routes out of the city, but those being on ground level, will also be covered by water shortly after the water begins to rise. With SE La. being so close to sea level, the water begins rising well before the storm hits.

After the storm moves out, areas outside of New Orleans will drain much faster...probably a week or two, but New Orleans will take months. One studay showed a slow moving cat 3 putting New Orleans in 14 - 18 feet of water for 6 - 8 months. When Juan caused all his flooding, I was living 40 miles south of New Orleans and we had 4 feet of water for 1 1/2 weeks. Juan barely had winds of 74mph. Put it this way, we didn't even have TS force winds where I was.

The worst case for New Orleans would be for the storm to come in between Grand Isle and the mouth of the Miss. River moving Northwest very slowly. That would push the water in from the Miss. River, Lake Borgne, Lake Ponchartrain, and all the surrounding marshes. Just imagine it....we'd have not only snakes and many many dead animals floating around, we'd also have LOTS of alligators.

[Radar]

If a Catagory 5 were bearing down on Louisiana the cone of possibility at 72 hours out would probably encompass all of LA, Some of West TX and the MS Gulf Coast. Can you imagine the amount of people of who would be thinking of voluntarily evacuating "just in case". "OMG it is a cat 5, maybe we should leave just in case." SO a guy in Port Arthur, TX decides to visit his brother in Shreveport and a lady in Pascagoula decides to head over to her Aunt's condo in Destin Florida. BUT then at 72 hours there are those who are thinking "IT's anyone's ball game, I'm just gonna sit it out and see what happens." So this family in N.O. are just gonna wait and see if it turns or not. At 48 hours mandatory evacuations are finally given for Louisiana from Lake Charles to Biloxi... Here we go again a repeat of Hurricane Ivan... How many do you think are going to wait and see if it turns or not as to not repeat the mess we had in 2004 with Ivan? Will the "Ivan Experience" have had that much of a negitive impact on us that it could endanger lives?

[skysummit]

Will the "Ivan Experience" have had that much of a negitive impact on us that it could endanger lives?

I believe it will. They will most likely say "it'll turn", or "it won't hit here". Hopefully our local mets will express out intense the storm is and how important it is to leave.

[TS Zack]

Put it this way, I don't care what army you have, you will not get into New Orleans. Not one interstate, highway, or backroad gets out of this city unless it is on a bridge.

I-10 East.....Twin Spans(Bridge)
Causeway(Bridge)
I-10 West.....Spillway(Bridge)
Hwy 90 East....(Bridge)
Hwy 90 West...(Goes Through Des Allemands..Underwater Easily)
River Road....(Don't Think It Will Be There)

I Hope The Army Has A Plan To Get Here On Boat. Still will not see any homes they will be underwater. New Orleans is screwed! Our Emergency Managers are not prepared nor ever will be. Last Year, the new Contra-Flow didn't work like they said it would. Anything they say never works.

The Worst Case would be between Grand Isle and the Mouth but moving North to where the eye passes right over New Orleans East. This will cause all the water to be pushed in from the East then the backside would be Northerly Winds topping the levees of the Southern portion of Lake Pontchatrain. Therefore sending all the water right into New Orleans. The river rose during March, we almost had to open the spillway and that was from the rains up North, I do not want to see a Hurricanes Surge.

BTW, Thanks Mike. You really care for your Co-host!

[cajungal]

What if Hurricane Audrey hit New Orleans instead of rural Cameron Parish? 500 people died there from the surge alone.

Audrey formed on June 25, 1957. And was a monster Cat 4 on June 27th and sped up.

[MGC]

Thats right Zack, the only access to the New Orleans area will be by boat or aircraft. The Mississippi Gulf Coast would also be destroyed by a hurricane of that magnitude on that track. Sure would be bad here. Good bye casinos....MGC

[Anonymous]

Very frightening scenario, although im not sure the strengthening of this system is very realistic.

If Charley strengthened 40 mph in two hours...whats to say this storm could not stregthen 50 mph in 24 hours?

[skywarn]

A very real possibility.It's not a matter of "if" but "when".

[LaPlaceFF]

VERY SCARY Indeed!!!!

[tailgater]

While there is a chance the Big One could hit the Big Easy, I wouldn't say it's a matter of when.
Only 2 or 3 Cat 5's to hit US mainland in recent history and a track and time schedule such as the one described above. It would be Highly Unlikely(not impossible).

[Brent]

What about a storm that levels Miami and then hits New Orleans? A stronger Georges(a little farther north over Florida and a little farther west in LA) and you'd have your nightmare.

[Radar]

Well certainly the possibility of a Cat 5 would be more unlikely then a 2 or 3 because Catagory 5's generally are much more rare. But we are talking about a city that is below sea level to give you a visual it has been discribed as a bowl. So even a large Cat 2 or 3 that is a slow moving and big rain producer could have a catastropic effect on New Orleans, much more so then on any other city in the US.

[skysummit]

What if Ivan wouldn't have turned? It would've came ashore somewhere near the mouth of the Miss. River. One turn saved thousands of lives, yet still caused massive destruction.

[Brent]

What if Ivan wouldn't have turned? It would've came ashore somewhere near the mouth of the Miss. River. One turn saved thousands of lives, yet still caused massive destruction.

The massive destruction that had occurred over AL/FL would have PALED in comparison to the damage over SE LA. It would have been SO much worse.

[Derek Ortt]

if a storm came in at the mouth of the Mississippi, it would still likely weaken by about 2 categories before reaching New Orleans, as Betsy did in 1965. Even though its swamp land, a hurricane needs much more water than that to survive.

The storm forecast to make a direct hit on New Orleans in 1995 was Erin, an that would have hit from the east, which means directly into the city. Not only then wouldwe have the surge, but vertical evacuation is then out of the question because we'd have 140 m.p.h. winds as well blowing out all of the upper floors

As for NYC, if a 4 or a 5 were somehow to hit (probably mving NNW so that it doesn't leave the Gulfstream until about 38N), good bye USA. Not sure if our economy would ever recover then as the damage would probably be from 500 billion to 1 trillion (not to mention the damage to NJ, Connecticut, RI, and Mass

[Radar]

What if Ivan wouldn't have turned? It would've came ashore somewhere near the mouth of the Miss. River. One turn saved thousands of lives, yet still caused massive destruction.


Being from the MS Gulf Coast area I shudder at the thought.... However, at one point we were bracing for it and the MS Gulf Coast area was a big part of the mass Exodus headed North. Although I didnt wish it on the FL panhandle and AL Coast residents, Ivan's turn was the best case scenario for us.